TechFlow News, April 28: Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, stated at the “Bitcoin 2026” conference that Bitcoin’s roughly 50% decline from its October 2023 high of $126,000 has diverged from the Nasdaq’s performance—a divergence rooted in an underappreciated credit crunch triggered by AI’s disruption of the SaaS industry. However, following the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict in late February, market narrative has shifted toward “wartime inflation,” and Bitcoin has begun outperforming the Nasdaq.
Arthur Hayes believes market concerns over incoming Federal Reserve Chair Warsh’s hawkish stance have been overinterpreted. Warsh’s balance sheet reduction path involves asset swaps, resulting in zero net impact on liquidity. Meanwhile, the new eSLR rule, effective April 1, will unlock approximately $1.3 trillion in lending capacity for banks—capacity that, combined with wartime credit demand, can offset the credit contraction caused by AI. He notes his liquidity indicator bottomed in November last year and remains firmly bullish on Bitcoin, with a target price of $125,000.
