Bitget UEX Daily | Tech Giants' Earnings Shine but Accelerated Cash Burn Sparks Market Divergence; US-Iran Harsh Rhetoric Boosts Oil Prices and Rate Hike Expectations; Gold and Silver Strengthen

I. Hot News

Fed Dynamics

US-Iran Tensions Push Oil Prices, September Rate Hike Probability Nears 80%

• US President Trump threatened that if Iran fires at ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the US will bomb and destroy Iranian bridges or power plants; the Iranian military responded that it will firmly exercise sovereignty and never allow the strait to become a tool of threat.
• International Crude Oil Futures settlement price closed significantly higher, touching a high of over one month; the CME "FedWatch" tool shows the probability of the Fed raising rates at least once before the September meeting is close to 80%.
• Market Impact: Rising oil prices exacerbate inflation concerns, reinforce hawkish expectations, suppress risk asset valuations in the short term, while supporting US dollar and gold safe-haven demand.

International Commodities

Oil Surges on Geopolitical Risks, Precious Metals Strengthen Simultaneously

• Stimulated by harsh words between US and Iran, WTI and Brent crude both closed significantly higher.
• Spot Gold and Silver benefited from safe-haven sentiment and a slight decline in the US dollar, both rising.
• Market Impact: Rising energy costs may transmit downstream, exacerbating uncertainty in the Fed's policy path; commodity market volatility may remain high.

Macroeconomic Policy

Trump Warns of Possible Government Shutdown in September; BOJ Open to Accelerating Rate Hikes

• Trump stated in a speech in Georgia that due to disagreements between the two parties on spending priorities, the federal government may shut down in September; the House of Representatives has passed a short-term funding bill until December 4, and the Senate is still negotiating.
• Insiders say the continued weakening of the yen increases inflation risks; BOJ officials are open to "raising rates faster than market consensus," but the July 31 meeting is likely to keep rates unchanged.
• Market Impact: US fiscal uncertainty and increased Japan policy flexibility may increase global capital flow volatility, benefiting the safe-haven attributes of US dollar assets in the short term.

II. Market Review

Commodities & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: 4130.99 USD/oz, -0.02%
• Spot Silver: 59.72 USD/oz, +0.08%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approx. 87.9 USD/barrel, +1.21%
• Brent Crude Oil: Approx. 95.55 USD/barrel, +1.57%
• US Dollar Index (DXY): 101.09, -0.03%

Driver Analysis: US-Iran tensions directly pushed up crude oil; traders worry rising energy prices will push up consumer goods inflation, thereby reinforcing Fed September rate hike expectations. Gold and silver simultaneously benefited from geopolitical safe-haven demand, coupled with a slight decline in the US dollar index, forming a linked rise. In the short term, if the Hormuz situation continues to ferment, oil prices are expected to remain high, further suppressing risk appetite; if tensions ease, commodity gains may be quickly given back. Institutions generally believe the current commodity market is highly sensitive to geopolitical premiums, and subsequent US-Iran statements need close monitoring.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approx. 66199 USD, -0.66%
• ETH: Approx. 1937 USD, -0.03%
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approx. 2.33 Trillion USD, -0.5%
• Market Liquidation Situation: 24h total liquidation approx. 183 million USD, long liquidation 106 million USD
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price approx. 66,153 USD, a large number of short liquidation orders are clustered in the 66,700–67,500 USD range above; if 66,500 USD is broken, it is easy to trigger consecutive short covering, forming a short-term accelerated upward trend. Below, long liquidations are mainly concentrated in the 65,300–64,500 USD area, but liquidation pressure is weaker than above, so the current liquidation structure overall still leans towards sweeping short liquidity upward first.
• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC Spot ETF net inflow approx. 203 million USD yesterday, current 24h dynamic net inflow 0.3 billion USD, net inflow for 7 consecutive days.

Driver Analysis: At the macro level, US-Iran tensions and warming rate hike expectations suppressed risk assets, BTC fell from high levels. ETF fund inflows slowed significantly, showing strong institutional wait-and-see sentiment. Leverage liquidation scale is controllable, no large-scale stampede occurred. Technically, BTC still oscillates around 66000, long-short divergence is obvious. Clarity Act legislative progress (prohibiting presidents and federal officials from issuing digital assets) triggered market discussion on the pace of regulatory implementation, possibly increasing volatility in the short term. Overall trend is still dominated by macro and capital flows, ETH relative resilience is slightly stronger than BTC.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: 52218.58 points (-0.01%), almost flat, showed defensive attributes
• S&P 500: 7498.96 points (-0.14%), closed slightly lower, weighted stocks dragged down
• Nasdaq: 25690.90 points (-0.57%), tech stocks generally under pressure

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: 212.06 USD (+2.30%)
• AAPL: 325.89 USD (-0.56%)
• MSFT: 390.34 USD (-1.86%)
• GOOGL: 342.09 USD (-1.46%)
• AMZN: 244.85 USD (-1.09%)
• META: 627.17 USD (-2.58%)
• TSLA: 374.01 USD (-1.30%)

Performance Summary and Driver Analysis: Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 0.44% against the trend, NVIDIA and Broadcom led gains, reflecting AI infrastructure demand remains strong. But software and application sectors softened significantly, Palantir fell over 6%, Salesforce fell over 4%. Alphabet and Tesla after-hours earnings although revenue shone, but due to capital expenditure significantly raised and cash flow turning negative triggered market concerns about "cash burn" speed, leading to intensified individual stock divergence. Overall sector presents "Hardware AI benefits, Software and partial consumer electronics under pressure" characteristics, valuation and cash flow became core for investors to reprice.

Sector Movement Observation

Application Software Sector Drops About 3%+

• Representative Stocks: Palantir fell 6.1%, Salesforce fell 4.15%
• Drivers: Market tolerance for high-valuation growth stocks declines in environment of warming rate hike expectations, coupled with some company guidance missing expectations.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Up 0.44%

• Representative Stocks: NVIDIA up 2.3%, Broadcom up 2.67%
• Drivers: AI computing power and data center construction demand continues, OpenAI and other giants raising expenditure expectations provides support.

III. US Stock Individual Deep Dive

1. Alphabet - Cloud Business Exceeds Expectations but Cash Flow Turns Negative for First Time Event Overview: Q2 revenue and earnings both exceeded expectations, Google Cloud achieved strongest growth in recent quarters, backlog orders reached 514 billion USD. Company raised full-year capital expenditure to 195-205 billion USD to accelerate AI computing power expansion. First historical negative free cash flow, after-hours stock price fell over 3%. Market Interpretation: Institutions recognize cloud business and AI implementation progress, but express vigilance on significant capital expenditure raise and cash flow deterioration, worried about return cycle lengthening. Investment Implication: AI investment competition enters white-hot stage, cash flow quality becomes key for next phase pricing.
2. Tesla - Revenue Exceeds Expectations Profit Dims, Cash Flow Turns Negative Event Overview: Q2 revenue 28.236 billion USD, YoY +26%, exceeding market expectations; Auto department revenue 20.516 billion USD. Profit dimmed due to average selling price decline and promotions, capital expenditure missed target, cash flow turned negative. Company emphasized it is in largest investment stage. Market Interpretation: Strong delivery affirmed, but profit margin and cash flow pressure make investors re-evaluate robot and autonomous driving investment pace. Investment Implication: Balance between sales volume and profit remains core contradiction, need to focus on subsequent gross margin improvement path.
3. Texas Instruments - Revenue and Guidance Both Exceed Expectations Event Overview: Q2 revenue 5.46 billion USD, exceeded expectations; Q3 guidance 5.65-6.15 billion USD also higher than market expectations. Industrial, Data Center and Auto business led gains, full-year shareholder return approx. 5.8 billion USD. Market Interpretation: Analog chip demand warming confirmed by institutions, Data Center and Auto become new growth engines. Investment Implication: Cycle recovery and structural demand coexist, valuation has relative safety margin.
4. ServiceNow - Subscription Growth Strong, AI Agent Deployment Explodes Event Overview: Q2 revenue 3.987 billion USD, YoY +24%; Subscription revenue growth 24.5%. Remaining performance obligations reached 29 billion USD, AI agent deployment grew nine times in nine months. Market Interpretation: Enterprise software and cybersecurity demand robust, AI implementation effects recognized. Investment Implication: High-quality recurring revenue and AI monetization ability support long-term growth logic.
5. IBM - Revenue Slight Growth but Guidance Lowered Event Overview: Q2 revenue 17.2 billion USD, YoY +1%; Adjusted EPS below expectations. Full-year revenue growth guidance lowered from "over 5%" to "4%-5%", Mainframe business declined significantly. Market Interpretation: Software business robust but hardware drag obvious, guidance lowering triggered caution. Investment Implication: Transformation process still needs time verification, focus on software proportion increase speed.

IV. Market & Project Dynamics

1. Grayscale Research Head Zach Pandl posted that Bitcoin bear market bottom may have formed. He believes Bitcoin has "matured" into a macro asset, price will be driven by macro factors like real interest rates and economic growth, rather than four-year halving cycle. Historically Bitcoin bear markets correspond to economic growth slowdown and real interest rate rise, current macro background similar to past. If Fed gives up rate hikes and economy remains good, Bitcoin price may have bottomed.

2. Google parent company Alphabet announced 2026 fiscal year Q2 earnings local time July 22. Quarter company achieved revenue 119.8 billion USD, YoY +24%, 12th consecutive quarter achieving double-digit growth, higher than market expectations; GAAP operating profit 40.8 billion USD, YoY +30%, operating profit margin raised to 34%; GAAP EPS 9.11 USD, higher than market expectations. Notably, quarter net profit significantly boosted by investment income (including some equity investment fair value changes).

3. Tesla maintained its Bitcoin holdings unchanged in Q2, still holding 11,509 BTC, continuing record of not buying/selling Bitcoin for nearly four years. Affected by Bitcoin falling from approx. 83,000 USD to 58,000 USD in quarter, Tesla reported its digital asset holdings generated 112 million USD after-tax impairment loss.

4. Apple plans to upgrade full series Mac including iMac, MacBook Pro, MacBook Air, Mac mini, Mac Studio during this autumn to next year, to adapt to growing AI computing demand. Report points out Apple will launch entry-level 14-inch MacBook Pro equipped with new M6 chip, and iMac updated for first time in two years, and publish high-end 14/16-inch MacBook adopting OLED touch screen, equipped with M5 Pro/M5 Max chips during year-end to early next year. Company is also developing new MacBook Pro, MacBook Air and OLED iMac equipped with M7 series chips, and upgrade A19 Pro chip and memory configuration for MacBook Neo facing entry market. Current Mac mini and Mac Studio demand is strong in AI application scenarios, some model delivery cycles extended to three months, supply tension also affects new model launch pace.

5. Sui officially announced its Bitcoin cross-chain solution Hashi published this March now launched on testnet, allowing users to use native BTC as programmable collateral on Sui without needing to transfer BTC out of Bitcoin mainnet. Official says Hashi adopts 2-of-2 multi-sig mechanism via Guardian Layer, managed by Hashi validators and independent guardians jointly signing to manage BTC staked assets.

6. OpenAI is expanding its data center scale and increasing expenditure budget in this field. According to insiders, OpenAI has raised its computing power expenditure forecast to 2030 from approx. 600 billion USD earlier this year to approx. 750 billion USD.

7. Anthropic will start buying up to 2 Gigawatts of AMD (AMD.O) latest generation chips (named Instinct MI450) in first half of 2027.

V. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Preview

July 23 (Thursday)

American Airlines, BlackStone, Lockheed Martin, Nokia, Raytheon Technologies will announce earnings before US stock market open ★★★★★ Intel releases earnings after market, focus on chip demand and AI related prospects;

July 24 (Friday)

★★★★ Trump attends White House Correspondents' Dinner, speech content may affect market; ★★★★ AMD holds Advancing AI Conference, CEO Lisa Su gives speech, discussing AI agents, model optimization etc.

Institutional Views:

US stocks closed slightly lower within 24h against background of oil price rise and warming rate hike expectations, tech stocks diverged obviously. Institutions generally believe Alphabet and Tesla earnings verified AI and EV demand, but capital expenditure and cash flow turning negative made market diverge on return cycle. Crude oil surged on geopolitical risks reinforcing hawkish pricing, Gold Silver simultaneously benefited from safe-haven. Crypto market oscillated due to regulatory legislation expectations and macro suppression. Comprehensively, short-term market will seek balance between "AI long-term narrative" and "short-term policy and geopolitical risks", capital prefers targets with clear cash flow improvement paths.

Disclaimer: Above content organized by AI search, manual verification only for publication, not as any investment advice. Data in text inevitably exists deviations, please refer to market instant data for accuracy.