TechFlow news, July 22, according to Wintermute OTC trader @Jjay_dm's article, June CPI decreased 0.4% month-on-month, the largest single-month drop since April 2020, overall inflation fell from 4.2% to 3.5%, the market immediately priced in stand pat for the July FOMC, and the probability of a rate hike in September also dropped from over 75% to 63%. However, the US resumed naval blockade on Iranian ports and conducted air strikes for the fourth consecutive night, Brent crude oil surged 15.54% in a single week, reaching a high of $87/barrel, pressure for energy inflation rebound is accumulating, making the sustainability of this CPI drop questionable.
Meanwhile, China's Moonshot released open-source model Kimi K3, claiming performance comparable to OpenAI and Anthropic frontier models, directly impacting the AI compute narrative, TSMC fell 7% in a single day, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recorded the worst single-week performance in 15 months, Nasdaq fell 4.16%, Nvidia once yielded the top global market cap throne to Apple.
The crypto market went against the trend and strengthened, becoming the best-performing risk asset this week. Within minutes after the CPI data release, BTC rose from about $62,000 to $64,900, ETH jumped 7% in a single day to $1,884, CoinGlass data showed about $134 million in short positions were liquidated in the first hour. BTC ETF net inflows totaled about $191 million on Tuesday and Wednesday, ending the previous 10-day net outflow, but compared to the record $4.5 billion single-month net outflow in June, it is still a drop in the bucket. In addition, the US government transferred confiscated assets from the Farace, BTC-e, and Krewson cases totaling about 3,800 BTC and 30,000 ETH (about $288 million) to Coinbase Prime, currently there are no signs of selling.
Wintermute pointed out that this week's crypto market strength reflects more market structure repair than trend establishment, if ETF net inflows can last the whole week and BTC holds steady above $66,000, then the relative strength signal is confirmed; if Brent breaks through $90 or the Strait of Hormuz officially closes, then the entire disinflation trade will face repricing. Key follow-up focus: UK CPI (July 23), European Central Bank interest rate decision (July 24), US tech giant earnings AI capex guidance, and the July 28-29 FOMC meeting.
