TechFlow News, March 5: According to data from JIN10, analysts at UBS Group stated in a report that historical data since 1900 shows economic risks have proven more significant for financial markets than geopolitical risks. They noted that investors tend to perform best when they can “see through” the noise of geopolitical developments. The analysts added: “A simple regression analysis of future global equity returns against the Geopolitical Threat Index reveals no correlation—whether viewed over a one-month or one-year horizon.” However, geopolitical risk becomes clearly critical during “extreme events with major economic consequences,” such as World War I, World War II, and the 1973–1974 oil crisis. Yet they emphasized that such events are “relatively rare,” and historically, economic risks have consistently mattered more to investors.
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