TechFlow News, June 25: According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin continued weakening ahead of the expiration of $10 billion worth of options, trading significantly below the widely discussed “max pain” price of $72,000—reigniting market skepticism about the validity of the max pain theory. The max pain theory posits that options sellers may manipulate the underlying asset’s price toward the max pain level to maximize their profits by causing the greatest losses to options buyers at expiration. This theory previously attracted attention when Bitcoin’s price approached relevant ranges before certain monthly and quarterly option expirations. However, recently Bitcoin fell from approximately $67,000 to below $60,000—moving away from, rather than toward, the $72,000 level, contradicting the theory’s prediction. Jasper De Maere, OTC trader at Wintermute, noted that despite the massive size of this options expiry, no clear price anchoring effect has emerged in recent markets.
Nonetheless, market participants remain attentive to volatility risks stemming from this options expiry. Deribit previously stated that the June quarterly options expiry ranks among the year’s largest liquidity events, with a large volume of contracts either expiring or rolling into subsequent cycles—potentially intensifying short-term market volatility.
