Bitget UEX Daily Report | Iran Attacks US Military Base, Oil Prices Rebound; Memory Chips Continue to Plunge; Apple, Microsoft, Google, etc. Rise Steadily

1. Hot News

Fed Dynamics

Significant Market Divergence Before Decision, Rate Hike Expectations Heat Up

• Federal funds rate futures open interest surged to a historic high (reaching 967,000 contracts on Monday), reflecting significant divergence among traders regarding the policy path.
• CME data shows a 69.5% probability of holding rates steady in July, and a 30.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike; the cumulative probability of rate hikes by September is higher.
• Reuters survey shows analysts lowered gold price forecasts for the first time since the end of 2023, with the median expectation for mid-2026 dropping to 4509 USD/oz. Market Impact: Policy uncertainty boosts the USD and volatility, suppressing risk assets, while reinforcing pricing for sticky inflation and geopolitical risks.

International Commodities

Iran Attacks US Military Base, Oil Price Rebounds Significantly

• Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles at a US military base in Jordan, all of which were intercepted. This is the first missile attack by Iran on a regional US military base since the US suspended strikes last Friday.
• US Central Command confirmed the attack occurred at 5:45 PM ET on July 28, with US forces maintaining a high state of alert.
• Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister proposed negotiations with Oman regarding temporary routes in the Strait of Hormuz, insisting that sea lanes be fully controlled by Iran, otherwise threatening to keep them closed and restart the war. Market Impact: The collapse of the informal ceasefire boosts geopolitical risk premiums, WTI crude oil rebounds over 3%, short-term supply concerns reignite, simultaneously exacerbating the game between inflation and policy expectations.

2. Market Review

Commodities & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Approx. 4,015 USD/oz, -0.35%
• Spot Silver: Approx. 57.2 USD/oz, 0.11%
• WTI Crude Oil: Approx. 82.6 USD/barrel, +3.12%
• Brent Crude Oil: Approx. 81.2 USD/barrel, +4.31%
• US Dollar Index (DXY): Approx. 101.39, -0.02%

Driver Analysis: Iran's surprise attack broke previous ceasefire expectations, quickly boosting crude oil risk premiums, with WTI rebounding over 3%. Gold and silver faced pressure against the backdrop of rising oil prices and increased divergence before the Fed decision; analysts lowering mid-term gold price forecasts for the first time further suppressed precious metals. The relative strength of the USD reflects policy uncertainty. Asset correlation logic is clear: Geopolitical escalation → Oil price rise → Inflation concerns heat up → Fed hawkish probability rises. Short-term commodity volatility will highly depend on Hormuz negotiation progress and FOMC results.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: 63,962 USD (+0.93%)
• ETH: 1,917 USD (+2.31%)
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Approx. 2.28 trillion USD (+0.4%)
• Market Liquidations: 24h total liquidations approx. 372 million USD, long liquidations approx. 280 million USD
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Liquidation pressure near the current price (63,900) is relatively small, but the 64,200–65,000 USD range aggregates a large number of 50x, 100x short liquidation orders. Once this area is breached, it is easy to trigger a cascade of short stop-losses, pushing prices further upward. The cumulative short liquidation scale above is approx. 280 million USD, significantly higher than the approx. 230 million USD for longs below. Short-term market liquidation pressure still leans towards shorts, and the potential volatility space for upward price breakthroughs is slightly greater than for downward corrections.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC Spot ETF net outflow approx. 11.6 million USD on July 27, dynamic net inflow of 5.1 million USD today.

Driver Analysis: Geopolitical escalation and rising risk-off sentiment before the Fed decision led to general pressure on risk assets. BTC and ETH both retreated, with large-scale long liquidations indicating leveraged longs were cleared. Weak ETF fund flows further exacerbated selling pressure. The overall trend is weak, but oil price rebounds and FOMC results will become key short-term variables. ETH's relative weakness reflects the fragility of high-beta assets when risk appetite declines.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Closed at 52,747.32 points (+1.03%), benefiting from strong non-tech earnings
• S&P 500: Closed at 7,428.78 points (+0.21%), narrow gain
• Nasdaq: Closed at 24,876.91 points (-0.22%), semiconductors dragged significantly

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: 197.01 USD (+0.25%)
• AAPL: 340.08 USD (+0.94%)
• MSFT: 393.35 USD (+1.09%)
• GOOGL: 332.60 USD (+1.85%)
• AMZN: 230.86 USD (-0.23%)
• META: 593.41 USD (-0.08%)
• TSLA: 307.44 USD (-0.58%)

Performance Summary and Driver Analysis: Divergence within the tech sector intensified. Apple, Microsoft, Google, etc. rose steadily, with Apple's market cap previously surpassing Nvidia; while Micron, AMD plunged over 8%, Intel fell nearly 6%, dragging down the Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. AI application software partly strengthened (Workday up over 8%), but Palantir retreated. The overall pattern presents "non-tech and software relatively resilient, hardware and storage under continuous pressure," reflecting that the market's repricing of AI capital expenditure returns is still ongoing.

Sector Movement Observation

Storage Concepts Plummet Across the Board

• Representative Stocks: SanDisk down over 14%, Micron, Hynix related down nearly 9%, Seagate down over 8%
• Drivers: AI storage demand expectations cool, coupled with overall chip sell-off.

Optical Communication Weakens Collectively

• Representative Stocks: Corning down over 12%, Coherent down over 10%, Lumentum down over 8%
• Drivers: Following capital expenditure concerns and tech hardware sentiment.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Falls 4.49%

• Representative Stocks: AMD, Micron down over 8%, Applied Materials, Marvell down nearly 8%
• Drivers: AI hardware chain valuation and return doubts continue to ferment.

3. US Stock Individual Deep Dive

1. Seagate Technology (STX) - Earnings Significantly Beat Expectations, Few Bright Spots in Storage Hardware

Event Overview: Q4 revenue 3.65 billion USD (YoY +48%), adjusted EPS 5.71 USD, operating profit margin reached 44.6%, all three core indicators significantly higher than market expectations. The company simultaneously raised Q1 revenue guidance to 4.0-4.2 billion USD (market expectation approx. 3.79 billion USD). Stock price surged over 9% after hours following the earnings release. Market Interpretation: Against the backdrop of overall storage and semiconductor sectors under continuous pressure due to AI capital expenditure return doubts, Seagate, as an enterprise hard drive and storage solution provider, demonstrated strong actual demand fulfillment capabilities. Its earnings beat indicates that part of traditional and enterprise storage demand remains resilient and was not completely swallowed by AI expectation correction sentiment. Contrasting sharply with the significant pullback of storage stocks like SanDisk and Micron, it highlights the divergence between "performance fulfillers" and "expectation traders" within the sector. Investment Implications: Short-term performance support is clear, but need to continuously track subsequent order visibility and major customer capital expenditure trends to verify if demand is sustainable.

2. Micron Technology (MU) - Plunges Nearly 9%, Storage Sector Sentiment Continues to Deteriorate

Event Overview: Stock price fell nearly 9%, dragging down storage and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX fell 4.49%) together with SanDisk (down over 14%), AMD, etc. Market Interpretation: Market has deeper doubts about the sustainability of HBM and conventional storage price hike cycles. Previously, AI server demand expectations drove storage stocks up significantly, but recently funds have obviously withdrawn from high-valuation storage targets, reflecting investors' repricing of the "AI-driven demand linear growth" narrative. As an industry bellwether, Micron's decline amplified the overall pessimistic sentiment of the sector, also forming a sharp contrast with Seagate's earnings beat. Investment Implications: Short-term sentiment主导 characteristics are obvious, suggest closely monitoring major customer capital expenditure guidance, inventory levels, and price trends, avoid simply betting on long-term AI demand.

3. Apple (AAPL) - Steady Rise, Market Cap Advantage Further Consolidated

Event Overview: Stock price rose approx. 0.94% to 340.08 USD, market cap previously surpassed Nvidia to return to global first, and created a phased new high. Market Interpretation: In an environment where hardware and semiconductor sectors are generally under pressure, Apple demonstrates significant certainty premium. Investors prefer its steady cash flow, continuous growth of services business, and relatively cautious AI capital expenditure strategy (more inclined to lease computing power rather than large-scale self-construction). This "certainty first" preference makes Apple a capital safe haven in volatile markets, also reinforcing the market's repricing of "high-quality growth". Investment Implications: Certainty assets are favored in the current environment. This week's earnings will further test the growth quality of device and services businesses, as well as the commercialization progress of AI-related investments.

4. Nvidia (NVDA) - Small Rebound 0.25%, AI Hardware Sentiment Not Yet Repaired

Event Overview: Stock price rose slightly 0.25% to 197.01 USD, previously saw significant pullback due to AI infrastructure cost concerns and competitive pressure. Market Interpretation: Market is still digesting multiple doubts such as the return cycle of large-scale capital expenditures, financing structure (including potential large-scale support arrangements related to OpenAI), and intensified China competition. Although a small rebound occurred, the strength is limited, showing that capital's trust in the "AI infrastructure long-term prosperity" narrative has not yet recovered. Contrasting with Apple's market cap advantage consolidation, it further highlights the divergence between hardware and certainty assets. Investment Implications: Long-term AI computing demand logic remains unchanged, but short-term valuation and expenditure rhythm have entered a stricter scrutiny phase, volatility may continue to be higher than market average.

5. Corning (GLW) - Plunges Over 12%, Optical Communication Chain Under Obvious Pressure

Event Overview: Stock price fell over 12%, optical communication sector weakened collectively (Coherent down over 10%, Lumentum down over 8%). Market Interpretation: As an important supplier of optical communication and advanced materials, Corning is directly impacted by the cooling of AI data center capital expenditure expectations. Optical module and high-speed interconnect demand highly depends on the investment rhythm of cloud vendors and hyperscale customers. When the market has doubts about AI infrastructure returns, upstream materials and equipment links often reflect sentiment changes first. Its decline resonates with storage and chip sectors, reinforcing the signal that the hardware chain has overall entered an expectation correction phase. Investment Implications: Sector is highly related to AI infrastructure, short-term sentiment sensitive. Need to重点 track cloud vendors and equipment manufacturers' subsequent capital expenditure guidance visibility.

6. SK Hynix (SKHY ADR) - Operating Profit Surges 557% But Misses Expectations, ADR Under Pressure

Event Overview: Q2 operating profit increased 557% YoY to 60.5 trillion KRW (approx. 41.6 billion USD), hitting a historic high; revenue 79 trillion KRW. But both core data points were lower than market expectations (operating profit expectation approx. 64 trillion KRW, revenue expectation approx. 83.85 trillion KRW). The company stated that due to a higher proportion of HBM, it failed to fully benefit from this round of strong price hike cycle of conventional storage chips, and plans to significantly expand HBM4 capacity in the second half of 2026. Market Interpretation: Although absolute profit hit a record, "missing expectations" itself triggered market concerns that the AI storage boom may slow down. A higher HBM structure instead became a short-term drag, indicating investors focus more on marginal changes and expectation gaps rather than absolute growth. This result exacerbated the overall cautious sentiment of the storage sector, also contrasting with Seagate's beat performance, showing differentiation has appeared within the AI storage chain. Investment Implications: Long-term HBM and advanced storage demand still have support, but short-term need to observe if capacity expansion rhythm and customer demand can match. The combination of performance "high growth but miss" may continue to suppress valuation repair speed.

4. Market & Project Dynamics

1. Ethereum Layer2 network total locked value (TVL) has fallen back to approx. 5 billion USD, the lowest level since 2023, almost erasing the growth brought by the launch of L2s like Optimism, Arbitrum and ZKsync in 2024. Optimistic Rollups like Optimism, Base and Arbitrum still dominate TVL, totaling approx. 4.8 billion USD, accounting for 96% of the total.

2. Analysts state that if the Fed releases any dovish signals, it may be bullish for Bitcoin. Market divergence on whether the Fed will hike rates this Wednesday is significant—CME FedWatch data shows a 70% probability of holding rates steady, 30% probability of an unexpected 25 basis point hike. Block Scholes analyst Thahbib Rahman pointed out that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reducing the use of forward guidance has led to increased market uncertainty, this FOMC meeting is the most uncertain in many years.

3. SK Hynix stated, plans to significantly expand HBM4 capacity supply in the second half of 2026. Has signed long-term chip supply agreements (LTA) with 10 industry major customers; expects 2026 Q3 DRAM shipments to increase approx. 10% QoQ from Q2; expects 2026 Q3 NAND flash shipments to rise slightly QoQ from Q2, increase is low single digits (1%~4%); long-term supply agreements set differentiated pricing mechanisms, distinguishing pricing based on customer type and chip product characteristics, flattening storage price cyclical violent fluctuations; long-term supply agreements will significantly enhance enterprise mid-to-long-term order and demand side certainty.

4. According to Jin10 citing foreign media reports, US officials said Iran launched ballistic missiles at a US military base in Jordan, missiles were intercepted by Jordan. Notably, this attack is the first missile attack by Iran on US bases in the region since the US suspended attacks on Iran last Friday. US Central Command subsequently confirmed, at 5:45 PM ET today, Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles, attempting a surprise attack on US troops stationed in the Middle East. All Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted. US Central Command said US troops remain vigilant, in a high state of alert. Affected by the news, WTI crude oil continued to rise at the beginning of Wednesday's trading, intraday gain expanded to 4%.

5. Bitcoin mining firm and AI infrastructure company Ionic Digital surged over 25% on its first day of direct listing on Nasdaq, stock price close to 63 USD, implied valuation approx. 2.75 billion USD. The company was established in January 2024, acquired most mining assets in Celsius Network bankruptcy restructuring, including mining machines, infrastructure, approx. 195 million USD cash and 540 BTC.

6. SK Hynix (SKHY.O) announced earnings Wednesday, affected by tech giants increasing AI data center investment, driving strong demand for advanced storage chips, company Q2 operating profit surged 557% to 60.5 trillion KRW (approx. 41.62 billion USD), refreshing historic record, same period last year was 9.2 trillion KRW. However this number was lower than market expectation of 64 trillion KRW, mainly because its high-end storage chips (HBM) proportion is higher than competitors, instead failed to fully benefit from this round of strong price hike cycle of conventional storage chips. This exacerbated concerns that the AI boom driving semiconductor industry development may be slowing. SK Hynix revenue also missed expectations, earnings show, its Q2 revenue was 79 trillion KRW, market expectation was 84 trillion KRW. Affected by earnings, SK Hynix fell 9% in US stocks Tuesday after hours, once fell another 9% after hours, SanDisk (SNDK.O) and Micron Technology (MU.O) also followed down over 4%, erasing the boost brought by Seagate Technology (STX.O) earnings.

7. According to Cointelegraph reports, dragged by Asian chip stock plunge, US stock tech sector under pressure, after US stocks opened Tuesday Bitcoin once fell below 63,000 USD breaking key support level, creating nearly 10-day new low. Market data shows, Bitcoin price trend affected by global tech stock sell-off, Asian semiconductor sector plunge triggered risk asset chain reaction, and spread to US market.

5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Preview

July 29 (Wednesday)

★★★★★ Microsoft, Meta release earnings after hours (Market core focus on AI capital expenditure returns, cloud business growth rate and advertising recovery) ★★★★ Qualcomm, Arm, Robinhood release earnings after hours

July 30 (Thursday)

★★★★★ Fed announces interest rate decision, market expects to stand pat, Chair Warsh holds press conference after meeting; Focus on statements on subsequent interest rate path and whether to restart rate hikes in September; Current inflation pressure and tariff uncertainty coexist ★★★★★ US releases June Core PCE Price Index, Q2 Real GDP Annualized Quarter-over-Quarter Initial Value, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims ★★★★★ Apple, Amazon release earnings, test AI commercialization effectiveness ★★★★★ Samsung Electronics releases full Q2 earnings (Storage and AI Chips) ★★★ Coinbase, Strategy release earnings after hours

July 31 (Friday)

★★★★ Kioxia releases earnings (Conclusion of Japan-Korea Storage Three Giants) US releases July Chicago PMI, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Final Value

Institutional Views:

Analysts generally believe Iran's surprise attack broke ceasefire expectations, quickly boosting oil prices and exacerbating inflation concerns, making the Fed's policy path this week more uncertain. Federal funds futures holdings at record levels show market divergence is extremely large. Tech hardware and storage continue to be under pressure, reflecting repricing of AI capital expenditure returns is still deepening; while part of non-tech and software earnings provide support. Crypto market retreated amid declining risk appetite, long liquidations concentrated. Overall consensus is geopolitical and policy dual uncertainty will dominate short-term volatility, FOMC results and tech giant earnings will become key pricing anchors.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, manual verification only for publication, does not constitute any investment advice. Data in the text inevitably has deviations, please refer to market instant data为准.