Bitget UEX Daily | US Resumes Oil Sanctions on Iran and Launches Military Strikes, Driving Sharp Single-Day Oil Price Surge; Fed June Meeting Minutes Highly Anticipated, Warsh Policy Path Draws Attention
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
Bitget UEX Daily | US Resumes Oil Sanctions on Iran and Launches Military Strikes, Driving Sharp Single-Day Oil Price Surge; Fed June Meeting Minutes Highly Anticipated, Warsh Policy Path Draws Attention
Overall, it is recommended to remain cautious in the short term, prioritize allocating high-quality assets with stable cash flows and clear fundamentals, and wait for a clear direction after the minutes are released.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights
I. Key Headlines
Federal Reserve Updates
Fed June Meeting Minutes Released Tonight, New Chair Warsh's Policy Path Draws High Market Attention
- June FOMC meeting maintained federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% unchanged, statement leaned hawkish, emphasizing robust economy, inflation still above 2% target, and possible removal of dovish bias;
- New Chair Kevin Warsh's first complete meeting minutes即将 be released at 02:00 on July 9 (UTC+8), market will analyze his latest statements on inflation, employment, and long-term policy framework;
- Previously market priced in ~29% probability of rate hike in July, but focus shifts to year-end path, institutions generally believe minutes may reinforce "data-dependent" stance. Market Impact: Short-term US Treasury yields and USD likely supported, stock market volatility may rise, further delay in rate cut expectations will increase pressure on growth stocks, but clear neutral signals may alleviate some uncertainty.
International Commodities
Escalation of Middle East Geopolitical Conflict, Crude Oil Surges, Gold and Silver Under Pressure
- US Central Command related actions and Iran-Israel tensions continue to ferment, Hormuz Strait shipping risk premium rises, pushing oil prices up significantly in a single day;
- WTI and Brent crude oil rose approx 5.8% and 5.9% in 24h respectively, reflecting supply interruption concerns and safe-haven buying;
- Spot Gold, Silver fell simultaneously, coupled with stronger USD index and rising US Treasury yields, double pressure on precious metals. Market Impact: Oil prices strong short-term but EIA inventory accumulation expectations may limit upside space; precious metals short-term technical pullback, long-term still possess inflation hedge and safe-haven attributes, institutions suggest watching geopolitical developments' transmission to energy inflation.
Macroeconomic Policy
Services PMI Steady with Slight Decline, Inflation and Policy Path Become July Market Mainline
- June ISM Services PMI recorded 54.0, slightly lower than previous value but still in expansion zone, showing US economic resilience remains;
- Market focus fully shifts to tonight's Fed June minutes and subsequent inflation data, establishment of Warsh new framework review task force also draws attention;
- Geopolitical conflict pushes oil prices, may form upward pressure on core inflation through energy channels, complicating policy making. Market Impact: Policy uncertainty dominates pricing short-term, risk asset volatility intensifies; if minutes release hawkish signals, USD and US Treasuries may strengthen further, stock market high valuation sectors face greater tests.
II. Market Review
Commodities & Forex Performance (Real-time Update)
- Spot Gold: Approx 4110 USD/oz, 24h +0.08%
- Spot Silver: Approx 60.039 USD/oz, 24h +0.11%
- WTI Crude: Approx 71.94 USD/barrel, 24h +2.13%
- Brent Crude: Approx 75.66 USD/barrel, 24h +2.02%
- US Dollar Index (DXY): Approx 101.14, 24h +0.05%
Driver Analysis: Middle East geopolitical tension (US-Iran related actions and Iran-Israel conflict) is the core variable in the current market, directly pushing up crude oil risk premium and safe-haven demand, simultaneously strengthening USD and US Treasury yield support through energy inflation expectations, leading to pressure on both gold and silver. USD index rose to near 101.17, reflecting capital 回流 to US Treasury assets in uncertain environment. Institutional consensus believes oil prices short-term prone to overshooting due to geopolitical drivers, but global inventory accumulation and demand slowdown will limit medium-to-long term gains; precious metals face "strong USD + high yields" double kill, short-term technicals weak, but if geopolitical situation eases or Fed releases dovish signals, gold may rebound quickly. Asset correlation logic clear: Oil up → Inflation concerns → Rate cut expectations delayed → DXY strong → Gold/Silver under pressure, short-term risk appetite and safe-haven demand coexist, volatility expected to remain high.
Cryptocurrency Performance
- BTC: Approx 63595 USD, +0.72%
- ETH: Approx 1780 USD, +0.97%
- Total Crypto Market Cap: Approx 2.26 trillion USD, +1%
- Market Liquidation Situation: 24h total liquidations approx 306 million USD, long liquidations approx 207 million USD
- BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current BTC price approx 63,505 USD, above 64,100–64,900 USD area short liquidations dense, if price breaks through this range, may trigger concentrated short stop-losses, pushing market further higher. Below 62,300–63,200 USD area gathers more long liquidations, if price falls below current support area, may trigger chain long liquidations, short-term downside pressure will increase.
- Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC Spot ETF net inflow approx 266 million USD yesterday, current 24h dynamic outflow 33 million USD.
Driver Analysis: Under dual uncertainty of geopolitics and pre-Fed minutes, BTC and ETH rebounded slightly, showing market resilience. Continuous ETF inflows (recorded positive inflows this week) provide important support for spot prices, institutional capital entry willingness not significantly weakened by short-term volatility. Leveraged liquidation scale significantly contracted compared to previous peaks, indicating high-risk positions partially cleared, market enters relatively healthy adjustment phase. Technically BTC found support near 63000 USD, ETH boosted by Vitalik Buterin's latest "Lean Ethereum" roadmap news. Overall trend neutral to bullish, but BTC more robust relative to ETH, latter may gain extra attention due to protocol long-term upgrade narrative. Institutional consensus believes if tonight's minutes do not release strong hawkish signals, risk assets including crypto有望 continue rebound; otherwise need to guard against short-term pullback pressure. Macro environment remains main driver, ETF capital flows and leverage health are key short-term observation indicators.
US Stock Index Performance
- Dow Jones: 52925.15 (-0.25%), continuous pullback from high levels
- S&P 500: 7503.85 (-0.45%), tech weights drag obviously
- Nasdaq: 25818.69 (-1.16%), semiconductor sector leads decline
Tech Giants Dynamics
- NVDA: 195.55 USD (+0.37%)
- AAPL: 312.80 USD (+1.35%)
- MSFT: 386.74 USD (-0.96%)
- GOOGL: 366.46 USD (+1.82%)
- AMZN: 244.16 USD (+0.61%)
- META: 600.29 USD (+2.98%)
- TSLA: 419.77 USD (+6.69%)
Performance Summary and Driver Analysis: Tech giants overall followed Nasdaq pullback, sector differentiation characteristics prominent. Semiconductor and AI related stocks (MU, AMD, etc.) led declines, mainly due to market doubts on hyperscaler AI capex sustainability and shock from news of China DeepSeek and other local AI chip progress; NVDA relatively resistant to fall, closed slightly up. Traditional mega cap such as AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL fell slightly, reflecting growth stocks under pressure in high yield and policy uncertain environment. TSLA larger decline may be related to company specific events and macro risk appetite decline. M&A highlights (CRNX acquired by Vertex) provided sentiment support for biotech, but failed to reverse overall weakness of大盘 tech stocks. Institutional views emphasize AI theme short-term faces valuation digestion pressure, needs more actual adoption data and earnings realization support; under dual variables of geopolitics and Fed minutes, market short-term cautious, suggest focusing on fundamental strong, cash flow robust individual stock differentiation opportunities.
Sector Movement Observation
Biotech Sector Surged (CRNX drove significant sector movement)
- Representative Stocks: CRNX +98.7%
- Drivers: Vertex Pharmaceuticals announced acquisition of CRNX at approx 85 USD/share, total value approx 8.8-10 billion USD, transaction expected to complete Q3 2026. Market views this as signal of biotech M&A wave restart, CRNX received huge premium, driving sector sentiment significant improvement.
Semiconductor Sector Significant Pullback
- Representative Stocks: AMD -6.5%, MU -4.7%, INTC -9.7%
- Drivers: Investors worry about rationality of AI infrastructure capex too fast growth, simultaneously China DeepSeek and other local AI chip progress news triggered competition concerns, sector valuation under obvious pressure. NVDA slight resistance to fall failed to reverse overall weakness.
III. In-depth US Stock Interpretation
1. Crinetics Pharmaceuticals (CRNX) - Vertex Acquisition Core Event
Event Overview: July 7, Vertex Pharmaceuticals announced acquisition of Crinetics Pharmaceuticals (CRNX) at approx 85 USD/share, total value approx 8.8-10 billion USD cash. Transaction expected to complete Q3 2026. After news announcement, CRNX stock price surged nearly 99% in pre-market and after-hours trading, becoming one of the brightest stocks in US stock market that day. CRNX focuses on endocrine and rare disease fields, its core pipeline and Vertex existing commercialization capabilities exist obvious synergy potential. Market Interpretation: Institutions generally believe this transaction will build "fifth major commercial pillar" for Vertex, significantly expanding its commercialization layout in rare disease and endocrine disease fields, consistent with Vertex long-term focus on specialty drug strategy. Analysts point out acquisition price reflects recognition of CRNX pipeline value, simultaneously reflects current biotech M&A market activity on quality assets. Vertex stock price fell slightly, mainly reflecting integration costs and short-term dilution concerns, but long-term synergy effects interpreted positively by market. Investment Implications: CRNX shareholders already obtained rich returns through premium, suggest continuing to watch transaction closing progress and regulatory approval; for Vertex, this move may open new round of external growth window, worth tracking its subsequent pipeline integration and performance contribution.
2. Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) - Integration Outlook After Strategic M&A
Event Overview: As acquirer, Vertex stock price fell slightly approx 0.2% after announcing acquisition of CRNX. Transaction will add endocrine and rare disease pipelines for Vertex, expected to significantly broaden its commercialized product matrix. Market Interpretation: Wall Street analysts mostly gave positive evaluations, believing CRNX pipeline and Vertex existing capabilities highly complementary, helps build more balanced revenue structure, reduce dependence on single product. Some institutions raised VRTX long-term target price, emphasizing "fifth pillar" strategic significance. But short-term market holds wait-and-see attitude on integration execution capability and potential R&D investment. Investment Implications: VRTX suitable for long-term allocation investors, watch first performance guidance after Q3 transaction completion; M&A landing may become its 2026-2027 growth new engine.
3. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - Sector Representative Under AI Capex Doubts
Event Overview: July 7, AMD and other semiconductor stocks pulled back significantly, AMD single day decline over 6%, dragging Nasdaq performance. Market worries about hyperscaler AI capex growth slowdown and China local AI chip competition intensification. Market Interpretation: Although Nvidia closed slightly up, sector overall under pressure reflects cautious revaluation of AI theme in high valuation environment. Institutional views believe AMD still competitive in data center and AI accelerator card fields, but short-term needs more orders and gross margin data to verify growth sustainability. China DeepSeek and other progress viewed as long-term competition signal, rather than immediate threat. Investment Implications: AMD suitable for watching Q2 earnings and AI related product updates, suggest combining with NVDA and other leaders for portfolio allocation, control single sector exposure.
IV. Market & Project Dynamics
1. US New Hampshire Business Finance Authority (BFA) scheduled to hold public hearing on issuing 100 million USD Bitcoin-backed bonds on Wednesday. The plan was approved by BFA in November 2025, needs final approval from Governor and five-person Executive Council. Bonds collateralized by private borrower CleanSpark, no recourse to state funds or taxpayers. Moody's gave the bond Ba2 preliminary rating (speculative grade) in March.
2. US launched new air strikes on Iran, and revoked an exemption order allowing it to sell oil globally, after frequent ship attack incidents in Hormuz Strait, this move further endangers peace agreement between both sides.
3. June on-chain tokenized stock trading volume reached 3.86 billion USD, month-over-month growth 145%, creating historical high, mainly driven by SpaceX IPO. SpaceX completed largest scale IPO in history in June (approx 75 billion USD), its tokenized stock trading volume reached 1.19 billion USD, accounting for 31% of total tokenized stock trading volume that month.
4. Jack Mallers' Strike launched new Bitcoin mortgage product, borrowers can avoid forced liquidation regardless of Bitcoin price falling to what level under premise of continuous repayment. Strike founder Mallers stated: "No margin call, no price liquidation, no matter how much Bitcoin falls, your Bitcoin will not be moved."
5. According to Bloomberg, quantum computing is seen as a new threat potentially capable of cracking cryptography algorithms of Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Quantum computers expected to far exceed traditional computers in decrypting complex math problems, theoretically can derive private keys from public keys, thereby stealing on-chain assets. Early address formats and wallets using repeated addresses have highest risk, Galaxy Digital research estimates approx 34% circulating Bitcoin, value approx 470 billion USD, may become quantum attack targets in future.
V. Today's Market Calendar
Data Release Schedule
Time Country/Region Data Name Market Attention
Important Event Preview
July 8 (Wednesday)
- US May Wholesale Sales MoM released at 22:00, US EIA Crude Oil Inventories for week ending July 3 released at 22:30.
July 9 (Thursday)
- Fed June Meeting Minutes released at 02:00, discussing rate path and inflation response; ★★★★★
- New York Fed President Williams speaks at 21:00;
- US Initial Jobless Claims for week ending July 4 released at 20:30.
July 10 (Friday)
- Dallas Fed President Logan speaks at 01:30;
- SK Hynix ADR tentatively lists on Nasdaq July 10 ★★★★
*This week's US stock core theme revolves around Fed June Meeting Minutes, Fed officials speeches, SpaceX included in Nasdaq 100, expected market volatility intensifies.
Institution Views
Combining latest views from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and other investment banks: Middle East geopolitical escalation is current main disturbance variable, oil price rise may form upward pressure on US inflation through energy channels, complicating new Fed Chair Warsh's policy tasks. Warsh emphasized data dependence and framework review after taking office, June minutes may continue hawkish tone but not overly aggressive, market needs to guard against "higher for longer" rate expectations pressure on growth stocks and risk assets. Stock market short-term faces geopolitical premium and AI valuation double test, but biotech M&A wave and crypto ETF continuous inflows provide structural support. Precious metals under pressure short-term in strong USD and high yield environment, crude oil dominated by risk premium prone to pullback after overshooting. Crypto market shows strong resilience, institutions believe if minutes signals neutral to dovish, BTC and ETH有望 continue rebound; otherwise need to watch 63000 USD key support. Overall suggest short-term keep cautious, prioritize allocating cash flow robust, fundamentals clear quality assets, wait for clear direction after minutes landing.
Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, manual verification only for publication, not as any investment advice. Data in text inevitably exists deviations, please refer to market instant data为准.
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
