TechFlow News, April 5: According to JIN10 Data, economists say the sharp rise in gasoline prices—acutely felt by U.S. consumers—will be fully reflected in this week’s key inflation data. The U.S. CPI for March is expected to rise 1% month-on-month—the largest single-month increase since 2022—while core CPI is projected to rise 0.3% month-on-month. Prior to this, the Iran-related conflict drove up gasoline prices at U.S. service stations by approximately $1 per gallon.
One day before the CPI release, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—the core PCE price index—will provide insights into pre-conflict price pressures. Economists anticipate the core PCE price index rose 0.4% month-on-month in February, marking the third consecutive month of such gains—indicating that the disinflation process had already stalled even before the outbreak of hostilities. Coupled with signs of stabilization in the U.S. labor market, persistent price pressures, and new inflation risks stemming from the Middle East conflict, these factors help explain why the Fed may struggle to cut interest rates this year.
