TechFlow News, June 24: According to QCP Group’s latest macro-trend report, market attention is shifting from the “signing-related positive sentiment” surrounding multiple macro events toward execution risks that follow.
The U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has been formally signed. Brent crude oil prices have retreated below USD 80 per barrel, easing tail-risk concerns. However, transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz remains at only 14 vessels—far below normal levels—and a 60-day technical negotiation window has now opened. Market pricing is pivoting toward actual tanker flow volumes and progress on compliance with the Lebanon ceasefire.
The Federal Reserve unanimously held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, but signaled its intention to maintain higher rates for longer. The median dot-plot projection for 2026 was raised to 3.8% (up from 3.4%), with the range widened to 3.4%–4.4%; forward guidance was simultaneously removed. Core PCE inflation forecasts stand at 3.30%, while headline PCE is projected at 3.82%—both above target. Inflation—not growth—remains the primary constraint.
Following its IPO, SpaceX’s stock price declined from a peak of USD 211 to USD 155—a roughly 27% drop—yet remains 14.5% above its IPO price of USD 135. Market narrative has shifted from IPO momentum to AI financing logic: its USD 20 billion note issuance is intended to refinance an xAI bridge loan, while the ~USD 60 billion Anysphere/Cursor transaction converts equity into acquisition currency. SpaceX is now being integrated into the AI capital formation cycle.
In the crypto market, Strategy continues accumulating BTC, holding 847,363 coins—approximately 4% of total supply—with an average cost basis of USD 75,651. Spot prices currently sit about 15% below Strategy’s USD 64.1 billion cost benchmark. STRC preferred shares trade at USD 88.79—roughly 11% below par value. Funding math is tightening, yet as long as capital markets remain open, the accumulation engine will continue operating.
