May 2 Market Recap: Nasdaq Breaks Above 25,000 for the First Time; Iran Submits New Proposal, Oil Price Falls Below $105
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May 2 Market Recap: Nasdaq Breaks Above 25,000 for the First Time; Iran Submits New Proposal, Oil Price Falls Below $105
The Nasdaq has broken above 25,000—but the real question is when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: TechFlow
U.S. Equities: Nasdaq at 25,000 — A Number That Never Existed Before
On Friday, the Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 25,114.44 — the first time in financial history that humanity has entered the weekend with the index above 25,000.
The S&P 500 rose 0.29% to 7,230.12, setting yet another all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.31% to 49,499.27 — just 500 points shy of the symbolic 50,000 threshold, yet still unable to breach it. The Russell 2000 gained 0.46%, while the VIX closed at 16.99, reflecting stable, low-level market anxiety.
This week, Wall Street delivered an almost inconceivable finish: amid Brent crude surging intraday to $126, Fed Chair Powell’s 8–4 split vote marking his farewell, and the MAG4 collectively announcing $725 billion in new capital expenditures, the S&P 500 posted a weekly gain, the Nasdaq posted a weekly gain, and the broad market held firmly at a new all-time high.
The logic driving Friday’s gains remained unchanged from the entire month of April: earnings reports — and Apple.
Apple rose another ~3% on Friday, converting last night’s after-hours earnings boost into official intraday gains. Alphabet’s 9% after-hours surge on Thursday had already been partially digested, yet it continued outperforming the broader market on Friday. Qualcomm jumped 15%, lifting the entire semiconductor subsector — driven by its statement that “collaboration with a leading ultra-large customer on custom chips is progressing as planned, with initial shipments expected this year.” Though unnamed, the market read between the lines.
Yet divergence was equally stark on Friday. SanDisk served as today’s most ironic example: Q1 revenue of $5.95 billion surged year-on-year; adjusted EPS of $23.41 vastly exceeded consensus of $14.51; and Q4 guidance of $775–825 million also surpassed the market’s $665 million consensus. By any measure, this was an outstanding report card — yet the stock fell ~5%. The sole reason? It had already surged over 360% year-to-date, prompting investors to take profits on good news. Whether the earnings were strong mattered less than how much the stock had risen *before* the earnings release.
Roblox plunged ~17%. The online gaming platform sharply lowered its full-year guidance, blaming its newly launched age-verification system. To comply with regulatory requirements for minor protection, Roblox began mandating age verification for U.S. users — resulting in significant friction-driven attrition among younger users. This is a uniquely 2026 story: the first major publicly listed casualty of the triangular博弈 among regulation, child safety, and growth targets.
Energy giants Exxon and Chevron both reported earnings that beat expectations — yet both missed on revenue. The Strait of Hormuz blockade disrupted Middle Eastern oil production and transportation, constraining output and dragging down sales. Exxon’s net profit declined 45% year-on-year; Chevron’s dropped 36%. With oil prices doubling, their own production was throttled by war — a deeply ironic twist.
LSEG’s latest data shows: Over 80% of S&P 500 constituents have now reported Q1 results; the earnings growth forecast for the index has been sharply revised upward from 16.1% at the start of this earnings season to 27.8% — the strongest quarterly growth since Q4 2021. This is the most solid fundamental underpinning of the current market rally: not liquidity-driven, but genuine profit-driven.
Oil: Iran Submits New Proposal — $108 Is the Price Discovery of Peace Premium
Friday’s oil trading session was the most intriguing since the outbreak of hostilities.
Prior to market open, Iranian state media reported that Tehran had submitted a newly revised peace negotiation document to the U.S. via Pakistani channels on Thursday evening. Pakistani officials confirmed to the press that the document had been transmitted to the U.S., expressing “cautious optimism” that the two sides are “closer to reaching an agreement than ever before.”
This news directly erased the panic premium accumulated in Brent crude from its prior-day high of $126. WTI crude fell over 3%, closing at $101.94 per barrel — its first close below $102 in over two weeks. Brent fell ~2%, closing at $108.17.
Then Trump appeared.
At the White House, he told reporters: “Iran wants to talk, but I’m not satisfied with their proposal. Iran effectively no longer has an army.” His tone was milder than in recent weeks — no mention of “Black Hawks,” no reference to intensified strikes. Markets interpreted the signal as: negotiations remain ongoing, but are still in the bargaining phase.
On the same day, Trump publicly declared his intent to ignore the 60-day congressional authorization deadline stipulated in the War Powers Resolution, calling the law “unconstitutional” and citing precedent that “every president has exceeded it.” Democratic lawmakers in Congress began discussing potential legal challenges — though few believe such action would meaningfully constrain the war’s trajectory in the near term.
Oil settled in the $102–108 range — a delicate equilibrium: $126 reflected panic triggered by public disclosure of the “intensified strike plan”; $95 marked the initial rebound price early in the conflict; $108 represents the pragmatic price for “negotiations aren’t dead, but they’re not done either.” Today, markets completed a meaningful pricing recalibration.
Gold edged up slightly to $4,625 per ounce on Friday, recovering ~1.6% from its two-day low of $4,550. As oil prices retreated, the U.S. Dollar Index softened marginally, giving gold some breathing room. The 10-year Treasury yield declined from its weekly high of 4.41% to ~4.38%.
Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin +2.4% Rally — But Las Vegas Conference Hype Was Ineffective
In a season when Bitcoin conferences have historically driven price volatility, the 2026 Las Vegas event delivered an unusually sobering lesson.
The Bitcoin 2026 conference convened this week in Las Vegas. Its speaker lineup was exceptionally high-profile: Eric Trump (Trump’s second son and co-founder of American Bitcoin), Michael Saylor (CEO of MicroStrategy), Senator Cynthia Lummis, Senator Bernie Moreno, and representatives from the White House’s “AI & Crypto Czar” team — an entire row of America’s most influential Bitcoin evangelists taking turns on stage.
Eric Trump stated outright: “I have absolute conviction that Bitcoin will reach $1 million. I don’t know if it’s 2030 or 2031, but it will happen.” Saylor’s target price was even higher. Every speaker proclaimed “the greatest era,” “institutional inflows accelerating,” and “governments will never sell their Bitcoin.”
A Bloomberg reporter on-site published what became the week’s clearest analysis, headlined: “Bitcoin Price Stalls Amid Bullish Cheering in Las Vegas.” The article noted that while every celebrity on stage shouted price targets into microphones, Bitcoin remained range-bound near $76,000 — “the evangelism strategy has ceased to move the price.”
This precisely captures the market’s current condition.
But Friday brought a real shift: oil prices fell 3% on Iran’s peace proposal, improving risk sentiment — and Bitcoin rallied from an early-session low of $76,130 to close at $78,147, gaining 2.41% on the day. CoinGecko’s closing price aligned with Yahoo Finance. Ethereum rose ~2% in tandem; global crypto market cap rebounded to ~$2.68 trillion; and the Fear & Greed Index recovered from Monday’s 39 (Fear) to the 43–45 range (Neutral-Leaning-Cautious).
This rally’s source wasn’t the line of microphones on stage — it was an early price signal reflecting renewed expectations of the Strait of Hormuz reopening.
What makes Bitcoin’s performance on this day especially noteworthy is the conclusion of a research report released the same day. Invezz cited data showing that since the outbreak of war on February 28, Bitcoin has risen ~20%, compared to ~8% for the S&P 500 and ~5% for gold — marking the first time in history that Bitcoin has simultaneously outperformed all traditional safe-haven assets during a major geopolitical conflict. BlackRock’s IBIT, MicroStrategy, and institutional long-term holdings acted as a floor during every panic-driven selloff caused by oil shocks.
Another subtle signal: Morgan Stanley officially launched its Bitcoin ETF product (Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust, MSBT) this month and publicly advised clients to allocate 2–4% of portfolios to Bitcoin. With $7.35 trillion in assets under management, Morgan Stanley has now become a Bitcoin stock-picking advocate.
Today’s Summary: Nasdaq Breaks 25,000 — But the Real Question Is When Will the Strait of Hormuz Reopen?
May 1 — the first trading day — concluded with a historically significant number.
U.S. Equities: Nasdaq closed at 25,114.44 (first-ever break above 25,000); S&P 500 closed at 7,230.12; Dow fell 0.31% to 49,499.27. Apple +3%, Qualcomm +15%, Alphabet rose again. Roblox −17%, SanDisk −5%, Meta continued digesting. Over 80% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 results; earnings growth forecast upgraded to 27.8% — strongest since 2021.
Oil/Gold: Iran submitted its latest peace proposal via Pakistan; Brent fell 2% to $108.17; WTI fell 3% to $101.94 — down $17 from its $126 peak. Trump expressed “dissatisfaction,” yet his war rhetoric noticeably softened. Gold edged up modestly to $4,625.
Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin closed at $78,147, up 2.41% on the day — its first notable rebound this week, driven by improved risk sentiment following Iran’s peace proposal, not Las Vegas’ $1 million hype. Global crypto market cap stood at ~$2.68 trillion; Fear & Greed Index at 43, recovering from the Fear zone.
The market now cares about only one question: Did Trump actually read — and internalize — this new proposal?
Iran’s latest document reportedly concedes ground on the issue of “delaying nuclear talks” — precisely the core sticking point behind Trump’s previous rejection. If substantive negotiations commence now, the Strait of Hormuz could reopen faster than anyone expects. If Trump continues rejecting the proposal, within the next 60 days he’ll face not only Iran, but also congressional debate over the War Powers Resolution and questions about whether oil prices can sustain further upside.
At least one thing is certain this Friday: Brent at $108 is the market’s pricing of “negotiations aren’t dead.” Compared to $126, those $17 represent the most expensive sliver of breathing room the global economy has ever purchased.
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