Bitget UEX Daily | Broadcom and Apple Renew Chip Partnership Until 2031; US Tech Stocks Rebound, Dow Jones Breaks Record; Strategy Sold 3,588 BTC Last Week to Raise Funds for Dividends
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Bitget UEX Daily | Broadcom and Apple Renew Chip Partnership Until 2031; US Tech Stocks Rebound, Dow Jones Breaks Record; Strategy Sold 3,588 BTC Last Week to Raise Funds for Dividends
Overall, the pattern of risk asset rebounds coexisting with a strong US dollar may persist in the short term; it is recommended to monitor this week's trade data and Fed minutes for revisions to interest rate expectations.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights
I. Hot News
Federal Reserve Updates
Fed Governor Waller: Forward Guidance Remains a Valuable Tool, Needs Flexible Application
Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated at the Rome conference that if used properly, forward guidance can still effectively accelerate monetary policy transmission, being "more art than science." He admitted that past usage was sometimes too rigid, but emphasized that its value should not be completely denied. Previously, new Chairman Kevin Warsh had promised to reduce reliance on forward guidance, shifting towards more data-driven policy adjustments.
Key Points: 1. Forward guidance during the pandemic helped tighten financial conditions early; 2. Rigid usage previously limited policy space; 3. Currently still viewed as a useful tool. Market Impact: The market interprets this as divergence within the Fed on communication strategies, but it will not change the "data-dependent" policy path in the short term; volatility in the US dollar and interest rate-sensitive assets is expected to be limited.
International Commodities
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve Drops to Lowest Level Since 1983
US Department of Energy data shows that for the week ending July 3, Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) crude oil inventories decreased by 6.2 million barrels to 319.5 million barrels, a new low since April 1983. Release agreements since relevant conflicts have led to continuous inventory declines, and total US petroleum inventories have also fallen to the lowest level since 1984.
Market Impact: Low inventories provide some support for oil prices, but global supply-demand dynamics and expectations of geopolitical easing still dominate short-term trends; oil prices may remain range-bound.
Macro Events
Trump Promotes "Trump Account" Plan, Optimistic About Market Prospects
Trump stated at the newborn investment account launch ceremony that the account will provide significant financial advantages when children turn 18, and said "the market will skyrocket," while criticizing short-selling behavior. CFTC data shows that as of June 30, net long positions in the US dollar rose to nearly $40 billion, the highest level since 2015.
Market Impact: Political narrative boosts risk appetite in the short term, but actual policy implementation remains to be observed; high US dollar long positions reflect interest rate expectations and economic resilience support, but weakening employment data may limit further upside space.
II. Market Review
Commodities & Forex Performance
- Spot Gold: $4,148/oz, 24h down approx 0.56%
- Spot Silver: $61.45/oz, 24h down approx 1.0%
- WTI Crude Oil: $68.88/barrel, 24h slightly up 0.48%
- Brent Crude Oil: Around $72.3/barrel, 24h slightly up 0.44%
- US Dollar Index (DXY): 100.879 points, 24h up approx 0.02%
Driver Analysis: The slight decline in gold was mainly affected by the steady US dollar and rebound in risk assets, while the larger decline in silver reflects its high elasticity characteristics. Oil prices balanced between low SPR levels and expectations of geopolitical easing, with short-term supply-demand game intensifying. US dollar long positions are at high levels, but recent weakening employment data may limit further upward momentum. Inter-asset linkage shows that warming risk appetite puts pressure on precious metals; gold may oscillate in the $4,100-$4,200 range, while oil prices need to focus on inventory data and geopolitical developments.
Cryptocurrency Performance
- BTC: Approx $63,900, +0.03%
- ETH: Approx $1,790, -0.34%
- Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approx $2.28 trillion, +1.3%
- Market Liquidations: 24h total liquidations approx $500 million, short liquidations approx $300 million
- Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current BTC price is approx $63,919, recent major short liquidations are concentrated in the $64,800–$65,500 region. If the price continues to attack upwards and breaks through this range, it may trigger short stop-losses, pushing the market further up. Below, near $62,500–$63,500, there is a concentration of long liquidations. If the price falls below the current support range, it may trigger a cascade of long liquidations, and short-term downward pressure will increase significantly.
- Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: As of the daily report release, BTC Spot ETF 24h net inflow approx $56 million
Driver Analysis: MicroStrategy sold a large amount of Bitcoin but the price remained stable, showing strong market absorption capacity. Divergence in Fed internal communication and rebound in US tech stocks benefit risk assets; leverage liquidations being mainly shorts indicate that short-term short squeeze 行情 (situations) are continuing. BTC and ETH trends are relatively consistent, no obvious divergence, overall following warming risk sentiment. Institutional consensus believes that although ETF fund flows fluctuate, on-chain and derivatives market resilience supports prices; technically, BTC needs to stand above $65,000 to confirm rebound continuation, otherwise it is prone to oscillate within the range.
US Stock Index Performance
- Dow Jones: 53,055.91 points (+0.29%), new highs for multiple consecutive days, first break above 53,000 points
- S&P 500: 7,537.43 points (+0.72%), key feature is tech and cyclical sectors driving together
- Nasdaq: 26,121.16 points (+1.12%), sector driver is rebound in AI-related stocks
Tech Giants Updates
- NVDA: $195.55 (+0.37%)
- AAPL: $312.80 (+1.35%)
- MSFT: $386.74 (-0.96%)
- GOOGL: $366.46 (+1.82%)
- AMZN: $244.16 (+0.61%)
- META: $600.29 (+2.98%)
- TSLA: $419.77 (+6.69%)
Performance Summary and Driver Analysis: The tech sector overall shows a divergent rebound pattern, AI narrative warming drives risk appetite repair, but individual stock drivers differ significantly. TSLA, META, GOOGL lead gains, mainly benefiting from company-specific catalysts (Robotaxi pilot progress, AI ad efficiency improvement) and sector rotation; NVDA remains stable, market confidence recovered after roadmap clarification; MSFT slight pullback may be affected by short-term profit-taking. Overall, the AI CAPEX main line remains unchanged, but different segments (GPU, memory, network, application layer) have different sensitivities to macro liquidity and policy expectations. Trump's market optimistic narrative further amplifies growth stock sentiment, while Fed policy flexibility discussion limits single-directional bets.
Sector Movement Observation
Cryptocurrency Concept Stocks Up Over 8-13%
- Representative Stocks: IREN (+13%), CIFR (+8%)
- Drivers: Bitcoin price stabilization and leverage liquidations drive related mining and concept stocks rebound.
Storage Concept Stocks Up Over 6-7%
- Representative Stocks: Western Digital (+7%), Seagate Technology (+6%)
- Drivers: Semiconductor industry chain demand expectations improve and AI server-related storage demand support.
Automobile Manufacturing Stocks Up Over 5-9%
- Representative Stocks: LCID (+9%), RIVN (+8%), TSLA (+7%)
- Drivers: Tesla and other electric vehicle stocks rebound drives sector sentiment warming.
III. In-depth Analysis of US Stocks
1. NVIDIA - Denies Rumors of Next-Gen AI Architecture Delay
Event Overview: Markets previously circulated rumors that Nvidia's next-gen AI computing architecture Kyber might be delayed to 2028 due to R&D setbacks. A Nvidia spokesperson clearly responded that "Our road map is intact," denying core progress hurdles. This architecture was originally planned for Rubin Ultra GPU, adopting a new vertical rack design, aiming to significantly increase compute density and reduce network latency, while expected to drive data center co-packaged optics (CPO) industry chain demand. Nvidia is currently in the mass shipment phase of the Blackwell platform, Rubin subsequent iterations and Kyber as the next-gen architecture positioning are crucial. Such rumors repeatedly appear in the AI supply chain; this quick company clarification helps stabilize market confidence in long-term technical paths.
Market Interpretation: Mizuho Securities and other analysts point out that similar "delay" rumors have been amplified by the market multiple times, more like eye-catching noise; Nvidia's absolute dominant position in AI GPU is hard to shake in the short term. Institutions generally believe that although competitors are accelerating catch-up, Nvidia's moat in CUDA ecosystem, software stack, and supply chain integration remains deep. Combined with Fed Governor Waller's statement on policy flexibility, market expectations for long-term certainty of AI CAPEX have not changed; Nvidia as a core beneficiary of AI infrastructure, its stable performance reflects institutional consensus on continued high-intensity investment in data centers.
Investment Implications: Short-term stock price easily disturbed by supply chain rumors, suggest focusing on Blackwell shipment pace and Rubin/Kyber actual progress; long-term still depends on global AI CAPEX landing speed and competition pattern evolution, currently still a core configuration variety.
2. Tesla - Stock Price Rebounds Significantly Over 6%
Event Overview: Tesla stock price surged nearly 7% in a single day on July 6, significantly outperforming the market and driving automobile and robot concept sectors stronger. Market focus lies on its Robotaxi (autonomous taxi) long-term narrative progress, including potential progress of Miami and other cities joining Robotaxi pilot plans, and Cybercab and other next-gen product timelines. Tesla also benefits from overall tech sector risk appetite warming and AI-related concept linkage. Although Q1 delivery data and profitability still face pressure, market expectations for FSD (Full Self-Driving) regulatory breakthroughs and robot Optimus commercialization paths have warmed recently.
Market Interpretation: Institutional views believe this rebound is more driven by short-term technical repair and sector rotation, rather than single fundamental catalyst. Tesla valuation remains in a high range, need to continuously track quarterly delivery data, Robotaxi commercialization timeline, and regulatory policy landing 情况 (situations). Some analysts point out that in an environment where Fed policy path still has uncertainty, Tesla as a high Beta growth stock, its stock price has high sensitivity to liquidity expectations and risk appetite, short-term prone to violent fluctuations.
Investment Implications: High volatility attributes suitable for short-term trading investors; long-term holding needs close attention to company execution (especially Robotaxi and Optimus landing pace) and macro liquidity environment changes.
3. Meta Platforms - Stock Price Up Nearly 3%
Event Overview: Meta stock price followed tech sector rebound up nearly 3%, AI-related CAPEX and advertising business resilience remain market core focus points. Company continues to increase Llama open-source model investment, and improves efficiency through AI-driven ad recommendation systems, while maintaining high-intensity investment in data centers and AI infrastructure construction. Meta's AI strategy emphasizes "efficiency first," i.e., improving model performance and monetization ability while controlling total expenditure scale, which differs from aggressive investment of some peers.
Market Interpretation: Institutions generally optimistic about Meta's strategic determination in AI infrastructure and metaverse long-term layout, believe its ad business recovery plus AI efficiency improvement will support medium-to-long term earnings growth. But short-term stock price more driven by market sentiment and sector rotation, rather than company-specific event catalysts. Analysts point out that Meta's AI CAPEX is large, but return cycle relatively controllable, and open-source strategy helps ecosystem expansion, making it relatively more defensive in current interest rate environment.
Investment Implications: As a high Beta tech stock, suitable for configuration during risk appetite warming phases; need to guard against AI spending returns missing expectations or macro liquidity tightening bringing valuation correction risks.
4. Broadcom - AI Networking and Custom Chips Continue to Benefit
Event Overview: Broadcom performed steadily in July 6 semiconductor sector rebound, as AI networking and custom ASIC core supplier, its penetration rate in hyperscaler (ultra-large-scale data center) AI training and inference clusters continues to increase. Company recently extended custom chip cooperation agreement with Apple to 2031, while maintaining deep binding with Google (TPU), Meta, etc. Even though previous Q3 AI chip sales guidance slightly below some expectations triggered short-term volatility, AI semiconductor revenue YoY still recorded 143% high growth, showing demand foundation solid.
Market Interpretation: Institutions believe Broadcom's dual-wheel drive in AI networking chips (Tomahawk/Jericho series) and custom ASIC fields makes it one of the most direct AI CAPEX beneficiaries besides Nvidia. Mizuho and other brokerages point out that although single quarter guidance volatility may trigger stock price oscillations, long term, Broadcom's binding relationships with multiple tech giants and layout in frontier fields like CPO (co-packaged optics) provide strong visibility. Combined with current Fed policy flexibility discussion, market certainty expectations for AI infrastructure medium-to-long term investment remain strong; Broadcom as an important player in the "selling shovels" segment, fundamental resilience stands out.
Investment Implications: Broadcom is a core target in the AI industry chain networking and customization segments, suitable as a diversified configuration choice besides Nvidia; short-term focus on hyperscaler CAPEX pace, medium-to-long term optimistic about its market share increase in AI ecosystem.
5. Dell Technologies - Strong AI Server Demand, Trump Market Optimistic Narrative Provides Sentiment Support
Event Overview: Dell as an important AI server supplier, performed actively against the background of recent semiconductor and storage concept stocks collective strengthening. Previously (end of May) company announced earnings showing AI optimized server revenue YoY surged 757% to $16.1 billion, AI related orders reached $24.4 billion, and significantly raised full-year AI server sales guidance to approx $60 billion, driving stock price to appear historic single-day surge. Entering July, AI server backlog orders and storage matching demand continue to release, becoming main engine driving its performance growth. Additionally, Trump while promoting newborn "Trump Account" investment plan stated "the market will skyrocket," and encouraged families long-term investment rather than cashing out; this political narrative short-term boosted market risk appetite and growth stock sentiment, providing extra catalyst for AI infrastructure related US stocks.
Market Interpretation: Institutional views believe Dell has successfully transformed from traditional PC/server manufacturer to important AI infrastructure participant, its close cooperation with Nvidia and other GPU manufacturers and layout in liquid cooling, high-density server fields, makes it occupy favorable position in AI CAPEX wave. Analysts point out that although server gross margin relatively lower than GPU, scale effect and storage, networking and other high gross margin attachments binding ability is improving profit quality. Trump's optimistic market narrative although belongs to political level, short-term enhanced risk assets overall sentiment, especially beneficial to US domestic AI and tech growth stocks, together with Fed Governor Waller emphasizing policy flexibility statement constitutes macro background supporting risk appetite. Dell as a representative of the "selling servers" segment, order visibility high, fundamentals and sentiment form resonance.
Investment Implications: Dell is a direct beneficiary in AI server industry chain with relatively reasonable valuation, suitable for medium-to-long term configuration; suggest continuously tracking its quarterly AI server shipments and gross margin improvement 情况 (situations), while paying attention to Trump related policy narrative short-term disturbance to market risk appetite.
IV. Cryptocurrency Project Updates
1. Trump stated that thanks to the Trump Account, newborns today can gain huge financial advantages by age 18. While promoting today's account launch ceremony, he heavily promoted early investment as a path to creating long-term wealth, and pointed out that Dow Jones Index, Nasdaq Index and S&P 500 Index have all risen recently. "I think the market will skyrocket," he said, and encouraged families to continue investing, rather than cashing out and leaving.
2. When asked "Will the Trump Account potentially include Bitcoin in the future?" Trump responded: "It could happen."
3. Riot Platforms transferred 500 Bitcoin to NYDIG regulatory account, possibly preparing for subsequent selling.
4. BonkDAO disclosed on X platform that it encountered a malicious governance proposal attack, value approx $20 million BONK tokens stolen from BonkDAO treasury.
5. Nasdaq listed company Empery Digital increased holdings by another 200 Bitcoin. Past 6 days, company cumulatively increased holdings by 1,200 BTC.
6. Microsoft plans to lay off approx 3,200 people in Xbox department, and divest five game studios under it, as part of business restructuring.
7. Broadcom and Apple have extended custom chip supply and development cooperation to 2031. Both sides will continue long-term R&D and supply around dedicated chips for iPhone and other products on the basis of original RF and wireless connection chip cooperation. Products covered by the agreement will be mainly designed and produced in the US, involving billions of dollars long-term procurement commitment.
8. MicroStrategy sold 3,588 BTC last week to fund dividends, Bitcoin holdings dropped to 843,775.
V. Today's Market Calendar
Data Release Schedule
Important Event Preview
July 7 (Tuesday)
- SpaceX will be included in Nasdaq 100 before market open on July 7, expected to trigger approx $4.3 billion passive fund inflow ★★★★
- US ADP Employment Change for week ending June 20 released 20:15, US May Trade Balance released 20:30.
July 8 (Wednesday)
- US May Wholesale Sales MoM 22:00 released, US EIA Crude Oil Inventories for week ending July 3 22:30 released.
July 9 (Thursday)
- Fed June Meeting Minutes released 02:00 early morning, discuss interest rate path and inflation response; ★★★★★
- New York Fed President Williams speaks 21:00;
- US Initial Jobless Claims for week ending July 4 released 20:30.
July 10 (Friday)
- Dallas Fed President Logan speaks 01:30;
- SK Hynix ADR tentative listing on Nasdaq July 10 ★★★★
*Core themes for US stocks this week revolve around Fed June Meeting Minutes, Fed officials' speeches, SpaceX inclusion in Nasdaq 100, market volatility expected to intensify.
Institutional Views
Wall Street analysts generally believe that Fed Governor Waller's statement shows mild divergence internally on communication strategies, but "data-dependent" remains the core framework, will not change rate cut path expectations due to single comment. High US dollar long positions reflect US economic resilience and interest rate advantage, but recent employment data weakening may limit further upside; gold pullback seen as healthy consolidation rather than trend reversal. Cryptocurrency market shows resilience amidst ETF fund volatility and leverage liquidations, short-term short squeeze provides support, but medium-to-long term still needs fundamentals and macro liquidity cooperation. Overall, risk asset rebound and US dollar strength coexisting pattern may continue in short term, suggest watching this week's trade data and Fed Minutes for interest rate expectation correction.
Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, manual verification only for publication, does not constitute any investment advice. Data in the text inevitably contains deviations, please refer to real-time market data.
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