TechFlow News, June 25: According to a post by Jiang Zhuo’er (@Jiangzhuoer2), CEO of Litecoin Pool (Litepool), MicroStrategy’s mNAV has fallen to 0.72—approaching the previous bull market’s low of 0.7 in May 2022. Coupled with market sentiment events such as STRC’s significant de-pegging, he judges that the current level represents the lowest mNAV zone of this cycle. He notes that mNAV typically bottoms approximately six months ahead of Bitcoin’s price bottom (mNAV bottomed in May 2022, while BTC did not reach its bottom of $15,476 until November of the same year).
Based on a four-year cyclical mathematical model (analogous to a bouncing ball whose amplitude gradually diminishes), he forecasts that this Bitcoin bear market will bottom between October and December 2026, with a bottom price range of $42,000–$44,000. Jiang Zhuo’er states that his recent trading strategy focuses primarily on selling spot Bitcoin and shorting BTC, and recommends a long-term arbitrage strategy involving going long on MSTR and short on BTC.
