Changxin Technology Surges 453% on First Day, Breaking A-Share Trading Record; On-Chain Predicted Higher Price Two Weeks Ago

Author: Claude, TechFlow

TechFlow Editor's Note: On July 27, Changxin Technology listed on the STAR Market, opening up 471.59% at 49.5 yuan, with a market cap of 3.31 trillion yuan, surpassing ICBC to top the A-share market. Full-day turnover reached 90.1 billion yuan, setting a new record for single-day turnover of an individual stock. This market cap is equivalent to 46% of Micron's, yet the freely tradable shares are only 3% of Micron's. Two weeks before the A-share opening, CXMT pre-market contracts on Hyperliquid had already pushed the price to $8.64, equivalent to about 58 yuan, 18% higher than the opening price.

Changxin Technology rewrote two A-share records in one day.

On July 27, this domestic DRAM leader listed on the SSE STAR Market with an issue price of 8.66 yuan, opening at 49.5 yuan, a gain of 471.59%, total market cap of 3.31 trillion yuan, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China on the spot to become the largest by market cap in the A-share market. Closing gain was 453%, full-day turnover of 90.1 billion yuan, exceeding the 90 billion yuan set by East Money on October 9, 2024, becoming a new high for single-day turnover of an individual stock in the A-share market.

What really concerns the crypto market is another line. On July 14, Trade.xyz launched CXMT pre-market perpetual contracts via Hyperliquid's HIP-3 framework, code xyz:CXMT, with $5 as the initial reference price, supporting up to 5x leverage, settled in USDC. After the contract went live, the price touched $6, $7.2, and $8.64 successively. Calculated at the exchange rate of about 6.77 in mid-July, $8.64 was equivalent to 58.5 yuan per share, 18% higher than the 49.5 yuan opened in the A-share market 13 days later.

Topping A-share Market Cap List at Opening, Single-day Turnover Only 100 Million More Than Old Record

The scale of CXMT's IPO itself is a record. Total funds actually raised were about 57.919 billion yuan, about 66.607 billion yuan after full exercise of the over-allotment option, becoming the largest IPO in the history of the STAR Market, exceeding SMIC's 53.2 billion yuan in 2020.

The number of people rushing for shares also set a record. 9.4288 million valid online subscription accounts, winning rate of about 0.47%, 7.7022 million online lottery winning numbers, each winning number subscribes to 500 shares. Calculated at the opening price of 49.5 yuan, winning one lot yields a floating profit of 20,420 yuan; Taking profits at the closing price of 47.89 yuan, one lot yields about 19,600 yuan.

The supply side was locked up. Total share capital after issuance was 66.881 billion shares, tradable shares on the first day were only 4.503 billion shares, accounting for 6.73%. There are no price limits for the first five trading days of new STAR Market stocks, temporary suspensions occur when price fluctuations hit the 30% and 60% thresholds. A extremely small float paired with no price limits for the first five days, this is how the 90.1 billion yuan turnover was achieved, and this figure is only 100 million yuan more than the old record.

Fundamentals support part of it. Q1 2026 revenue was 50.8 billion yuan, up 719.13% year-on-year, net profit attributable to the parent was 24.762 billion yuan; The company expects net profit attributable to the parent for the first half of the year to be between 50 billion and 57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 22 times.<cite index="14-1">Calculated based on DRAM sales in Q4 2025, CXMT's global market share rose to 7.67%, becoming the fourth largest DRAM manufacturer globally.

The company itself included a cold water statement in the prospectus, stating that the DRAM industry has characteristics of strong cyclicality and high volatility, current product prices are at a high level, continuous significant increases are not sustainable.

Market Cap Already Half of Micron's, Only 3% of Micron's Tradable Shares

Placing CXMT in the global storage coordinate system makes the position clearer.

Calculated based on the closing price of 47.89 yuan and total share capital of 66.881 billion shares, CXMT's total market cap is about 3.20 trillion yuan, equivalent to about $473.1 billion. At the same time, the stock price of Micron, the world's third largest DRAM manufacturer, was $910.77, corresponding to a total share capital of about 1.13 billion shares, market cap of about $1.03 trillion. CXMT made itself 46% of Micron in one day.

The shares available for trading are completely not in the same league. CXMT's 4.503 billion shares tradable on the first day, corresponding to a circulating market cap of about 215.6 billion yuan at the closing price, equivalent to $31.8 billion; Micron's shares are basically all freely tradable. Total market cap is 46% of Micron's, the freely tradable part is only 3.1% of Micron's.

This is where the source of the 3.2 trillion yuan market cap lies. What supports it is not 3.2 trillion yuan of real money, but a price set by $31.8 billion of floating chips in the turnover of 90.1 billion yuan.

The gap in valuation multiples is more straightforward. Simply annualized based on the net profit forecast of 50 billion to 57 billion yuan for the first half of the year, CXMT's 2026 net profit falls in the range of 100 billion to 114 billion yuan. The P/E ratio corresponding to the issue price is about 5.8 times, at the same level as Samsung and SK Hynix; The P/E ratio corresponding to the closing price jumps to about 30 times. Micron's current forward P/E ratio is 6.77 times.

And the leader of this storage cycle is already retracing. Micron's 52-week high was $1255, closed at $910.77 on July 26, down about 27% from the high. The STAR 50 Index closed at 1787.20 points as of July 24, down about 17% cumulatively since July, retracing about 19% from the high on June 30.

Investors preparing to catch in the secondary market can consider the following data:

A 3% float ratio means it rises fast and falls fast, a 30x P/E ratio means assumptions for the cycle continuing upward are already fully priced in, while the leader of the cycle itself is moving downward.

On-chain Pre-market Starting at $5, Pushed Up 73% in 13 Days

HIP-3 is a set of permissions Hyperliquid opens to third parties, anyone can deploy a perpetual contract market themselves by posting sufficient margin, underlying assets are not limited to cryptocurrencies. Trade.xyz used it to open a pre-market for Changxin Technology.

This contract trades the market's expectation of the per-share value of CXMT after listing, cash settled, tracking the USD value of one ordinary A-share, not the company's total market cap.

Holding the contract does not grant IPO allocation, dividends, or voting rights, nor can it be exchanged for real stock after listing.

Trade.xyz artificially set an initial reference price of $5, thereafter the transaction price was mainly determined by buy and sell supply and demand on the on-chain order book. There was no tradable spot before listing, the contract price did not have to be close to the issue price of 8.66 yuan. To prevent someone from pumping the price with a single order, the contract set price guards, single-tier Discovery Bound is 20%, and allows re-anchoring up and down 7 times each, therefore the price touched $6, $7.2, and $8.64 successively.

The size of this pool is not small currently. As of July 16, CXMT mark price was about $7.37, 24-hour turnover was about $50.56 million, open interest nominal value was about $23.07 million, trading volume showed a more significant increase after today's opening.

Previously, the neutral range given by sellers and institutions was 30 to 45 yuan, corresponding to a gain of about 240% to 420%. Public calculations were more conservative, some views held that even if the market was hot, the short-term maximum gain would not exceed 400%, corresponding to a stock price of 43.3 yuan. Both sets of predictions were lower than the actual opening price of 49.5 yuan.

The on-chain market gave another answer. On July 16,  Trade.xyz was about 49.9 yuan, only 0.8% different from the A-share opening price of 49.5 yuan 11 days later. The peak of $8.64 converts to 58.5 yuan, 18% higher than the actual opening.

In terms of direction and magnitude, on-chain is closer to the truth than sellers.

This is not the first time the on-chain pre-market has approached the answer. This May, before AI chip company Cerebras listed, Hyperliquid pre-market contracts differed from the Nasdaq opening price by only 1.3%; On the day of SpaceX IPO in June, on-chain contracts single-day turnover was $1.38 billion. But targeting A-share STAR Market targets, this is the first time.

For those tracking IPOs, this on-chain curve now has reference value, but there are only three samples, two of which are US stocks. Using it as a leading indicator for A-share pricing may be too early.