Trump's Truth Social enters prediction markets, competing directly with Polymarket

Text: Joel Khalili, Wired

Translation: Saoirse, Foresight News

Truth Social, a social media platform majority-owned by U.S. President Donald Trump and his family, is launching a cryptocurrency-based betting service that will directly compete with the popular Polymarket.

The new service, called "Truth Predict," will allow Truth Social users to place bets in cryptocurrency on the outcomes of specific events, including sports matches, political campaigns, and economic changes. Truth Social is operated by publicly traded Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG).

Typically, individual predictions will be presented as binary questions, such as: "Will Taylor Swift release a new original song before October 2?" or "Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?"

In the lead-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, prediction markets entered the mainstream. Supporters claim these markets are a superior alternative to traditional opinion polls—a more efficient "source of truth."

"With Truth Predict, we're democratizing information and empowering Americans to turn free speech into actionable foresight through the wisdom of the crowd," said Devin Nunes, CEO of Trump Media & Technology Group, in a statement.

Truth Predict is being launched in partnership with an affiliate of the cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com. The prediction market space is currently dominated by Polymarket and Kalshi, both of which have recently raised funds at valuations in the billions of dollars.

Truth Predict's launch comes as Polymarket plans to re-enter the U.S. market—having previously been forced out during Joe Biden's administration. In 2022, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) accused Polymarket of operating an unregistered derivatives trading platform. As part of a settlement, Polymarket exited the U.S. market.

In November 2024, the FBI raided the home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan. At the time, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) was investigating whether the platform violated the settlement agreement by continuing to accept bets from U.S. residents (Coplan was neither arrested nor charged).

That changed after Trump returned to the White House in January 2025. Under the Trump administration, regulators halted lawsuits against prominent cryptocurrency firms, and the DOJ instructed prosecutors to turn a blind eye to certain crypto-related offenses.

In July of that year, Bloomberg reported that the DOJ had closed its investigation into Polymarket without filing charges, clearing the way for the company’s return to the U.S. market.

"If there’s one reason why (crypto prediction markets) can come back to the U.S., it’s the Trump administration—plain and simple, Donald Trump himself," said Zach Hamilton, founder of cryptocurrency startup Sarcophagus, in an interview with Wired.

Prior to the launch of Truth Predict, the Trump family already held financial stakes in the development of U.S. prediction markets.

In January 2025, Donald Trump Jr. joined Kalshi as a strategic advisor. Then in August, Polymarket received investment from venture capital firm 1789 Capital, where Donald Trump Jr. is a partner. As part of the deal, he also joined Polymarket’s advisory board.

The Trump family’s ties to Polymarket emerged just as the platform sought to re-enter the U.S. market—drawing close scrutiny from critics who argue the investment creates a conflict of interest. Critics say the deal gives the Trump family an opportunity to profit from policy changes driven by the Trump administration.

"No one would say the president’s family can’t engage in normal capitalist activities in a capitalist country. But Polymarket sits at the center of intense political controversy, so this investment represents a significant—and avoidable—conflict of interest," said Jeff Hauser, executive director of the Revolving Door Project, an organization focused on monitoring elected officials.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt responded in a statement to Wired: "The president and his family have never had, and will never have, a conflict of interest."

As of now, Polymarket, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), and 1789 Capital have not responded to requests for comment.

The launch of Truth Predict could also place different branches of the Trump family’s business empire in direct competition.

"From a venture capital perspective, most of us avoid investing in competing projects—we try to identify the 'category winner,'" said Chris Perkins, managing partner at cryptocurrency venture firm CoinFund.

In fact, Trump-affiliated companies have already been operating competing Bitcoin treasury firms. In June 2025, a dispute arose over which company had the right to launch the "official" Trump-branded crypto wallet.