ARK’s SpaceX IPO Investment Guide: $1.75 Trillion Valuation, 95x P/S Ratio—Where Is the Money Going?
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ARK’s SpaceX IPO Investment Guide: $1.75 Trillion Valuation, 95x P/S Ratio—Where Is the Money Going?
ARK’s research suggests that the $1.75 trillion IPO target is grounded in credible growth trajectories across SpaceX’s core business segments, and the structural advantages underpinning these trajectories are enduring.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: ARK Invest
Translation & Editing: TechFlow
TechFlow Intro: On April 1, SpaceX confidentially filed its IPO registration with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and up to $75 billion in proceeds—potentially listing on the Nasdaq in June 2026. This would be the largest IPO in capital markets history.
As one of SpaceX’s largest venture capital shareholders, ARK Invest has published this comprehensive investment guide, addressing investors’ most pressing questions—from valuation logic and business breakdown to fund positioning strategy.
Full Text:
On April 1, 2026, SpaceX confidentially submitted a draft registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), taking its first formal step toward going public. This will be the largest initial public offering (IPO) in capital markets history. The company targets a $1.75 trillion valuation, with potential proceeds of up to $75 billion, and aims for a Nasdaq listing as early as June 2026.
For investors in the ARK Venture Fund, this news comes as no surprise. SpaceX has long been the fund’s largest holding, representing 17.02% of the fund’s net assets as of March 31, 2026. ARK began building and refining its investment thesis when SpaceX was still an early-stage venture investment—and is now well-prepared for the flood of investor questions arriving in its inbox.
This guide answers the most critical among them.
What exactly did SpaceX file—and what happens next?
SpaceX’s confidential filing allows the company to submit its financial data to the SEC for review before any public disclosure. Under SEC rules, the public version of the S-1 registration statement must be released at least 15 days before the company begins marketing its shares to investors. This prospectus will be the first window into SpaceX’s full financial picture—including revenue figures, margin structure, accounting treatment of the February 2026 xAI merger, defense contract disclosures, and the governance framework determining how much control Elon Musk will retain post-IPO.
This IPO carries the internal codename “Project Apex” and is being underwritten by a massive syndicate of at least 21 banks. A June 2026 Nasdaq listing would make SpaceX the first of Bloomberg’s so-called “Super IPO Triple Crown”—ahead of OpenAI and Anthropic—and would shatter Saudi Aramco’s $29 billion 2019 IPO record by nearly threefold.
Is the $1.75 trillion valuation justified?
ARK’s research was designed precisely to answer this question. The most rigorous answer is: this valuation reflects a specific set of forward-looking assumptions—not current reality.
Applying the $1.75 trillion valuation to an estimated $18.5 billion in 2025 revenue yields a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of approximately 95x at the IPO price. No publicly traded company of comparable scale trades at such a multiple. This valuation expresses investor conviction about SpaceX’s future configuration—and understanding it requires breaking down each business segment.
Starlink is the financial engine. SpaceX’s satellite internet service had surpassed 10 million global active users by early 2026, with 2026 revenue projected to exceed $20 billion. ARK’s research previously identified Starlink as the world’s fastest-growing telecom network by both users and revenue—a judgment that, in hindsight, proved conservative. According to ARK’s analysis, the annual revenue opportunity from scaling the satellite connectivity market alone could approach $160 billion, with Starlink structurally capturing a disproportionately large share.
Launch services remain the foundation. In 2025, SpaceX executed 165 orbital launches, deploying roughly 85% of all spacecraft launched globally. ARK’s research shows that since 2008, the company has reduced launch costs by approximately 95%—from ~$15,600 per kilogram to under $1,000 per kilogram on Falcon 9. Per ARK’s research, fully reusable Starship targets launch costs below $100 per kilogram—another order-of-magnitude reduction that would unlock entirely new markets not yet in existence.
The xAI merger and orbital computing represent the most forward-looking dimension of the valuation. The February 2026 merger vertically integrates launch, communications, and AI model infrastructure under a single entity. ARK’s research suggests that with launch costs below $100 per kilogram, orbital data center compute costs could be ~25% lower than terrestrial alternatives—while avoiding grid interconnection latency, permitting friction, and electricity scarcity. Musk has stated the company’s goal is to launch 100 gigawatts of AI compute annually. This thesis remains in its early stages—but it is precisely this strategic integration that grants the merged entity a premium unattainable through simple sum-of-the-parts modeling.
ARK’s research concludes that the $1.75 trillion IPO target rests on credible growth trajectories across SpaceX’s core business segments—and that the structural advantages underpinning those trajectories are durable. Starlink’s user growth curve continues to outpace expectations. Launch cost reductions follow a predictable path consistent with Wright’s Law. The xAI merger adds a strategic dimension to the platform—one no comparable public company has attempted to replicate. The public S-1 will provide financial transparency, enabling investors to rigorously test these assumptions—and ARK believes the fundamentals can withstand such scrutiny.
Can Elon Musk achieve his goals?
ARK’s investment framework rests on a simple premise: bold technological visions merit serious attention when supported by demonstrable cost-curve declines and accelerating adoption—even if consensus skepticism prevails.
By this standard, SpaceX’s track record commands respect. Musk’s vision of fully reusable rockets was once dismissed by the traditional aerospace industry as impractical—yet SpaceX delivered. His ambition to build a global satellite internet for billions underserved by terrestrial networks was deemed financially unviable—yet Starlink proved otherwise. The company has already deployed over 10,000 Starlink satellites in low Earth orbit, serves more than 10 million users, and achieved cash-flow breakeven in 2023.
More ambitious goals—including lunar factories and a network of one million orbital data centers—remain distant from proof of concept. But ARK’s research does not require every objective to be realized to support the investment case. Continued execution along current trajectories across existing business segments is already sufficient to sustain an attractive investment thesis. The embedded option value within those more ambitious goals represents upside not yet captured in ARK’s current valuation model—a component currently under revision.
In ARK’s view, Musk’s goals are aggressive by any historical standard—and SpaceX has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to compress skeptics’ timelines. This is no guarantee—but ARK considers this historical record itself a meaningful data point.
Why would investors want exposure to SpaceX *before* the IPO?
This may be the most important question for investors evaluating the ARK Venture Fund—and the answer operates on several levels.
The value-creation window has shifted earlier. Private companies are going public at increasingly mature ages: the median age of U.S. IPOs reached 12 years in 2025, up from just 5 years in 1999. Today’s most compelling companies generate immense value while still private. Investors who wait until public listing may have already missed the most significant appreciation phase.
The IPO price ≠ most investors’ entry price. When a company of SpaceX’s scale goes public, allocation priority goes to institutional investors. Retail investors unable to participate directly in the IPO will buy shares on the open market—at prices determined by day-one supply and demand, which often significantly exceed the IPO price. Historical experience shows that high-profile, high-valuation IPOs frequently experience substantial volatility after listing before settling into longer-term pricing levels.
ARK Venture Fund investors gain VC-grade access. The ARK Venture Fund holds SpaceX via direct equity ownership—not through secondary-market intermediaries, special-purpose vehicles (SPVs), or structured products that layer on fees and valuation premiums. ARK Venture Fund investors have enjoyed continuous exposure as SpaceX’s valuation rose from $350 billion (2024), to $800 billion (2025), to $1.25 trillion post-merger, and now to the current $1.75 trillion IPO target. This entire value-creation trajectory unfolded exclusively in the private markets—the precise outcome for which the ARK Venture Fund was designed.
What happens to the ARK Venture Fund’s SpaceX position after the IPO?
ARK anticipated this scenario—and its implications for investors—when designing the venture fund.
The ARK Venture Fund is an evergreen crossover fund, structured to hold positions across a company’s full lifecycle—from early- and late-stage private development through IPO and beyond. SpaceX’s IPO is not a “problem” the fund must “manage”; the investment vehicle itself was built for this purpose.
After SpaceX completes its IPO, the fund’s position may be subject to standard lock-up restrictions, during which ARK’s SpaceX shares cannot be sold. During the lock-up period, new capital flowing into the ARK Venture Fund will be deployed into other private companies, accelerating rebalancing toward the fund’s target of ~80% private exposure.
Upon expiration of the lock-up period, the fund will have full flexibility to manage its SpaceX position—including opportunistically reducing exposure and redeploying proceeds into the next generation of private innovators across ARK’s five core technology platforms (artificial intelligence, robotics, energy storage, multi-omics, and blockchain technology).
The performance of any ARK Venture Fund holding—whether public or private—is reflected directly in the fund’s net asset value (NAV). SpaceX’s private-market valuation gains have already been reflected in real time in the fund’s NAV. Due to the fund’s crossover nature, this relationship remains unchanged at IPO. If SpaceX lists at a higher valuation, ARK Venture Fund investors benefit accordingly—and vice versa. For long-term investors, the IPO represents a pivotal liquidity event—and the ability to secure exposure ahead of public-market repricing is precisely the ARK Venture Fund’s structural advantage.
The ARK Venture Fund’s portfolio extends far beyond SpaceX. Current holdings include OpenAI, Anthropic, Neuralink, Databricks, Replit, Crusoe, Radiant, Boom, Lambda, Discord, and more than 50 other private companies. Should SpaceX’s IPO proceed, it will mark a major milestone—and simultaneously release capital and portfolio flexibility, enabling ARK to continue constructing what it views as the most compelling private innovation portfolio accessible to ordinary investors.
Important Information
SpaceX’s IPO filing remains a confidential registration statement draft at the time of this publication. Final valuation, timing, and structure have not yet been confirmed. The public S-1 registration statement has not yet been released. All referenced data reflect estimates reported in public sources and ARK’s independent research. This document does not constitute investment advice.
Holdings are subject to change at any time. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security.
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