Nomura: ChangXin Surges 471% on First-Day Opening, Target Price of 116 Yuan Implies 12x Upside
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Nomura: ChangXin Surges 471% on First-Day Opening, Target Price of 116 Yuan Implies 12x Upside
According to Chaoxiang Research, CXMT listed on the STAR Market on July 27, surging 471% at opening, with market capitalization briefly exceeding 3.3 trillion yuan. Nomura Securities released its initiation report on the same day, granting a Buy rating with a target price of 116 yuan, corresponding to a 20x P/E ratio based on 2028 EPS of 5.8 yuan, implying over 12x upside based on an issue price of 8.66 yuan. Nomura noted that AI is driving a structural surge in DRAM demand, with AI memory demand CAGR exceeding 60% from 2026 to 2030, while global supply growth rate is only 30% to 40%, and the supply-demand gap will continue to widen. As the world's fourth-largest DRAM manufacturer, CXMT currently holds a global share of about 10%, expected to rise to 18% by the end of 2028, approaching Micron's scale. Q1 2026 revenue was 50.8 billion yuan (YoY +719%), and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 24.76 billion yuan (YoY +1688%), with quarterly profit already exceeding the full year 2025. Nomura believes CXMT should enjoy a "China premium," with the 20x PE valuation based on the midpoint between Micron's 10x historical average and the 1 to 3x valuation gap between Chinese and US semiconductor equipment stocks. Northeast Securities gave a valuation range of 3.2 to 5.7 trillion yuan on the same day, while Nomura's 7.76 trillion yuan is relatively optimistic; the core divergence lies in CXMT's long-term market share ceiling.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsTechFlow news, According to Chaoxiang Research, Changxin Technology listed on the STAR Market on July 27, surging 471% at the open, with market cap briefly exceeding 3.3 trillion yuan. Nomura Securities released its initial coverage report on the same day, giving a buy rating, with a target price of 116 yuan, corresponding to 20 times PE based on 2028 EPS of 5.8 yuan, implying over 12 times upside potential calculated based on the issue price of 8.66 yuan. Nomura pointed out that AI is driving a structural explosion in DRAM demand, with AI memory demand CAGR exceeding 60% from 2026 to 2030, while global supply growth is only 30% to 40%, and the supply-demand gap will continue to widen.
As the fourth largest DRAM manufacturer globally, Changxin currently holds about 10% global share, expected to rise to 18% by the end of 2028, approaching Micron's scale. Q1 2026 revenue was 50.8 billion yuan (YoY +719%), net profit attributable to parent was 24.76 billion yuan (YoY +1688%), single-quarter profit has already exceeded the full year of 2025. Nomura believes Changxin should enjoy a "China premium", the 20 times PE valuation is based on the midpoint between Micron's 10 times historical average and the 1 to 3 times valuation gap between Chinese and US semiconductor equipment stocks. Northeast Securities gave a valuation range of 3.2 to 5.7 trillion yuan on the same day, while Nomura's 7.76 trillion yuan is relatively optimistic, the core disagreement lies in the ceiling of Changxin's long-term share.
