Bitget UEX Daily Report | Escalating U.S.-Iran Conflict Sends Oil Prices Soaring; Private Credit Redemption Pressure Intensifies; Tesla Approved for Indirect Stake in SpaceX
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Bitget UEX Daily Report | Escalating U.S.-Iran Conflict Sends Oil Prices Soaring; Private Credit Redemption Pressure Intensifies; Tesla Approved for Indirect Stake in SpaceX
Goldman Sachs noted that the three major U.S. stock indices fell more than 1.5%, dragged down by surging oil prices amid the U.S.-Iran conflict, and recommended increasing exposure to energy and agricultural stocks as a hedge.
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I. Key News Highlights
Federal Reserve Updates
Fed Officials Expect Rates to Remain Unchanged for an Extended Period
Beth Hammack, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated that with inflation still elevated and labor market conditions softening, current monetary policy is neutral and does not require immediate adjustment.
- Persistent inflationary pressures and slowing employment indicators.
- Policy has been balanced following last year’s rate cuts; under the base-case scenario, it will remain unchanged for an extended period.
- Two-way risks exist, requiring close monitoring of incoming data. Her remarks reinforce market consensus that the Fed will hold rates steady at its March meeting, potentially dampening bond yield volatility, supporting the U.S. dollar, and constraining equity risk appetite.
Global Commodities
U.S.-Israel Conflict Disrupts Global Supply Chains
U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran have raised energy and fertilizer transportation costs through the Strait of Hormuz.
- UN reports indicate rising shipping costs and disruptions across the fertilizer supply chain.
- U.S. farmers may need to adjust planting strategies in response to supply interruptions. This event amplifies inflation concerns and boosts energy and agricultural input stocks.
Iran Allows Limited Vessel Transit Through the Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister stated that vessels from non-aggressive countries may pass through the Strait, while those from aggressive nations enjoy no safety guarantees.
- No mine-laying reported in the Strait, easing some market tensions.
- Brent crude remains above $100 per barrel—its highest level since August 2022. This helps stabilize shipping activity in the short term, but high geopolitical risk continues to pressure oil prices.
Macroeconomic Policy
U.S. Considers Temporary Waiver of the Jones Act Amid Rising Fuel Prices
The Trump administration is considering a 30-day waiver to ensure continued energy and agricultural commodity transport.
- Response to supply disruptions and price surges triggered by the Iran situation.
- Announcement expected on March 13. This measure aims to ease domestic energy pressures and may support related industry equities.
U.S. Permits Certain Russian Oil Sales
The Treasury Department issued licenses allowing sales of Russian oil already loaded onto tankers, valid until April 11.
- Licenses effective starting March 12.
- Context: global energy supply tightness. Helps alleviate oil price pressure, though impact limited by ongoing Iran-related developments.
II. Market Recap
Commodities & FX Performance
- Spot Gold: $5,108.39/oz, up 0.54%, marking two consecutive days of correction amid inflation concerns and a stronger U.S. dollar.
- Spot Silver: $84.96/oz, up 1.38%, tracking gold movements but weighed down by weak industrial demand.
- WTI Crude: $95.15/bbl, down 0.61%, pulling back slightly after earlier gains driven by geopolitical tensions.
- Brent Crude: $99.93/bbl, down 0.67%, retreating after breaching $100/bbl; supply disruption fears remain dominant.
- U.S. Dollar Index: 99.65, down 0.09%—still trending upward, supported by safe-haven flows and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions.
Analyst Dara Doyle noted that markets interpreted newly appointed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s remarks as notably hardline, showing little sign of Iranian willingness to compromise with the U.S. or Israel. In his first public statement after assuming office, he declared the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed and threatened to open new fronts in war—intensifying market fears over prolonged disruptions to this critical global oil chokepoint. U.S. Treasury yields and oil prices surged sharply, while equities declined and the dollar index hit a session high.
Cryptocurrency Performance
- BTC: $71,417.13, up 1.68% over 24 hours, extending its rebound, driven by ETF inflows and improved market sentiment.
- ETH: $2,122.23, up 3.42% over 24 hours, tracking BTC strength, supported by expectations of upcoming network upgrades.
- Total Crypto Market Cap: $2.52 trillion, up 2.2% over 24 hours—holding relatively stable amid volatility, as geopolitical risk and ETF inflows offset each other.
- Liquidations: $256 million total liquidated over 24 hours—$86 million longs, $170 million shorts.
- Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price $71,396. A large concentration of leveraged long positions exists between $68,500–$70,500; if BTC falls into this range, cascading long liquidations could intensify downward pressure. Short liquidations begin accumulating above ~$71,400 and become denser near $73,000—suggesting potential short squeezes if price continues rising.
- Spot ETF Flows: BTC spot ETFs recorded $7.7 million net inflow yesterday—the fourth consecutive day of inflows; ETH spot ETFs saw $53.7 million net inflow yesterday—the third straight day of inflows.
- BTC Spot Flows: $2.358 billion inflow and $2.438 billion outflow the previous day, resulting in a net inflow of $79.5 million.
U.S. Equity Index Performance
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: 46,677.85, down 1.56% (–739.42 points), falling for three consecutive sessions, dragged down by geopolitical risk and higher oil prices.
- S&P 500: 6,672.58, down 1.52% (–103.18 points), with broad tech weakness exacerbating the decline.
- Nasdaq Composite: 22,311.98, down 1.78% (–404.16 points), led by tech giants amid inflation worries and private credit redemption pressures.
Tech Giants Update
- NVIDIA: Down 1.55% to $183.14—strong AI demand overshadowed by broad market selloff.
- Amazon: Down 1.47% to $212.65—robust bond issuance countered by inflation risk headwinds.
- Tesla: Down 3.14% to $395.01—SpaceX equity conversion positive, but overall market drag prevailed.
- Meta: Down 2.55% to $638.18—data center expansion insufficient to offset risk-averse sentiment.
- Apple: Down 1.94% to $255.76—weak product cycle compounded by market volatility.
- Microsoft: Down 0.75% to $401.86—relatively resilient, though AI spending pressures are emerging.
- Google: Down 1.67% to $303.55—AI feature rollout progressing, but low sentiment dominates.
Core drivers of the broad decline: U.S.-Iran tensions pushed oil prices higher, amplifying inflation concerns and triggering a wave of private credit redemptions; risk aversion dominated the tech sector.
Sector Rotation Observations
Agricultural Inputs Sector Up 6.5%
- Key stocks: CF Industries Holdings (+13.21%), Origin Agritech (+12.5%).
- Catalysts: U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict disrupted global fertilizer supply chains; rising transport costs boosted demand; farmer planting adjustments create tailwinds for fertilizer and seed stocks.
III. Deep-Dive Stock Analysis
- Adobe – Q1 Earnings Beat Expectations, But Guidance Lacks Punch and CEO Steps Down
Event Summary: Adobe reported Q1 revenue of $640 million, up 12% YoY; adjusted EPS of $6.06, exceeding consensus of $5.86. Annualized recurring revenue from AI-first products doubled. The company has undergone two major transformations—transitioning from traditional software to cloud services and integrating AI. CEO Shantanu Narayen, who has led Adobe for 18 years, will step down once a successor is named. Q2 revenue guidance of $525–$530 million falls slightly below analyst expectations of $531 million. Against this backdrop, Adobe is actively exploring AI monetization pathways, but leadership transition raises concerns about strategic continuity. After-hours shares fell over 7%, reflecting investor caution regarding uncertainty during the transition. This event ties closely to accelerating AI adoption—but sustainability of growth remains questionable. Precursors include AI product rollouts in 2025; consequences may include slower near-term innovation momentum.
Market Interpretation: Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating, emphasizing strong AI transformation potential; Morgan Stanley lowered its price target citing CEO succession uncertainty as a near-term headwind; Wolfe Research cut its target to $440 but retains an Outperform rating, focusing on declining legacy business; UBS holds a Neutral stance, concerned that guidance signals slow AI monetization.
Investment Implications: AI-driven long-term growth is clear, but management transition risk warrants vigilance. Suitable for long-term investors seeking entry on pullbacks, with close monitoring of Q2 guidance execution.
- Tesla – FTC Approves Conversion of xAI Investment into SpaceX Equity
Event Summary: Tesla received FTC approval to convert approximately $2 billion in xAI investments into less than 1% equity in SpaceX. This move occurs amid SpaceX’s IPO preparations, reinforcing Elon Musk’s ecosystem synergy across EVs, AI, and space technology. Background includes the planned 2025 merger of xAI and SpaceX, valued at $125 billion. Although a prior shareholder proposal to invest in xAI was rejected, it has now been realized. Formalizing this financial linkage is timely, coinciding with anticipated SpaceX IPO valuations approaching $175 billion—a record. Shares fell 3.14%, pressured by broader market weakness but highlighting diversified positioning. Precursors involve Musk’s empire restructuring; consequences may enhance Tesla’s technological competitiveness, albeit at the cost of diluting focus on core automotive operations.
Market Interpretation: Barclays views this as strengthening space-tech integration potential, boosting Tesla’s narrative; UBS warns equity conversion may divert resources, creating short-term pressure; Wedbush sees bullish cross-company synergies and expects increased interaction among xAI, SpaceX, and Tesla; Seeking Alpha analysts weigh merger benefits versus challenges, concluding growth opportunities outweigh risks.
Investment Implications: Diversified positioning enhances long-term ecosystem value, but near-term performance remains subject to geopolitical risk. Investors should monitor SpaceX’s IPO progress and assess implications for Tesla’s auto business.
- Amazon – $54 Billion Bond Issuance Oversubscribed
Event Summary: Amazon issued $37 billion in U.S. Treasuries and €14.5 billion in Euro-denominated debt—the largest corporate eurobond offering on record—with orders totaling $126 billion. Widely viewed as a safe haven in turbulent markets, proceeds will fund AI data centers and infrastructure expansion. Background includes plans to invest $20 billion in chips and equipment by 2026—exceeding expectations and raising equity investor concerns about return timelines. The issuance closed amid heightened oil volatility due to U.S.-Iran tensions, underscoring Amazon’s robust credit profile. Shares fell 1.47%, yet the move highlights financial flexibility. Precursors include surging AI capex; consequences may increase debt burden but support long-term growth.
Market Interpretation: Citigroup praises Amazon’s financing capability, enabling AI expansion; Deutsche Bank notes scale may compress margins in a high-rate environment; Schroders emphasizes Amazon’s ample cash reserves but stresses insatiable AI demand; Bloomberg analysts call pricing “cheap” due to oversupply, questioning the necessity of such a massive issuance.
Investment Implications: Financial resilience makes Amazon suitable for defensive allocations, but investors must watch debt accumulation and interest-rate sensitivity—focus should be on ROI from AI investments.
- Microsoft & Meta – New $50 Billion Data Center Lease Commitments Each
Event Summary: Microsoft and Meta each announced ~$50 billion in new data center lease commitments, bringing their combined future obligations to over $70 billion. Microsoft holds $15.5 billion in forward commitments; Meta, $10.4 billion. Reflecting explosive AI compute demand, these moves follow server shortages in 2025 and accelerated capacity builds—Microsoft added 1 GW in Q4 alone. Leases span 15–19 years, many cancellable. Shares fell 0.75% (Microsoft) and 2.55% (Meta), pressured by broad tech selloff. Precursors include soaring AI model training needs; consequences include potential cash flow strain but ensure infrastructure leadership.
Market Interpretation: Goldman Sachs views infrastructure investment returns favorably, reinforcing AI leadership; JPMorgan warns excessive spending may squeeze near-term cash flow; Moody’s flags $66.2 billion in off-balance-sheet exposure, highlighting accounting complexities; Bloomberg analysis underscores AI bets scaling up, though supply bottlenecks may persist.
Investment Implications: Clear AI tailwinds support long-term growth, but investors should monitor spending efficiency and ROI—mid-to-long-term positioning recommended.
- Samsung & NVIDIA – Accelerate Next-Gen NAND Flash Development
Event Summary: Samsung and NVIDIA are jointly developing ferroelectric-based NAND flash memory using physics-informed neural operator models—analysis speeds are 10,000x faster than current methods. Results have been published; collaboration spans R&D to commercialization. Context: AI chip demand drives memory innovation—Samsung, NVIDIA’s largest memory customer, seeks ultra-low-power storage performance enhancements. Timing aligns with AI infrastructure expansion and may improve data center efficiency. Share reaction reflects NVIDIA’s broader decline. Precursors include HBM ramp-up in 2025; consequences may tighten conventional memory supply and push prices higher.
Market Interpretation: Seoul Economic Daily quotes industry officials stressing how this alliance accelerates AI memory architecture shifts; Morgan Stanley recommends buying Samsung on dips, viewing it as an opportunity amid growing complexity in the AI memory ecosystem; Seeking Alpha analysts highlight benefits for Samsung’s HBM positioning but note intense competition.
Investment Implications: Strengthens AI memory leadership—appeals to tech-focused investors—but production curtailments’ pricing impact requires assessment.
IV. Cryptocurrency Project Updates
1. Aptos (APT) unlocked 11.31 million tokens—approximately 0.69% of circulating supply—raising potential selling pressure concerns, though network activity remains stable. WhiteBIT (WBT) faces a large-scale token unlock on March 13 worth ~$4.18 billion, possibly affecting exchange liquidity and ecosystem dynamics.
2. BlackRock’s iShares Staked Ethereum Trust (ETHB) achieved $15.5 million in trading volume on its first day. Nasdaq data shows 592,804 shares traded, representing ~$15.5 million. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart offered a positive assessment: “That’s very, very solid for a first-day ETF listing.”
3. The SEC’s Investor Advisory Committee voted to recommend advancing regulatory frameworks for tokenized securities—allowing stock trading to bypass decades-old Wall Street intermediaries and settlement systems.
4. On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant notes Ethereum is facing an “adoption paradox”: network activity hits all-time highs while ETH price plunges sharply. CryptoQuant’s Head of Research warns ETH could fall further to ~$1,500 if the bear market persists—potentially occurring by end-Q3 or early-Q4.
5. JPMorgan analysts observed divergent ETF fund flows for Bitcoin and gold since the Iran conflict erupted on February 27: the largest gold ETF (GLD) saw ~2.7% outflows, while the largest spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) recorded ~1.5% inflows. Since October last year, especially among retail investors, there’s been a rotation from Bitcoin to gold—but IBIT’s cumulative inflows since 2024 remain roughly double GLD’s.
6. ARK Invest and Unchained jointly released the white paper “Bitcoin and Quantum Computing,” stating current quantum computing capabilities pose no threat to Bitcoin security. Quantum risk will emerge gradually via observable technical milestones—not a sudden “Q-Day” collapse. The report estimates ~65.4% of Bitcoin supply (~13 million BTC) resides in non-quantum-vulnerable addresses; ~8.6% (~1.7 million BTC) sits in early P2PK addresses considered lost and quantum-vulnerable; another ~5.2 million BTC resides in reusable or P2TR addresses capable of migration—totaling ~35% of supply exposed to potential quantum attack surfaces.
V. Today’s Market Calendar
Economic Data Release Schedule
| 08:30 | U.S. | GDP (Q-o-Q) Q4 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| 08:30 | U.S. | Core PCE Deflator (Y-o-Y) JAN | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| 08:30 | U.S. | Durable Goods Orders (M-o-M) JAN | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Key Event Preview
- Friday, March 13, 20:30 ET: U.S. January Core PCE Price Index YoY release—consensus: 3.1%; Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Kishida meets Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to discuss Middle East developments.
Institutional Views:
Goldman Sachs attributes the >1.5% decline across major U.S. indices to U.S.-Iran conflict-driven oil price spikes, recommending overweight positions in energy and agriculture stocks for hedging. JPMorgan highlights amplified liquidity risk from private credit redemptions—Nasdaq faces near-term pressure, though AI themes remain optimistic. On precious metals, UBS considers gold’s correction normal, held back by a strong dollar but supported by geopolitical tension for medium-term upside. For oil, Citigroup forecasts WTI oscillating near $95—Hormuz news eased panic, but Iranian statements add uncertainty. In FX, Barclays favors dollar stability above 99.7, with safe-haven flows dominating. In crypto, Morgan Stanley notes BTC’s break above $70,000 was fueled by $115 million in ETF inflows; ETH rebounded but total market cap dipped 0.22%, signaling caution—investors should prepare for volatility and liquidation risks; ZX Squared Capital warns of a deep BTC bear market, potentially dropping another 30%.
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