Bitget UEX Daily Report | Oil Prices Retreat Amid Trump-Iran Dialogue; Tesla’s Terafab Launches; NVIDIA GTC Conference Approaches
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Bitget UEX Daily Report | Oil Prices Retreat Amid Trump-Iran Dialogue; Tesla’s Terafab Launches; NVIDIA GTC Conference Approaches
In the cryptocurrency space, Bank of America believes Bitcoin’s price dynamics are tied to gold. If precious metals weaken, Bitcoin could test $60,000; otherwise, it may rebound to previous highs. Overall improvement in risk sentiment is boosting ETF inflows.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Bitget
I. Top News
Federal Reserve Updates
Chair Powell Issues Strong Response to Trump Administration Investigation; Will Remain Fed Governor Through 2028
- Powell, via his legal counsel, sent a strong signal to the Trump administration: if the criminal investigation into excessive spending continues, he will remain on the Federal Reserve Board as a governor through 2028—beyond the end of his term as Chair.
- The court has already quashed the subpoena and criticized the government for harassment; however, the Department of Justice insists on appealing—a standoff that blocks Senate confirmation of successor Philip Warsh, creating an unprecedented situation.
- This confrontation intensifies the debate over the Fed’s independence and could erode market confidence in monetary policy stability, amplifying macroeconomic uncertainty.
Global Commodities
Trump Signals Dialogue with Iran; International Oil Prices Rally Then Retreat
- Trump stated he is engaging in talks with Iranian representatives and coordinating with the G7 on matters concerning the Strait of Hormuz—but noted Iran is not yet ready, and its willingness to reach an agreement remains uncertain.
- Tensions in the Middle East persist: the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran’s oil export hub, Kharg Island; Iran claims retaliatory strikes against U.S. and Israeli targets; Iran’s foreign minister said ending the war requires guarantees against recurrence and compensation. Oil prices surged over 3% before retreating.
- Talks may ease supply concerns, but continued hostilities could sustain high volatility; restoring stability in global energy markets hinges on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
- U.S. officials indicated the Trump administration plans to announce as early as this week that multiple countries have agreed to form a coalition to escort vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. However, participants are still debating whether such operations should commence before or after hostile actions by Iran cease.
II. Market Recap
Commodities & FX Performance
- Spot Gold: $5,024.79/oz, up 0.05%; short-term stabilization supported by Middle East geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand.
- Spot Silver: $81.19/oz, up 0.81%; notable for accelerating rebound amid elevated silver price volatility and improving industrial outlook.
- WTI Crude: $97.94/bbl, down 0.79%; driven by signals of strategic reserve releases alleviating supply disruption concerns.
- Brent Crude: $103.09/bbl, down 0.05%; sustained geopolitical risk offsets upward pressure, while expectations of coalition-led escort operations cap gains.
- U.S. Dollar Index: 100.19, down 0.17%; falling oil prices weakened safe-haven buying, though Fed policy expectations continue to provide support.
Cryptocurrency Performance
- BTC: +2.14% over 24 hours, extending consecutive gains and breaking above $72,400—driven by sustained inflows into spot ETFs and rising global risk appetite.
- ETH: +4.17% over 24 hours, trading at $2,172; notable for strong rebound fueled by broad market momentum and institutional capital inflows.
- Total Crypto Market Cap: +1.9% over 24 hours, reaching $2.55 trillion—supported by broad-based gains across major tokens and heightened geopolitical uncertainty boosting safe-haven demand.
- Liquidations: $191 million liquidated in 24 hours—$47 million long positions, $144 million short positions.
- Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price ~$72,400. A dense cluster of long-position liquidations lies between $70,500–$72,000; a drop into this zone could trigger concentrated long liquidations and exacerbate downside volatility. A dense concentration of short-position liquidations sits near $73,000–$74,500; a breakout above this range could spark a short squeeze and drive further upside.
- Spot ETF Net Flows: On Friday, BTC spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $180 million; ETH spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $27 million.
- BTC Spot Net Flows: $1.543 billion inflow vs. $1.516 billion outflow yesterday—net inflow of $26 million.
U.S. Equity Index Performance
As of Friday’s close:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: 46,558.47, down 0.26%—continuing a downward trend amid geopolitical risks and oil price volatility.
- S&P 500: 6,632.19, down 0.61%—notable for widening volatility, weighed down by tech and energy sectors.
- Nasdaq Composite: 22,105.36, down 0.93%—dragged lower by broad-based tech stock declines and amplified pressure from shifting rate expectations.
Tech Giants Update
- Apple (AAPL): Down 1.45%, closing at $248.50—impacted by concerns over global supply chain disruptions and potential dampening of consumer electronics demand due to rising oil prices.
- Microsoft (MSFT): Down 1.58%, closing at $395.54—valuation adjustment triggered by investor questions around AI investment expenditures amid escalating market risk.
- NVIDIA (NVDA): Down 1.59%, closing at $180.28—rising uncertainty over AI chip demand, compounded by higher supply chain costs amid geopolitical tensions.
- Amazon (AMZN): Down 0.89%, closing at $207.67—slowing growth in e-commerce and cloud businesses amid high inflation expectations and intensifying competition.
- Alphabet (GOOGL): Down 0.58%, closing at $301.46—regulatory concerns eased but AI progress slowing, with overall market rotation exerting downward pressure.
- Meta (META): Down 3.83%, closing at $614.10—investor concerns sparked by high capital expenditures and questions about AI model efficiency.
- Tesla (TSLA): Down 0.88%, closing at $391.54—intensifying EV competition and oil price volatility suppressing pace of demand transition. Overall sector moves reflect early-2026 market rotation away from high-valuation tech stocks, with geopolitical risks (e.g., Iran conflict) amplifying oil volatility and AI expenditure concerns—though select AI leaders retain support.
Sector Movement Observations
Energy Sector: +0.41%
- Key Stocks: Exxon Mobil +1.69%, Chevron +0.8%.
- Catalysts: Middle East conflict pushes up oil prices; energy security theme rises in prominence; institutions favor strategic positioning.
Basic Materials Sector: −2.96%
- Key Stocks: Freeport-McMoRan −3.5%, Alcoa −3.35%.
- Catalysts: Deepening concerns over global supply chain disruptions; rising demand uncertainty.
Tech Sector: −1.18%
- Key Stocks: NVIDIA −1.59%, AMD −2.2%.
- Catalysts: Uncertainty around semiconductor export controls; rate expectation shifts pressuring valuations.
III. In-Depth Stock Analysis
1. Tesla – Terafab Initiative Launch
Event Summary: Tesla plans to “manufacture chips.” Elon Musk formally announced the Terafab initiative, set to launch within months, aiming to produce its own AI chips and reduce reliance on external suppliers—addressing prior production delays caused by chip shortages. The project integrates the supply chain and strengthens competitiveness in EVs and autonomous driving. Market Interpretation: Analysts view this as reinforcing Tesla’s vertical integration advantage; Goldman Sachs estimates cost reductions of ~20%, though initial investment pressures warrant caution; Morgan Stanley sees strong long-term growth potential and raised its price target to $450. Investment Implications: Tech stocks may benefit short-term from supply chain optimization—monitor project progress closely; long-term outlook remains positive for EV market share expansion.
2. Trump – Dialogue with Iran
Event Summary: Trump confirmed ongoing talks with Iranian representatives and coordination with the G7 on Strait of Hormuz matters—but stressed Iran is not yet prepared, and its commitment to agreement remains unclear. Context includes heightened Middle East tensions: U.S./Israeli bombing of Iran’s oil infrastructure, and Iran’s conditions for ending hostilities—including non-recurrence guarantees and reparations. These talks aim to de-escalate conflict. Market Interpretation: Analysts see this as a diplomatic de-escalation signal; Bank of America estimates it could push oil prices down 3–5%, pending tangible progress; Goldman Sachs warns failure could send oil prices above the 2008 peak. Investment Implications: Energy stocks gain short-term stability expectations—monitor Strait transit developments to adjust positions accordingly.
3. Powell – Confrontation with Trump Administration
Event Summary: Powell, via legal counsel, issued a firm stance to the Trump administration: if the excessive spending probe persists, he will remain on the Fed Board through 2028. Though the court quashed the subpoena and rebuked government harassment, the DOJ is appealing—creating a stalemate blocking Warsh’s Senate nomination and highlighting deepening Fed independence tensions. Market Interpretation: Institutions view this as defending central bank autonomy; JPMorgan says it may delay policy adjustments and amplify market volatility; Citi expresses concern over impact on easing path. Investment Implications: Bond market volatility increases—watch for Fed meeting signals closely.
4. U.S. – Formation of Hormuz Escort Coalition
Event Summary: According to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. officials say the Trump administration could announce as early as this week that multiple nations have agreed to form a Strait of Hormuz escort coalition—though timing of operational launch remains undecided, pending cessation of hostile acts. The White House declined comment; many countries remain hesitant due to perceived risk exposure. Market Interpretation: Analysts believe such a coalition would secure energy supplies; BofA estimates successful deployment could lower oil prices by 10%; delays, however, could heighten near-term volatility. Investment Implications: Commodity markets face elevated uncertainty—consider diversifying into safe-haven assets.
5. IEA – Strategic Oil Reserve Release
Event Summary: The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced record oil reserves will be released immediately into Asian markets to offset supply gaps from Middle East conflict; European and American releases will follow by end-March. IEA head emphasized that stable supply depends on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Market Interpretation: Institutions view this as short-term support for Asian demand; Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to stay elevated, though release volumes of 300–400 million barrels could ease disruption pressure. Investment Implications: Energy stocks benefit from supply buffer—track release timelines closely.
IV. Cryptocurrency Project Updates
1. The Financial Times reported this week as a “Super Central Bank Week.” While no major surprises are expected from these central banks’ interest rate decisions, policy guidance accompanying announcements will draw intense scrutiny—especially given unfolding Middle East tensions. Decisions from the four major central banks—the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ—will be released sequentially starting Thursday Beijing time.
2. Strategy currently holds 738,731 BTC. To reach 1 million BTC by end-2026, it must acquire another 261,269 BTC. With ~42 weeks remaining, that averages ~6,158 BTC per week. At an estimated average price of $85,000, total required investment is ~$22.2 billion.
3. Over the past 24 hours, ShapeShift founder Erik Voorhees purchased 13,986 ETH for $29.44 million USDT. Over the past six days, he has accumulated 21,293 ETH at an average price of $2,091, totaling $44.52 million USDT.
4. Argentine media outlet El Destape reported that an unpublished document recovered from intermediary Mauricio Novelli’s phone revealed a proposed $5 million payment agreement tied to the LIBRA token project—much of which reportedly linked to support for Argentine President Javier Milei.
5. On-chain data suggests Venus Protocol suffered a flash loan attack. Attacker address (0x1a35...6231) acquired 20 BTC, 1.5 million CAKE, and 200 BNB—valued at over $3.7 million. The attacker used large amounts of THE as collateral on Venus to borrow CAKE, BTCB, and BNB; tens of millions of THE tokens pledged as collateral are now undergoing liquidation.
6. Wintermute founder: “Targets matter more than price”—reaffirming long-term ETH holding. “I firmly believe someone should attempt to achieve this goal at the macro level—not just pursue financial applications.”
7. DeFi researcher Ingas posted on X that BlackRock launched a staking-enabled Ethereum ETF separately rather than adding staking functionality to its existing ETHA ETF because staking introduces punitive impairment risk—something certain investors wish to avoid.
8. Data: Tokens including ZRO, BARD, and RIVER face large unlocks this week—ZRO unlock value is ~$51.8 million.
V. Today’s Market Calendar
Data Release Schedule
| 08:30 | U.S. | Retail Sales (M-o-M), Jan | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| 08:30 | U.S. | Empire State Manufacturing Index, Mar | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| 09:15 | U.S. | Industrial Production (M-o-M), Feb | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| 10:00 | U.S. | NAHB Housing Market Index, Mar | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| 07:30 | Canada | Inflation Rate, Feb | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Key Event Preview
Mar 18, 22:30 (UTC+8): U.S. Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories; Weekly EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserves;
Mar 19, 02:00 (UTC+8): U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision (Upper Bound), Mar 18;
Mar 19, 20:30 (UTC+8): U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending Mar 4).
Institutional Views:
Top-tier investment bank analysts adopted a cautious stance toward yesterday’s market performance. Goldman Sachs noted institutional equity selling reached historic levels, placing markets at a tipping point—where unresolved geopolitical tension could trigger a collapse-like selloff, while aggressive short-covering could instead fuel a 2–3% rebound. Morgan Stanley underscored energy security as the top investment theme, recommending exposure to beneficiaries. For precious metals, Citi expects gold to hold steady near $5,000, supported by central bank purchases and safe-haven demand; silver may rise to $58. Oil outlooks diverge: Goldman Sachs warns prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption could push Brent above its 2008 peak, though it forecasts a Q4 decline to $71. In FX, the dollar remains strong short-term but faces broader bearish sentiment. In crypto, BofA sees Bitcoin closely tied to gold dynamics—if precious metals weaken, BTC may test $60,000; otherwise, it could retest highs. Improving risk sentiment broadly supports ETF inflows.
Disclaimer: The above content was compiled via AI search and verified manually prior to publication. It does not constitute any investment advice.
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