TechFlow reports, July 9, Glassnode's latest weekly report pointed out that Bitcoin has continued to trade below the realized market mean and short-term holder cost basis over the past five months, remaining in a deep value zone, indicating that although the market bottoming process is progressing, it is not yet complete.
On-chain data shows that long-term holder loss realization accounts for 43% of the total realized value, with the recent daily average loss realization peak rising to $280 million, the highest level since December 2022, indicating that selling pressure has not significantly cooled down.
In terms of off-chain aspects, although capital outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have slowed compared to the June highs, overall net outflows persist, and the average daily trading volume is only $650 million to $950 million, approximately 80% lower than the peak in October 2025, reflecting that institutional demand has not yet recovered.
Regarding derivatives, market positions have shifted to cautiously bullish, but the option skew structure still shows investors are continuously pricing in downside risk. The report believes that to confirm the market enters a more constructive phase, it is still necessary to see further relief in long-term holder selling pressure, stabilization of ETF capital flows, and prices continuously reclaiming key cost zones.
