Will Musk Create Another Capital Myth? SpaceX IPO Looms, Stock Volatility Could Exceed Tesla’s

Source: JINSHI Data

Over the past few years, as SpaceX has gradually evolved into a dominant force in the aerospace industry, market interest in the company has grown exponentially. However, investors should anticipate significant stock price volatility following its public listing.

According to Bloomberg, SpaceX could confidentially file its IPO application as early as this month, seeking a valuation exceeding $1.75 trillion. The company plans to go public in June—potentially coinciding with Elon Musk’s birthday or a rare planetary alignment. SpaceX, headquartered in Starbase, Texas, is estimated to be valued at approximately $1.25 trillion following its recent absorption of Musk’s artificial intelligence company, xAI.

In a report released Tuesday, PitchBook analyst Franco Granda wrote that SpaceX’s post-IPO stock performance will resemble that of Tesla (TSLA.O), “but with even greater volatility.”

Growth Outlook: Starlink to Drive Primary Revenue

PitchBook projects that SpaceX’s revenue will reach $150 billion by 2040, with adjusted profits hitting $95 billion.

By comparison, the company generated roughly $16 billion in revenue and about $8 billion in profit last year. Approximately $42 billion annually could come from Starlink—the satellite internet business, which currently contributes the majority of SpaceX’s cash flow.

This forecast excludes xAI’s operations. While xAI is currently burning cash at a rapid pace, it may secure additional contracts from the U.S. Department of Defense in the future. The projection also assumes no merger between Tesla and SpaceX—though Musk and some analysts have previously floated such a possibility.

In November last year, Musk wrote on X: “My companies are, somewhat surprisingly, converging.”

The Musk Effect: Vision-Driven—but Timelines Often Delayed

Granda noted that many lessons investors learned from Tesla may apply equally to SpaceX—for instance, both companies are heavily influenced by Musk’s famously public optimism.

Granda cited Tesla’s 2017 pledge to produce 5,000 vehicles per week by year-end—a goal that led the company into “production hell” and ultimately went unmet. Yet when Tesla finally achieved that milestone in mid-2018, its stock surged.

SpaceX has faced similar delays. Its Starship super-heavy rocket program has encountered repeated setbacks, as have other spacecraft initiatives throughout the company’s history. Musk once set 2022 as the “ideal target” for launching an unmanned mission to Mars—but as of 2026, that mission remains years away.

Investors, however, have grown accustomed to Musk’s timelines being somewhat “elastic.”

Thus, when the December deadline for Tesla’s robotaxi project passed without fanfare, investors did not panic. Later, when Musk eventually delivered—albeit later than promised—the stock rose accordingly. Granda calls this phenomenon the “credibility ledger”: investors automatically factor in delays but remain focused on the overarching vision.

That may work in SpaceX’s favor. The company recently postponed its Mars colonization timeline while simultaneously applying to regulators for permission to launch up to one million orbital “space data centers”—a plan contingent upon Starship’s progress. SpaceX has also announced plans to build a city on the Moon.

Post-IPO Challenges: Higher Volatility and Heavy Reliance on Musk

Yet as a publicly traded company, SpaceX must still deliver on these ambitious goals—and continue making progress across both xAI and Starlink—while facing scrutiny from Wall Street investors. Market reactions could therefore be extremely sharp.

Granda forecasts that news events typically causing 10%–15% swings in Tesla’s stock could trigger 20%–30% moves in SpaceX shares—partly because SpaceX expects only around 3.3% of its shares to be publicly traded.

SpaceX stock may also benefit from what’s known as the “Musk premium.” Even amid declines in Tesla’s core electric vehicle business, this premium has helped sustain its share price. Yet this halo effect also implies deep dependence on Musk himself.

Andres Sheppard, analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, previously stated:

“Today, over 50% of shareholders view Tesla as synonymous with Elon—and Elon as synonymous with Tesla. Many, perhaps even most, directly tie Tesla’s success to Elon’s tenure.”

Tesla’s annual report likewise acknowledges its reliance on Musk and warns that forced sales of part of his stake could depress the stock price. Founded by Musk over two decades ago, SpaceX currently sees him holding approximately 44% of its equity—suggesting similarly high CEO dependency.

Granda notes that negative news from Tesla is likely to weigh on SpaceX’s stock—and vice versa. Moreover, Musk’s political stances have previously sparked controversy and impacted Tesla’s sales. Granda concludes:

“A lower free-float ratio, earlier-stage technologies, and highly concentrated exposure to Musk collectively imply volatility potentially exceeding even Tesla’s historically extreme fluctuations.”