Massive Token Unlock Approaches: Is TIA Set for a Major Shift?
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Massive Token Unlock Approaches: Is TIA Set for a Major Shift?
At 10 PM tonight, Celestia will unlock 175.59 million TIA, worth approximately $900 million.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Taran, Founder of STIX, an OTC trading platform
Translation: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily
Editor's note: Celestia is set to unlock 175.59 million TIA tokens at 22:00 Beijing time tonight, worth approximately $900 million, accounting for 79.91% of the current circulating supply. This is one of the largest and most closely watched token unlocks in the current market cycle. Regarding the post-unlock market structure of TIA, Taran, founder of OTC trading platform STIX, provides a professional analysis based on on-chain data, futures data, and STIX platform data. Taran believes that the actual spot selling pressure is not as high as the market imagines; moreover, short positions established earlier for hedging purposes will need to be covered, further offsetting spot selling pressure; additionally, the majority of unlocked tokens have already changed hands via the OTC market, adding further complexity to TIA’s future price dynamics.
The following is Taran’s original article, translated by Odaily Planet Daily.
This chart outlines the new circulating supply of Celestia (TIA) on October 31, 2024. I will explain these figures in detail below.
We used on-chain data (sourced from Celenium) to accurately calculate changes in TIA’s circulation after November begins. Our final conclusion is that approximately 92.3 million TIA tokens are expected to enter circulation after the unlock—this represents the upper limit of new spot selling pressure.
TIA staked in the network requires 21 days to unstake. Anyone wishing to trade TIA immediately on the October 31 unlock date would have already initiated the unstaking process. Currently, the total amount of “unstaked tokens” (including 24.1 million tokens belonging to insiders, whose status is uncertain) plus tokens “in the unstaking queue” amounts to roughly 92.3 million TIA.
This translates to a maximum potential sell-off of about $460 million—approximately 50% of the total unlock volume—indicating that actual selling pressure may be only half of what many expect.
When comparing this newly added supply against the existing circulating supply, it implies a 41.8% dilution in circulation.
A significant portion of the unlocked tokens has already changed hands through the OTC market. Buyers typically hedge their positions in the futures market, which has driven TIA’s funding rates to surge over the past few months. We expect that after the unlock, short positions in the futures market will be reduced, partially offsetting spot market selling pressure. This capital reallocation pattern could serve as a bullish signal for spot buyers.
Our analysis assumes that 11 million TIA tokens (excluding those subject to subsequent linear vesting) scheduled for tonight’s unlock have already been traded over-the-counter. We have categorized these into the “unstaked tokens” group (originating from treasury addresses, unmarked on block explorers). In total, we mapped 292 unlock addresses, with some remaining unmapped—the difference has also been included in the “unstaked tokens” category.
STIX has observed the evolution of TIA OTC trading throughout this market cycle.
Undoubtedly, TIA has been one of the most actively traded assets in the OTC market during this cycle. The primary reason is that early in the cycle, TIA offered directional buyers an early opportunity to take long positions. Sellers also had their motivations—to realize substantial unrealized profits (PNL), or because they failed to anticipate the upcoming bull market (which began in Q3 2023).
By Q1 2024, the bull trend was firmly established and TIA had risen above $20. At this point, OTC activity dwindled. On one hand, sellers were unwilling to accept large discounts (40%+); on the other, buyers were reluctant to bid too high (above $8.50). OTC trading activity nearly disappeared, as sellers generally felt they had "already made enough," preferring to maintain risk exposure despite having the chance to cash out gains of 100x to 800x.
The situation shifted when TIA dropped below $5—coinciding with the Celestia Foundation raising $100 million through an OTC funding round priced at $3 per token. Buyers in this round received the same lock-up terms as private investors: 33% unlocked on October 31, 2024 (less than two months from the fundraising close), followed by linear vesting over the next 12 months.
In Q3 and Q4 2024, TIA saw highly active OTC trading, with sellers aggressively offloading various tranches, including initial unlock portions and future vesting slices. On STIX alone, TIA OTC trading volume since July has reached approximately $60 million. Assuming STIX holds around 75% of the OTC market share, this suggests total TIA turnover across all OTC liquidity channels likely exceeded $80 million.
TL;DR
In summary, short positions in the futures market are likely to be progressively closed ahead of the unlock date, potentially resetting funding rates to zero or positive levels. Those who missed the October 9 deadline for initiating unstaking may do so later in October, leading to further increases in circulating supply in November. Regardless, the scale of new supply is enormous—this is one of the most widely known unlock events of the current cycle—and combined with the impact of OTC trading, it may make TIA’s future price trajectory even more unpredictable.
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