$18.6 billion in BTC options expire on Friday; bulls need a 6% rise from $70,900 to turn the tide

Author: Marcel Pechman

Compiled by: TechFlow

TechFlow Intro: This Friday marks the March Bitcoin monthly options expiry, with a total notional value of $18.6 billion.

92% of call options are likely to expire worthless below $71,000, while signs of economic stress—such as redemption restrictions in the U.S. private credit market—are providing ammunition for bears.

Bulls need a 6% rally to reverse the situation—with only two days remaining.

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Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price has been compressed within a narrow range of $67,700 to $71,600, closely mirroring U.S. equity market reactions to the U.S.-Israel–Iran conflict. Traders are pinning hopes on this Friday’s $18.6 billion Bitcoin monthly options expiry, anticipating it could catalyze a bullish breakout above $75,000.

Chart: S&P 500 Index Futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right)

Source: TradingView

March Bitcoin call options dominate total open interest at $11.2 billion, while puts lag by 34%, at $7.4 billion. Yet this apparent advantage is largely meaningless—Bitcoin has failed to sustain levels above $74,000 for the past seven weeks. WTI crude oil prices have remained persistently above $90, fueling investor concerns about ongoing inflationary pressure.

Economic Uncertainty Empowers Bears Ahead of Quarterly Options Expiry

Early signals of cracks in the U.S. economy have already emerged: private credit funds have imposed redemption restrictions amid concerns over deteriorating loan quality. According to CNBC, this $3 trillion industry has recently come under scrutiny, prompting major asset managers—including Ares Management, Apollo Global Management, Blue Owl Capital, and Cliffwater—to suspend or restrict redemptions.

This socioeconomic uncertainty may be precisely what bears need heading into Bitcoin’s quarterly options expiry. Analysts are assessing the forces that could drive Bitcoin’s price before Friday’s expiry at 08:00 UTC, based on strike price concentrations in call and put options.

Deribit holds an overwhelming 76% market share, with $14.1 billion in open interest; OKX ranks second with 7.1%, followed by CME at 6.6%. Although call demand is higher, long positions on Deribit are excessively aggressive—most are concentrated at strike prices of $90,000 and above.

Chart: Deribit March 27 Bitcoin Call Options (USD-denominated) Open Interest

Source: Deribit

Only $2 billion worth of call options on Deribit are struck below $78,000—meaning 77% of calls may expire worthless this Friday. If Bitcoin expires at $71,000, 92% of call positions will expire entirely worthless—a result bulls clearly did not anticipate.

Some of these positions were likely established in February, when Bitcoin was still trading above $86,000—explaining why such a large share of open interest is concentrated far above current price levels.

Chart: Deribit March 27 Bitcoin Put Options (USD-denominated) Open Interest

Source: Deribit

Puts struck at $66,000 and above on Deribit total $2.2 billion—meaning 40% of put positions retain intrinsic value at Friday’s expiry. Thus, puts hold a slight edge at first glance—but a more granular analysis is required to understand how price movement affects final outcomes.

Below are four possible outcomes for Deribit’s BTC options expiry this Friday, based on current price action:

• $65,000–$69,000: Puts net dominant by $1.8 billion
• $69,001–$72,000: Puts net dominant by $950 million
• $72,001–$75,000: Puts net dominant by $430 million
• $75,001–$78,000: Calls net dominant by $790 million

In summary: Bitcoin bulls need a 6% rally from the current price of $70,900 to reverse the outcome of the March options expiry.