Before you jump on the bandwagon and participate in any ICO, please read this first

Authors: Ola & Xi;lixir

Translated by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

ICOs are the hottest topic on crypto Twitter right now—everyone is talking about them.

Everyone thinks they've found the next MegaETH or Plasma.

But most people overlook one key point:

Only a small number of these ICOs will actually make money. That's always been how the crypto market works.

One project creates a model and succeeds.

Then ten teams copy it, hoping for the same success—but such success is hard to replicate, and nine out of ten fail.

Now, every team wants to do an ICO just because MegaETH and Plasma took off.

They figure instead of giving you airdrops, they'll have you pay to "join in."

Yet those two projects succeeded because they were well-planned from the start.

Before investing in any ICO, consider the following points.

1. Product Comes First

Ignore flashy slides and hype posts from KOLs.

Ask one simple question:

Does this product actually solve a real problem today? Is there genuine innovation? Why do they need a token at all?

If the product only exists in a "future story," or requires many assumptions to work, that's dangerous.

A good ICO usually already has something real and working—not empty promises or testnet data.

If they can't clearly explain what their product does in one sentence, that's your first red flag.

2. Team Matters

The quality of a project depends heavily on the strength of its team.

Check the team's track record:

Have they built products before, inside or outside of crypto?

Prior experience is a plus—it means they've walked this path before.

An anonymous team isn't necessarily bad,

but they must deliver exceptional results to earn trust.

In changing markets, strong teams adapt;

weak teams vanish as soon as attention fades—this is an "attention economy."

3. Investors and Valuation

Who invested in this project? Top-tier VCs or second-rate funds?

How much did they raise? What's the valuation? This matters more than most realize.

If insiders and early investors got in at extremely low valuations, you're likely the one left holding the bag.

A good ICO has sound valuation logic even without hype;

a bad ICO relies solely on buzz and vanity metrics to justify its price.

4. Look at Real Data, Not Surface Numbers

Do they have real revenue? How many active users? What’s their total value locked (TVL)?

Most importantly, assess the quality of these numbers—any data can be faked.

Testnet data that's easy to inflate is meaningless.

A dashboard full of fake activity won't magically turn into real usage overnight—Monad is a clear example.

See whether user demand is organic and natural—do people use the product without incentives,

or only because of a potential future airdrop?

5. Marketing and Storytelling Ability

Marketing matters more than many think.

MegaETH executed marketing exceptionally well.

The team controlled everything and fully owned the narrative.

Everyone was actively discussing MegaETH.

In Web3, attention is everything.

If no one cares about an ICO before launch, don't expect miracles afterward—just look at Monad again.

Good projects know from day one how to clearly tell their story.

Weak projects hide behind buzzwords: "We're building the next ChatGPT + Nvidia + prediction market in Web3..." Yeah, great story.

6. Token Distribution Terms and Valuation

Read the terms carefully:

• Token unlock schedule

• Vesting timeline

• Circulating supply

• fully diluted valuation (FDV) at listing

Understanding the full tokenomics is crucial. If it's unclear, use AI tools to help analyze it.

If the ICO structure heavily favors insiders and shifts all risk to retail investors, walk away immediately.

Fair launch doesn't mean cheap—it means alignment between the project team and participants.

7. Market Conditions Are Critical

This is the most overlooked factor.

In a real bull market, even an average project can reach a $500M–$1B fully diluted valuation purely through narrative.

Right now, even the hottest projects often cap out at $100M–$300M valuations.

This directly affects your risk-reward assessment.

The same project can have wildly different outcomes in different market conditions.

Timing isn't everything, but it's never irrelevant.

Final Thoughts

ICOs aren't free money—and never have been.

This current wave will create some winners, but also leave behind many lessons.

Don't buy just because everyone else is, or because your favorite KOL is shilling it.

Don't assume every promoted project will become the next MegaETH.

The worst ones will simply exploit your FOMO and herd mentality, offering nothing of substance.