TechFlow news, according to TechFlow Research, JPMorgan Chase's July 20 US stock strategy report estimates that global AI-related capital expenditure will approach $870 billion in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 77%, of which hyperscalers will contribute approximately $750 billion. In 2027, growth rates will remain as high as Google +54% (approx. $300 billion), Amazon +42% (approx. $300 billion), and Meta +42% (approx. $200 billion). Bond financing by the five major tech giants rose from $40-50 billion in 2022 to approximately $190 billion in 2026, and Google completed $85 billion in equity financing in June.
JPMorgan Chase judges that the AI supercycle has not ended, but the investment logic is shifting from "competing on capital expenditure" to "competing on commercial monetization". In the medium term, the risk-reward ratio of hyperscalers is superior to AI hardware, with the free cash flow inflection point occurring as early as 2027. Semiconductor fundamentals remain healthy, with revenue growth excluding memory expected to exceed 30% this year; however, the hardware sector has recently corrected by about 15%, crowding has not been cleared, and volatility may persist. The energy sector's market cap accounts for only 4% of the S&P but contributes 23% of earnings growth.
In terms of timing, Google will announce earnings on July 22, Microsoft and Meta on July 29, Amazon on July 31, and Nvidia on August 26, with capital expenditure guidance remaining the core barometer.
