Solana ETF Attracts $39 Million in a Week, Hitting a Two-Month High; Futures Open Interest Soars 30%, Traders Target $120

Author: Claude, TechFlow

TechFlow Intro: Solana spot ETFs recorded $39.23 million in net inflows last week—the strongest weekly performance since February. Bitwise’s BSOL accounted for 92% of the total. Meanwhile, Solana futures open interest surged 29.5% to $6.4 billion in the first two weeks of May, signaling synchronized buying pressure across both spot and derivatives markets.

A technical “Adam & Eve” bottom pattern has emerged, with a target price of $120. Concurrently, Alpenglow—the largest consensus upgrade in Solana’s history—launched on the community testnet on May 11. Co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko stated that mainnet deployment could occur as early as next quarter. Capital flows, derivatives activity, and on-chain fundamentals are all flashing bullish signals simultaneously.

SOL is undergoing a multi-dimensional signal convergence.

According to Cointelegraph’s May 11 report, Solana spot ETFs recorded $39.23 million in net inflows last week—the strongest weekly performance since February this year. Over the same seven-day period, SOL’s price rose ~15% to around $97, while futures open interest increased by nearly $1.5 billion within half a month.

The on-chain holder structure is also shifting quietly: traders and speculative capital gradually exited during the four-month consolidation phase, allowing strong hands to reassert control over supply. Any meaningful volume rebound following the sharp contraction in trading activity is now more likely to drive prices upward.

Signals from multiple independent data sources are lighting up simultaneously.

ETF Flows Reverse Six-Month Downtrend; Bitwise BSOL Captures 80% of Share

Per SoSoValue data, Solana spot ETFs recorded $39.23 million in net inflows last week, of which Bitwise’s staking-based ETF BSOL contributed $36 million—approximately 92%. Fidelity’s FSOL saw inflows of roughly $1.8 million. Since its launch, BSOL has accumulated ~$861 million in assets under management, representing 81% of the total ~$1.06 billion in cumulative net inflows across all SOL spot ETFs.

The significance of this figure becomes clearer when viewed over a longer timeframe. According to BeInCrypto, citing SoSoValue data, monthly Solana ETF inflows peaked at $419 million in November last year, then declined for six consecutive months: $148 million in December, $105 million in January, $63 million in February, $45.44 million in March, and just $39.93 million in April—the lowest monthly figure since product launch. Last week’s inflow alone nearly matched April’s entire monthly total; if this pace continues, it will mark the first reversal of the six-month downtrend.

As of press time, the combined net asset value (NAV) of all SOL spot ETFs stands at approximately $938 million, with SOL comprising ~1.82% of ETF NAV. Cumulative net inflows have surpassed $1 billion.

Futures Open Interest Surges 30% to $6.4 Billion in Half a Month; Spot Buying Also Intensifies

Derivatives market signals are equally clear.

Per Coinglass data, SOL futures open interest rose from $4.94 billion on May 1 to $6.4 billion—up 29.5%, or ~$1.5 billion, in half a month. This is not leveraged position-rolling among existing players but direct evidence of new capital entering the market.

Spot market buying is aligning accordingly. Per velo.chart data, the cumulative volume net difference (CVD)—a metric measuring the net imbalance between active buy and sell orders—rose from $163 million to nearly $250 million over five days. Futures CVD has risen steadily since May 5, expanding to ~$594 million. Buyers are absorbing liquidity from sellers across both spot and futures markets.

Funding rates remain near 0.065%, indicating that longs continue paying to maintain positions—but not yet at overheated levels. However, after SOL reached the $95–$96 range, both spot price and CVD have begun flattening, suggesting a short-term loss of momentum.

Alpenglow Launches on Testnet; Solana’s Largest Consensus Upgrade Nears Mainnet Deployment

Beyond capital flows and technicals, fundamentals are providing catalysts.

According to CoinDesk’s May 11 report, Solana’s core development team Anza announced that Alpenglow—the largest consensus upgrade in Solana’s history—has launched on the community test cluster. The upgrade replaces the current Proof-of-History and TowerBFT systems with new Votor and Rotor protocols, aiming to reduce transaction finality time from ~12.8 seconds to ~150 milliseconds—a speed-up of nearly 100x.

In last September’s community vote, 98.27% of stakers voted in favor of the proposal, with a participation rate of 52%. Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko stated at last week’s Consensus conference in Miami that, assuming smooth testing, Alpenglow could go live on mainnet as early as next quarter.

Quiet Shift in Holder Structure: Healthier Distribution After “Tourists Exit”

Crypto KOL gum noted on X that SOL is breaking out of a four-month consolidation—but this breakout stems from more than just technical factors. He argues that SOL’s breakout now—not one month ago—is because it acts as a barometer of overall crypto market risk appetite, and its current move is pricing in “risk returning.”

More crucially, the token distribution has shifted. Gum points out that short-term traders and speculative capital have largely abandoned SOL during the four-month sideways phase, causing trading volume to plummet. Conviction holders have regained control over token distribution. Under such a structure, any reasonable uptick in trading volume is more likely to push price upward.

Further reading: KOL Perspective: Why SOL Is Poised for an Uptrend at This Price Level?

Risk Warning: Short-Term Momentum Shows Early Signs of Cooling

Note that buying pressure has started weakening in the $95–$96 range, and both spot and futures CVD have flattened over the past 24 hours. The Adam & Eve pattern still requires confirmation via a daily close above resistance—if SOL fails to hold above $95, a pullback toward the $89–$91 support zone remains possible.

Additionally, BeInCrypto previously warned that if May ETF inflows fail to stabilize—or even decline further—SOL may face selling pressure from exchange-based liquidity providers. Rapid accumulation of high-leverage positions also implies that a price correction could trigger cascading liquidations, amplifying volatility. Likewise, the liquidity vacuum left behind after meme-coin-driven retail enthusiasm fades is a historically recurring risk pattern.

Multiple signals—from capital flows, derivatives, and technical analysis—are converging in the same direction. Yet markets have repeatedly defied such alignment. While the $120 technical target is clearly visible, every step from $95 to $120 must be validated by real buying demand.