According to TechFlow, on July 07, BIT stated in its latest weekly market observation that Bitcoin recovered most of June's losses last week, reclaimed the 200-week moving average, and entered the key confirmation range of $63,000 to $66,000; Ethereum showed stronger weekly gains, indicating broader market participation in this rebound.
BIT pointed out that June non-farm payroll data was lower than expected, which was the main macro catalyst driving this rebound, reflecting that tightening policies are cooling down the economy. However, the June CPI data to be released on July 14 will be an important test before the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of July. If inflation data is weak, it may support Bitcoin to effectively break through $66,000; if data is strong, it may weaken current easing expectations.
In terms of capital flow, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded significant net inflows for the first time after 10 consecutive days of net outflows, but BIT believes a single-day improvement is not enough to confirm the trend, and sustained ETF capital inflows remain a key observation indicator. In terms of the derivatives market, institutional funds are more inclined to buy put options and sell call options, reflecting that they are mainly hedging rebound gains rather than actively betting on further breakthroughs; retail investors still tend to chase upward structures.
Additionally, Strategy disclosed the sale of 3,588 Bitcoins after the report was released to fulfill dividend obligations, a significant increase compared to the previous sale of only 32 Bitcoins. BIT believes this brings potential corporate treasury supply pressure to the market, and also makes the two confirmation signals of "sustained ETF inflows" and "high-volume breakthrough of $66,000" more important.
