Hyperliquid Enters Prediction Markets; BTC Price Prediction Surpasses Polymarket and Kalshi in First-Day Trading Volume

Author: DLNews

Translation & Compilation: TechFlow

TechFlow Intro: Hyperliquid—a decentralized finance (DeFi) exchange handling $6 billion in daily derivatives trading volume—has launched prediction markets. Its first Bitcoin contract saw trading volume three times the combined total of Polymarket and Kalshi’s equivalent markets. Bernstein has added prediction markets to its core research coverage—alongside tokenization and stablecoins—viewing these instruments as increasingly institutionalized hedging tools for hedge funds. Wall Street is now taking this $24 billion sector seriously.

Hyperliquid is encroaching on Kalshi’s and Polymarket’s turf.

The DeFi exchange, which processes $6 billion in daily derivatives volume, launched its first outcome-based contract product last weekend—early data is striking, according to Hyunsu Jung, CEO of Hyperion DeFi.

Jung told DL News that trading volume for its first Bitcoin outcome market was roughly triple the combined volume of comparable markets on Polymarket and Kalshi.

“This demonstrates that a shared liquidity layer is effective in converting users,” he said. “Binary markets are the natural next step toward building a full financial stack on Hyperliquid—a platform that dominates crypto perpetuals and demonstrated 24/7 real-world asset trading in the first half of 2026.” Hyperion DeFi is a publicly traded U.S. company focused on accumulating Hyperliquid’s HYPE token.

This launch places Hyperliquid in direct competition with Polymarket and Kalshi—at a moment of critical timing, according to Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and colleagues, who shared their report with DL News on Monday.

Bernstein has just expanded its digital assets research scope to include prediction markets—elevating them as one of three key trends tracked alongside tokenization and stablecoins—signaling Wall Street’s growing attention to the sector.

Fund Managers Are Watching

Bernstein’s memo frames Hyperliquid’s launch within a broader shift now entering institutional view.

Bernstein believes prediction market contracts offer macro-oriented funds a clearer way to hedge event risk than traditional instruments. FX options or commodity exposures carry basis risk—asset prices may move partially before an event’s outcome is known.

But a binary contract defined as “Will the U.S. impose tariffs exceeding 25% on EU goods in 2026?” settles solely on the outcome; premiums, maximum loss, and payout are all known in advance, analysts note.

Kalshi took the lead in targeting institutions. Last week, it executed its first customized block trade—via Greenlight Commodities brokerage—between an environmental hedge fund in Houston and Jump Trading Group, linked to the clearing price of California’s May carbon allowance auction. Institutional broker Clear Street has also partnered with Kalshi to become the first regulated futures commission merchant (FCM) offering hedge funds access to regulated clearing for prediction markets.

Meanwhile, Hyperliquid’s prediction product HIP-4 directly inherits the platform’s institutional-grade credentials.

In February, FalconX launched prime brokerage margin financing for Hyperliquid, enabling cross-venue margin trading across Binance, OKX, Bybit, and Deribit using a single collateral pool. Ripple Prime—clearing over $3 trillion annually—added Hyperliquid as its first DeFi venue that same month. Anchorage Digital, the only federally chartered crypto bank in the U.S., supports HYPE custody and staking.

Key Metrics to Watch

Jung said key milestones to track include trading volume and open interest growth—and which new markets will be added next. HIP-4 launched with Bitcoin price outcomes but is expected to expand to HYPE and Ethereum contracts, and to extend beyond its current 15-minute time frame.

According to Bernstein data, Polymarket and Kalshi’s combined monthly trading volume reached nearly $24 billion in April. Kalshi currently holds 62% market share—up from 55% in January—driven by its dominance in sports betting, which accounts for about 72% of its volume.

Full permissionless deployment by third-party teams is expected around mid-June—coinciding with the FIFA World Cup, historically one of the highest-volume events in prediction market history. The 2026 World Cup is already Polymarket’s second-highest-volume market ever, at $884 million.