US Stock Market Trends (June 25): Micron Surges Over 13% After Hours; Qualcomm Secures Order from Meta, Chip Stocks Reverse Three-Day Decline
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US Stock Market Trends (June 25): Micron Surges Over 13% After Hours; Qualcomm Secures Order from Meta, Chip Stocks Reverse Three-Day Decline
The true direction will only become clear after the PCE is released.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy: Tide Research
During Wednesday’s trading session, the S&P 500 posted three consecutive daily losses; London gold fell below $4,000 per ounce; WTI crude oil dropped below $70 per barrel; and Bitcoin slid below $60,000. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index hit a 13-month high. Commodities, crypto assets, and equities all came under simultaneous pressure. However, Micron Technology delivered an explosive earnings report after market close, sending its stock up over 13% in after-hours trading. On the same day, Qualcomm announced its entry into the AI data center market, also gaining over 10% post-market. Together, these two developments shifted Thursday’s pricing narrative—from “Has AI demand ended?” back to “Can chips lead a rebound and recapture lost ground?”
Market Performance
The S&P 500 declined 0.10% to 7,358.22; the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.43% to 25,476.64; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.35% to 51,848.90; and the Russell 2000 gained 0.37% to 2,986.63. Technology and communication services dragged down the Nasdaq, while the Dow and small-cap stocks were supported by non-tech sectors. The VIX closed at 18.63, down 4.41% from the previous day.
Micron closed at $1048.51 and surged over 13% after-hours following its earnings release; SanDisk and Western Digital both rose in tandem after-hours. Qualcomm fell 3.3% during regular trading but jumped over 10% after-hours. SpaceX declined approximately 1% to $154.54—down more than 31% cumulatively from its all-time high of $225.64 since listing.
Commodities also faced broad-based pressure. WTI crude oil dropped 4.6% to $69.87—the lowest since March 2—while Brent crude fell 4.1% to $73.65. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined 9 basis points to 4.407%, reverting to levels seen just before the Fed’s hawkish dot plot released last week; the 2-year yield stood at 4.152%. Bitcoin plunged 5.4% intraday to $59,023—the lowest since October 2024. London gold breached $4,000 per ounce for the first time in seven months. The U.S. Dollar Index reached a 13-month high.
Macroeconomic & Forward-Looking Analysis
Micron’s third fiscal quarter revenue totaled $41.46 billion, up 346% year-on-year; non-GAAP EPS came in at $25.11, with gross margin at 84.9%—both significantly exceeding expectations. Core data center revenue reached $11.5 billion—nearly 70% above consensus—directly addressing the market’s biggest concern over the past three days: whether AI memory demand can sustain momentum. For the fourth fiscal quarter, Micron guided to mid-point revenue of $50 billion and EPS of ~$31—16% and 22% above consensus, respectively. Micron’s CEO explicitly stated that HBM supply constraints will persist beyond 2027, and 16 long-term agreements have already locked in $22 billion in forward revenue.
At Qualcomm’s Investor Day, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg confirmed via video that Qualcomm will serve as Meta’s data center CPU supplier; Microsoft Azure announced plans to deploy Qualcomm’s HBC chips. Qualcomm raised its non-phone business revenue guidance for fiscal year 2029 from $22 billion to $40 billion—a 91% increase. This company—long reliant on smartphone chip sales—has demonstrated that its foray into AI data centers is not mere narrative, but backed by real orders from Meta and Microsoft.
Today’s most critical pricing variable is May’s PCE report. Market consensus expects core PCE inflation to rise from 3.3% to 3.4% year-on-year. If the data again prints hot, a September rate hike would shift from a probability to a near-certainty, lending empirical support to Waller’s hawkish path—and Micron’s after-hours rally could be directly offset by rising rate expectations. Yet WTI’s break below $70 has already pulled the 10-year yield down 9 bps; if PCE softens amid energy deflation, the market’s re-pricing of rate-cut expectations could accelerate faster than anyone anticipates. Today, PCE and Micron’s earnings report are being graded side-by-side.
The fundamental driver behind oil’s break below $70 is the de facto reopening of the Strait of Hormuz: stranded tankers in the Gulf have begun departing en masse, restoring supply expectations and erasing geopolitical risk premiums within weeks.
Tide Research Perspective
Wednesday’s intraday price action signaled one thing to the market: the prior three days’ selloff wasn’t just about chips—it reflected a broader loss of confidence in the entire AI infrastructure narrative. Gold, oil, and Bitcoin all broke key technical levels simultaneously, indicating this selling pressure isn’t isolated risk, but a systemic hedge against the confluence of high valuations, high interest rates, and high leverage.
Micron’s earnings report altered the most critical link in this logic chain. Its $11.5 billion in data center revenue—versus $6.8 billion expected—is a wide enough gap to rule out seasonal noise; demand is demonstrably accelerating. Fears sparked by rumors of SK Hynix production cuts were directly refuted by Micron’s own order book. Qualcomm securing CPU contracts from Meta and Microsoft confirms that the semiconductor ecosystem beyond NVIDIA is also absorbing spillover AI capital expenditures. Taken together, these developments give bulls a clear, tangible support thesis today.
Yet PCE remains the hard constraint. If PCE runs hotter than expected, rate-hike expectations will overwhelm sentiment driven by earnings, and after-hours gains may easily be erased by rate-driven headwinds during regular trading. The true direction won’t become clear until the PCE data is released.
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