Bitcoin Breaks $100,000! Where Will U.S. Crypto-Friendly Policies Take the Market?

出品｜OKG Research
作者｜Hedy Bi, Jason Jiang

Trump has not yet officially taken office, but the crypto market is already celebrating in advance, pricing in policy developments. This morning, following Trump's formal nomination of Paul Atkins as SEC Chair, Bitcoin surged past $100,000. Since Trump’s election victory, Bitcoin has risen from $68,000 on November 5 to $100,000—delivering a 47% return in just one month. In this article, the authors will analyze from the perspective of U.S. crypto policy how regulatory changes are reshaping the market landscape and identify promising sectors under this new paradigm.

 "Hard and Brutal" Crypto Regulation Shifts Toward Openness and Friendliness 

During his campaign, Trump made ten crypto-friendly commitments, including establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve. His nominee for SEC Chair, Paul Atkins, is known for his favorable stance toward cryptocurrencies, advocating reduced regulation to support market innovation. Today, Trump emphasized that Paul "understands that crypto assets and other innovations are crucial to making America greater than ever before, and believes in the promise of strong, innovative capital markets." Atkins has previously criticized the SEC’s massive fines for harming shareholder interests, promoted flexible regulatory approaches, and served as co-chair of the Token Alliance. By appointing Atkins—a seasoned advocate for the crypto industry—to lead the SEC, Trump aims to transform an agency that spent the past year primarily penalizing the crypto sector, thereby embedding the principle of "financial freedom" into U.S. financial regulation.

Moreover, other members of Trump’s team provide strong backing for specialized crypto financial regulation: over 60% of his cabinet nominees have publicly stated they own Bitcoin, support the development of crypto finance, or indirectly endorse the growth of crypto assets.

Beyond Trump’s campaign promises and earlier proposals like the FIT 21 Act (Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century), recent events such as the Tornado Cash case also signal a shift toward a more open and friendly U.S. crypto regulatory environment. At the end of November, the U.S. Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the Treasury Department’s sanctions on Tornado Cash’s immutable smart contracts were illegal, stating these contracts do not meet the legal definition of "property." This ruling provides significant legal support for smart contract legitimacy, reducing direct conflicts between developers and users and traditional legal frameworks, thus promoting a more inclusive, free, and open financial ecosystem—and directly benefiting the flourishing of decentralized finance (DeFi).

 "America First" Industrial and Financial Capital Demand Greater Freedom 

Financial freedom not only opens up greater space for the crypto market but also signals a profound market integration brewing between crypto assets and traditional financial assets (TradFi). As digital society evolves, value creation is accelerating under the influence of future technologies like artificial intelligence (AI). Zeng Ming, former chief strategist at Alibaba, pointed out that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will become the core technological breakthrough in productivity and, when closely integrated with crypto assets, will spawn numerous new types of digital assets.

As a value network technology connecting digital and real-world societies, blockchain will play a key role in this transformation. Under the "America First" agenda, Trump has proposed an AI-focused "Manhattan Project," aiming to elevate AI to a national strategic level and accelerate its industrialization.

Beyond the digital future driven by AI, which cannot bypass crypto assets, Standard Chartered Bank has also stated that nearly any real-world asset can be tokenized, projecting global demand for tokenized assets to reach $30 trillion by 2034. Whether it's the future development of digital society requiring crypto assets or real-world asset circulation needing tokenization, the convergence of crypto and traditional finance holds potential far exceeding both the 1930s "Great Merger Era" and the 2000 "Internet Merger Era"—which generated $600 billion and $3 trillion in market scale, respectively.

This integration process is now unstoppable. From the advancement of crypto asset ETFs to emerging sectors represented by RWA (Real World Assets), stablecoins alone have already created a market cap exceeding $200 billion. As crypto technology continues to penetrate deeper, the "cryptoization" of the entire financial market has begun, poised to reshape the global financial landscape and foster a more open and integrated capital ecosystem.

How the Top 3 Crypto "Promises" Will Shape the Market

Whether announcing a strategic Bitcoin reserve or nominating a crypto-friendly SEC chair, Trump’s election appears to herald the most favorable regulatory environment in crypto history, fueling Bitcoin’s recent rally. But in the medium to long term, what truly drives sustained progress in the crypto industry isn't Bitcoin’s price—it’s whether Trump can turn these verbal commitments into concrete legislative actions that expand space for the crypto market. If Trump leverages his strong party leadership and the Republican sweep in both congressional chambers to push forward key legislation—particularly the following three bills—he could usher in a transformative era for the crypto industry.

• FIT 21 Bill Likely to Be Prioritized, Driving DeFi Innovation "Repatriation" to the U.S.

The FIT 21 Act may be among the first bills prioritized after Trump takes office. This legislation, hailed as "the most important crypto bill to date," would clearly define when a cryptocurrency qualifies as a commodity versus a security, ending the long-standing regulatory tug-of-war between the SEC and CFTC. The U.S. House previously passed the bill by a wide margin and sent it to the Senate, which took no decisive action. However, with Trump’s return, market expectations are rising for accelerated progress.

Once enacted, FIT 21 will lead to more compliant trading platforms and publicly listed crypto firms. Clear classification standards will enrich the range of tradable tokens and create new opportunities for spot ETFs and other crypto financial products. One reason Ethereum ETF applications previously struggled was due to classification ambiguity—the SEC long considered post-PoS Ethereum more akin to a security. Only after the SEC and Wall Street found a "compromise"—clarifying that non-staking Ethereum ETFs aren’t securities—did the process move forward. With the bill in place, cryptocurrencies clearly classified as "digital commodities" could more easily launch spot ETFs and related financial products under certain conditions. We may see spot ETFs for Solana (SoL), XRP, HBAR, LTC, and others next year.

Multiple institutions have submitted Solana ETF applications

FIT 21 will also boost innovation in decentralized applications, especially within the DeFi sector. The bill states that tokens deemed decentralized and functional will be treated as digital commodities, exempt from SEC oversight. Projects meeting decentralization thresholds will also receive grace periods, incentivizing more DeFi protocols to evolve toward greater decentralization. The bill further mandates the SEC and CFTC to study DeFi development, assess its impact on traditional finance, and explore regulatory strategies. Combined with transition periods, this will attract more DeFi projects to "repatriate" to the U.S.

Additionally, supportive policies and rate-cut expectations will drive more traditional capital into DeFi seeking higher yields, fueling further innovation. A clear trend is DeFi expanding collateral options, bringing more off-chain liquidity on-chain. This will deepen integration between DeFi and RWA, enabling tokenized assets like U.S. Treasuries and real estate to be used as collateral or in lending, enhancing composability and expanding DeFi’s influence beyond blockchain. The RWA sector will also benefit from this fusion, generating more attractive returns and accelerating two-way expansion between on-chain and off-chain systems.

The role of DeFi in the Bitcoin ecosystem should not be overlooked. While ETFs help Bitcoin penetrate off-chain markets, its on-chain ecosystem is also showing new potential. Given Bitcoin’s base of long-term holders and lower market float due to spot ETFs, a new opportunity may emerge for Bitcoin lending. With the SEC likely to permit staking for Ethereum spot ETFs, staking projects within DeFi ecosystems could gain widespread attention.

• U.S. Stablecoin Legislation May Be Revived

In 2023, the House Committee on Financial Services passed the "Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act," but it failed to gain full House approval. In October this year, pro-crypto Senator Bill Hagerty reintroduced a similar draft. Combined with Trump’s pledge against a Fed-issued CBDC and FIT 21’s definition of permissioned payment stablecoins emphasizing licensing, stablecoin legislation may return to the agenda under a Trump administration.

Stablecoin regulation will directly affect dollar stablecoin issuers and payment providers. Smaller or algorithmic stablecoins may exit the market, while compliant ones like USDC gain larger share. As regulations clarify compliance requirements, traditional payment providers will accelerate adoption of regulated stablecoins, improving their availability and usability in daily transactions. Businesses and users will grow more confident using stablecoins not just for crypto trading but as supplements to existing payment systems. Stablecoins’ share in cross-border payments and settlements will keep rising, potentially matching or even surpassing players like Visa in user base and transaction volume.

Furthermore, whether earning yield directly through underlying assets (e.g., government bonds, money market funds) and distributing returns, or leveraging DeFi protocols for on-chain yield, various yield-bearing products based on compliant stablecoins will continue to emerge and gain user traction—but must avoid structuring mechanisms that make stablecoins resemble investment contracts.

• Repeal of SAB 121 Proposal Could Solve Crypto Custody Challenges

The growth of crypto financial products like spot ETFs, along with RWA, stablecoins, and DeFi, will increase demand for crypto custody services. This will pressure lawmakers to revive efforts to repeal SAB 121 (Staff Accounting Bulletin No. 121). Issued by the SEC in 2022, SAB 121 requires companies to record custodied crypto assets as liabilities, significantly increasing balance sheet leverage and negatively impacting financial health and credit ratings—discouraging firms from offering custody services.

Trump promised during his campaign to revoke this bulletin upon taking office. Repealing SAB 121 would directly reduce compliance burdens for crypto custodians, enabling banks and regulated institutions to enter the custody space more easily and attracting more institutional investors to the market. Due to SAB 121’s accounting rules, many banks and financial institutions had been cautious about crypto financial products like spot ETFs; repeal would simplify asset management. Stablecoin issuers and payment-related businesses would also benefit, especially those integrating with traditional finance. Repeal could create a more lenient regulatory environment, supporting the development of core functions like payments and settlement. The popular RWA narrative would gain further momentum, allowing traditional custodians to manage tokenized assets more flexibly and encouraging broader financial sector participation.

Undeniably, every crypto-friendly policy step in the Trump 2.0 era is profoundly reshaping the boundaries of the crypto market. From regulation to accounting standards, each seemingly minor change carries deep strategic implications. Paul Atkins’ nomination signals a loosening of crypto regulation, while institutional reforms at the asset level are equally critical. The upcoming FASB rule (ASU 2023-08), effective December 15, 2024, requires companies to account for held crypto assets at fair value. This means fluctuations in Bitcoin and other crypto holdings will directly impact corporate income statements, significantly affecting net income. This rule could incentivize more companies to include mainstream crypto assets on their balance sheets. Moreover, Microsoft convened a board meeting on December 10 to formally discuss adding Bitcoin to its corporate strategic reserves—an industry signal with high visibility.

As Bitcoin broke $100,000 today, OKX CEO Star remarked on X that this reflects the "power of vision and technology." The path bridging tradition and innovation is destined to reshape the new order of global capital markets.