Bitget UEX Daily | US-Iran Pause Mutual Attacks, Oil Prices Drop Sharply; Key Week for US Tech Stocks, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, SK Hynix, etc. to Release Earnings

I. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Oil Price Decline Eases Rate Hike Pressure, Market Focuses on Subsequent Policy Path

• After the suspension of the Middle East conflict, Crude Oil fell sharply, and rate hike expectations that had heated up due to soaring oil prices have cooled down.
• The market continues to assess the inflation path and the Federal Reserve's next moves. Market Impact: The decline in energy prices helps alleviate short-term inflation concerns, supports interest rate-sensitive assets, and risk appetite has recovered.

International Commodities

US-Iran Suspend Mutual Strikes, Oil Prices Fall Sharply

• The US and Iran have suspended mutual military strikes for consecutive days, both sides released signals of easing, driving expectations for ceasefire negotiations.
• Brent Crude and WTI Crude prices fell significantly, alleviating previous geopolitical risk premiums. Market Impact: Geopolitical risk premiums faded quickly, the decline in energy prices directly reduces inflation concerns, benefiting risk assets and suppressing safe-haven demand.

II. Market Review

Commodities & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Approx. 4,109 USD/oz, +1.36%
• Spot Silver: Approx. 60.0 USD/oz, +2.45%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approx. 85.4 USD/barrel, -4.42%
• Brent Crude: Approx. 82.68 USD/barrel, -4.33%
• US Dollar Index (DXY): Approx. 101.7, -0.3%

Driver Analysis: The suspension of mutual strikes between the US and Iran significantly reduced geopolitical risk premiums, and the sharp decline in crude oil prices became the dominant factor. Gold and Silver performed divergently amidst falling oil prices and recovering risk appetite, with Silver's industrial attributes providing support. The US Dollar remained relatively stable. Institutional views suggest that short-term commodities are dominated by geopolitical easing, and the decline in energy prices helps alleviate inflation and rate hike expectations. Asset linkage shows a positive chain of falling oil prices → cooling inflation concerns → support for risk assets.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Approx. 65,195 USD, +1.11%
• ETH: Approx. 1,974 USD, +3.65%
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approx. 2.31 Trillion USD, +1.7%
• Market Liquidation Status: 24h total liquidation approx. 213 Million USD, short liquidation 160 Million USD
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price approx. 65,139 USD, downside long liquidation pressure has been largely released, while a large cluster of short liquidation orders is gathered near 65,700–66,000 USD. If prices continue to rise, it is easy to trigger short covering, amplifying upward momentum. 63,800–64,200 USD was the previous major long liquidation dense zone, which has been largely cleaned out; short-term market leverage focus has shifted upward, pay attention to the chain reaction of short liquidations in the 65,800–67,100 USD range and sustainability after breakthrough.

Driver Analysis: Easing of Middle East conflict and falling oil prices boosted risk appetite, and the crypto market followed with recovery. BTC held key ranges and moved slightly upward, ETH elasticity was relatively better. Improved macro environment and funding side jointly support short-term trends. Institutional consensus points to oscillating recovery, but ETF fund flow volatility and leverage liquidations show the market remains cautious. Need to be wary of geopolitical fluctuations disturbing sentiment.

US Stock Index Performance

As of close last Friday:

• Dow Jones: Closed approx. 51,947 points, up 0.46%
• S&P 500: Closed approx. 7,412 points, up 0.05%
• Nasdaq: Closed approx. 24,976 points, down 0.64%, tech sector still under pressure

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: 206.84 USD, down 0.92%
• AAPL: 333.02 USD, up 3.53%
• MSFT: 381.70 USD, up 0.03%
• GOOGL: 319.74 USD, up 0.65%
• AMZN: 232.11 USD, down 0.66%
• META: 595.19 USD, down 1.80%
• TSLA: 313.03 USD, down 2.08%

Performance Summary and Driver Analysis: The Magnificent Seven showed significant divergence. Apple surged 3.53% against the trend, becoming the main supporting force; Microsoft and Google closed slightly higher. NVIDIA, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla recorded declines, with Tesla's decline being relatively larger. Previous concerns about AI capital expenditure still suppress high-valuation growth stocks, but geopolitical easing and falling oil prices provide some support. Individual stock divergence reflects the market shifting from pure theme trading to repricing based on company fundamentals and capital expenditure efficiency.

Sector Movement Observation

Semiconductor/Memory Sector Significant Correction (Leading Decline)

• Representative Stocks: Micron Technology (MU) down 6.99%, Intel (INTC) down 7.89%, Western Digital (WDC) down approx. 6.9%, Marvell (MRVL) down approx. 7.3%.
• Drivers: Obvious profit-taking after previous AI demand expectations pushed prices up, coupled with market concerns about the pace of capital expenditure returns. Memory and semiconductor sub-sector elasticity amplified, becoming one of the largest declining sectors of the day.

Optical Communication/Related Tech Significant Decline

• Representative Stocks: Coherent (COHR) down approx. 9.8%, Lumentum (LITE) down approx. 8.5%.
• Drivers: AI optical module and interconnect theme heat cooled, funds withdrew from high-elasticity niche fields.

Software and Some Growth Stocks Relatively Resilient or Rising

• Representative Stocks: ServiceNow (NOW) up approx. 7.4%, some software and service targets performed well.
• Drivers: Amid concerns about high AI hardware investment, funds partially flowed to software and cloud service related targets, showing divergence.

Energy Sector Performance Stable

• Representative Stocks: Exxon Mobil (XOM) up 0.03%, Chevron (CVX) up 0.19%.
• Drivers: Oil prices at Friday's close had not fully reflected the weekend conflict easing, sector remained relatively robust; may face pressure on Monday after sharp crude drop over the weekend.

III. US Stock Individual Deep Dive

1. Intel (INTC) - Q2 Earnings Greatly Exceeded Expectations, AI Drives CPU Revival

Event Overview: Intel Q2 revenue 16.13 Billion USD, YoY +25% (strongest growth in 15 years), adjusted EPS 0.42 USD (far exceeding estimate 0.21 USD). Data Center and AI business revenue 6.26 Billion USD, YoY +59%; Client Computing grew 13%, Foundry business grew 31%. Operating margin improved significantly from negative value in the same period last year to approx. 17%, operating cash flow YoY +240%. Company guided Q3 revenue 15.8-16.8 Billion USD, adjusted EPS 0.38 USD, both higher than market expectations. CEO emphasized AI is driving unprecedented computing demand, 2027 capital expenditure will be significantly higher than 2026. Market Interpretation: Institutions generally recognize this as a real turning signal, AI demand has significantly revived its server CPU business and brought strong operating leverage. Some analysts (such as Seeking Alpha views) point out that the foundry business is still severely loss-making and highly dependent on internal demand, external customer progress is limited, current valuation has already priced in foundry break-even and continuous high growth assumptions, thus giving a "Hold" rating. Wall Street is also paying attention to 18A process progress, potential external large customers (such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon) and the impact of significant capital expenditure increase on free cash flow. Investment Implication: Earnings and guidance validate the pull of AI on CPU demand, mid-term logic improved, but need to closely track foundry external order landing and capital expenditure return pace, avoid valuation overextension risk.

2. Tesla (TSLA) - Deliveries Hit Record but Profits Declined Sharply

Event Overview: Tesla Q2 revenue hit record 28.24 Billion USD (YoY +26%), delivery volume 480,100 units hit new high. But adjusted EPS only 0.33 USD (far below estimate approx. 0.53 USD), operating profit YoY -57% to 398 Million USD, operating margin dropped sharply from 4.1% last year to 1.4%. Free cash flow turned negative approx. 1.09 Billion USD, capital expenditure YoY +142% to 5.79 Billion USD, mainly used for AI, Robotaxi and Optimus. Regulatory credit income fell sharply 67%. Energy storage deployment reached 13.5 GWh. Musk continued to emphasize Robotaxi and Optimus progress on the conference call, but the market is highly skeptical about timeline delivery. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe strong deliveries cannot cover the core issues of deteriorating profits and cash flow, high AI and robot investment leads to significant short-term profitability pressure. Analysts point out valuation implies extremely high growth expectations, if Robotaxi and Optimus commercialization progress falls short of expectations, downside risk is large. Some views emphasize energy business is a highlight, but overall still need to observe return conversion after capital expenditure peak. Investment Implication: Short-term volatility remains large, pay attention to subsequent Robotaxi actual operating mileage, FSD subscription growth and full-year capital expenditure guidance adjustment, verify if AI narrative can transform into sustainable profits.

3. Google (GOOGL) - Cloud Business Explosion and Capital Expenditure Re-upside Game

Event Overview: Alphabet Q2 revenue approx. 119.8 Billion USD (YoY approx. +24%), Google Cloud revenue 24.8 Billion USD, YoY +82%, operating profit significantly improved, cloud backlog rose to 514 Billion USD. But company raised full-year capital expenditure guidance to 195-205 Billion USD (previous 180-190 Billion USD), single quarter capital expenditure approx. 44.9 Billion USD, free cash flow turned negative approx. 5.9 Billion USD. Management emphasized demand still exceeds supply, will continue to expand self-built and leased capacity. Market Interpretation: Institutions recognize the strength of cloud business and AI infrastructure demand, but worry continuous significant capital expenditure increase will extend return cycle and suppress short-term cash flow. Analysts focus on search advertising resilience, TPU sales pace and whether 2027 capital expenditure continues to climb. Market sentiment shifted from "growth confirmation" to "investment efficiency verification". Investment Implication: Long-term cloud and AI ecosystem advantage is clear, but short-term need to track capital expenditure and revenue conversion match, pay attention to backlog conversion speed to actual revenue.

4. AMD - Cooperating with Cerebras to Promote AI Inference Differentiation

Event Overview: AMD announced cooperation with Cerebras Systems, combining Helios rack-level system with Cerebras wafer-scale chips, launching joint solution for ultra-low latency inference, expected to launch via Cerebras Cloud later this year. AMD chips focus on prompt processing and large context windows, Cerebras focuses on high bandwidth token generation, claiming higher performance per watt. Previously AMD announced supplying up to 2 GW computing power to Anthropic and investing up to 5 Billion USD. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this reflects the AI workload "disaggregation" trend, helping AMD form differentiated competition with NVIDIA in the inference market. Analysts focus on cooperation landing timeline, actual performance comparison and whether it can transform into continuous orders. Multi-supplier pattern is beneficial for AMD mid-to-long term. Investment Implication: As an important target for AI computing power diversified allocation, pay attention to product commercialization progress and customer expansion.

5. NVIDIA (NVDA) - 1.5 Billion USD Prepayment Supports US Advanced Packaging

Event Overview: NVIDIA reached multi-year strategic cooperation with Amkor Technology, providing 1.5 Billion USD prepayment, supporting Amkor to expand advanced semiconductor packaging and testing capacity in the US (especially Arizona), jointly developing packaging technology for next-generation AI and accelerated computing platforms. Cooperation covers high-density interconnect and heterogeneous integration. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this strengthens NVIDIA's supply chain control in the advanced packaging link and US local capacity layout, conforming to AI infrastructure continuous expansion and geopolitical supply chain security needs. Analysts focus on capacity landing time (Amkor project expected mass production in 2028) and impact on overall AI hardware cost and delivery pace. Investment Implication: Long-term beneficial to AI computing power leader's supply chain resilience, pay attention to packaging capacity release and potential support to gross margin.

IV. Market & Project Dynamics

1. Iranian Army Spokesperson Mohammad Akraminia told official media that due to the US not striking the country in the past two nights, retaliatory attacks have been stopped, Iran's actions are currently suspended.

Emkay Global's Madhvi Arora stated that Brent Crude's rebound is no longer driven solely by known risks in the Strait of Hormuz and latest Red Sea blockade. Nowadays, visible Strait of Hormuz shipping has dropped to near zero, global inventories have been exhausted, and new supply disruptions are exacerbating tensions. In addition, after months of Ukraine drone attacks, Russian fuel exports remain constrained; and Kazakhstan has begun cutting production after the Caspian Pipeline Consortium export terminal shutdown. Supply side is facing multiple tightenings.

2. According to GitHub Trending page information publicly displayed by Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey, Block旗下 open source collaboration platform Buzz, permissionlesstech's decentralized Bluetooth chat application BitChat and citrolabs' AI browser ego-lite entered the global hot repository list top three today.

3. Data: SUI, EIGEN, FF and other tokens will welcome large unlocks this week, among them SUI unlock value near 10 Million USD

4. According to Fortune report, US Trump government through Department of Commerce, Department of Defense, Department of Energy and US International Development Finance Corporation and at least four other institutions, in Intel, MP Materials, Vulcan Elements, xLight and multiple quantum computing companies cumulatively invested approx. 26.7 Billion USD equity or quasi-equity instruments, among them including holding Intel approx. 9.9% passive equity through US Department of Commerce, by market value has risen from approx. 8.9 Billion USD to approx. 42 Billion USD.

5. NVIDIA (NVDA.O) is negotiating to provide approx. 250 Billion USD financial guarantee for OpenAI, to support a huge data center project—this will become one of the largest financial transactions in the US AI boom.

6. South Korea's largest trading company POSCO International is cooperating with LG CNS, a technology company under LG Group, using Injective network to tokenize actual commercial invoices.

V. Today's Market Calendar

Macro Data Outlook

PAnews News, impacted by the triple shock of soaring energy prices, US launching new tariffs and AI capital expenditure surge, global investors' inflation panic is being reignited. This week US Nasdaq led the decline, tech stocks bore dual blows from macro and fundamentals throughout the week. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted 5% on Friday, memory chips bore the brunt. Investors remain cautious before the Federal Reserve policy meeting next week, many believe this may bring hawkish surprises. Below are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all UTC+8 Time Zone):

• Tuesday 20:15, US Week of July 11 ADP Employment Change Weekly;
• Thursday 02:00, Federal Reserve FOMC announces Interest Rate Decision;
• Thursday 02:30, Federal Reserve Chair Walsh holds Monetary Policy Press Conference;
• Thursday 17:00, Eurozone Q2 GDP Annual Rate Preliminary, Eurozone June Unemployment Rate, Eurozone July Industrial Sentiment Index, Eurozone July Economic Sentiment Index;
• Thursday 19:00, Bank of England announces Interest Rate Decision, Minutes and Monetary Policy Report;
• Thursday 19:30, Bank of England Governor Bailey holds Monetary Policy Press Conference;
• Thursday 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims, US June Core PCE Price Index Annual/Monthly, US June Personal Spending Monthly, US Q2 Real GDP Annualized Quarterly Preliminary/Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Quarterly Preliminary/Core PCE Price Index Annualized Quarterly Preliminary;
• Friday 17:00, Eurozone July CPI Annual/Monthly Preliminary;
• Friday 21:45, US July Chicago PMI;
• Friday 22:00, US July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Final, US July One-Year Inflation Rate Expectation Final

This week tech stock earnings come intensively, Apple (AAPL.O), Meta Platforms (META.O), Amazon (AMZN.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), Qualcomm (QCOM.O), SK Hynix and other individual stocks will announce earnings successively this week.

Institutional Views:

Investment bank analysts believe, US-Iran suspending mutual strikes significantly reduced geopolitical risk premiums, sharp decline in crude oil prices helps alleviate inflation and rate hike expectations, short-term boosts risk asset sentiment. US stocks Friday divergent close shows tech sector still suppressed by previous AI expenditure concerns, but macro environment improvement provides recovery space. Crypto market follows risk appetite recovery. Overall strategy suggests paying attention to inflation path after energy price decline and geopolitical negotiation progress, maintain flexible allocation.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, manually verified for publication only, and does not constitute any investment advice. Data in the text inevitably contains deviations, please refer to real-time market data.