Bitget UEX Daily Report | U.S.-Iran Tensions Boost Inflation Expectations; Gold Posts Largest Weekly Drop in Six Years; Oil Prices Surge Then Plunge
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Bitget UEX Daily Report | U.S.-Iran Tensions Boost Inflation Expectations; Gold Posts Largest Weekly Drop in Six Years; Oil Prices Surge Then Plunge
The crypto market benefits from continuous ETF inflows and institutional accumulation of Bitcoin; BTC’s dominance remains stable. A short-term easing of geopolitical tensions could trigger a rebound, but regulatory uncertainty remains the primary risk. Overall, investment banks recommend seeking high-quality asset allocation opportunities amid volatility.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Bitget
I. Top News Highlights
Federal Reserve Updates
Market Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts This Year Fully Erased
- Following signals from the Bank of England on inflation control, U.S. Treasury prices dropped sharply; traders abandoned all bets on Fed rate cuts for 2026, with some even hedging against potential future hikes;
- The two-year Treasury yield surged 13 basis points to 3.9%;
- Market impact: A tighter interest-rate path directly weighed on risk assets, with precious metals under particularly pronounced pressure.
Global Commodities
Mideast Tension-Relief Comments Trigger Brief Oil Price Spike Followed by Sharp Reversal
- Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu pledged a pause in airstrikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure; U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated possible partial lifting of Iranian oil sanctions and release of strategic reserves—floating inventory estimated at 130–140 million barrels;
- Both WTI and Brent crude initially spiked before plunging;
- Key driver: Anticipated increase in physical supply capped price gains; oil prices expected to revert to February levels.
Macroeconomic Policy
White House Advances AI Regulatory Framework; PBOC Stresses Market Stability
- The White House plans to submit an AI legislative proposal to Congress this Friday, focusing on online child safety, federal standards primacy, and creator protections;
- The U.S. also approved certain Russian crude deliveries for sale.
II. Market Recap
Commodities & FX Performance
- Spot Gold: Down for the seventh consecutive trading day, briefly nearing $4,500/oz—on track for its largest weekly decline in six years, pressured by reversed rate expectations;
- Spot Silver: Plunged up to 12% before rebounding to $72.80—exhibiting far greater volatility than gold;
- WTI Crude: Peaked at $100.48 before retreating to $93.67, driven by U.S. plans to increase Iranian oil supply;
- Brent Crude: Rose to $112 before dropping to $102.33;
- U.S. Dollar Index: Rose to 100.309 before falling to current level of 99.315—reflecting combined influence of easing geopolitical tensions and shifting rate expectations.
Cryptocurrency Performance
- BTC: Down ~1.35% over 24 hours, currently trading at $70,124; short-term rebound stalled within the $70,000–$71,000 range after recent lows; slowing inflows into spot ETFs (two consecutive days of net outflows), coupled with tightening rate expectations, exert downward pressure—yet institutional holdings and eased geopolitical tensions continue to provide floor support;
- ETH: Down 2.33% over 24 hours, trading near $2,147; broadly tracking broader market trends and facing near-term headwinds;
- Cryptocurrency Total Market Cap: Down 1.8% over 24 hours, now at $2.48 trillion—trading sideways amid risk sentiment;
- Market Liquidations: $406 million liquidated over 24 hours—$303 million longs, $99 million shorts.
- Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price ~$70,000. A dense cluster of long liquidations exists between $69,000–$70,500—if price falls further, cascading long liquidations may amplify downside volatility. Conversely, heavy short liquidation leverage is concentrated above $71,000–$73,000; a breakout above this zone could trigger short squeezes and propel further upside.
- Spot ETFs: BTC spot ETF net outflow of -$51.9 million yesterday; ETH spot ETF net outflow of -$36.6 million;
- BTC Spot Flows: $2.453 billion inflow vs. $2.583 billion outflow yesterday—net outflow of ~$130 million.
U.S. Equity Index Performance
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Down 0.44% to 46,021.43—two straight sessions lower, hitting lowest since November last year;
- S&P 500: Down 0.27% to 6,606.49—narrowing intraday losses;
- Nasdaq Composite: Down 0.28% to 22,090.69—dragged down overall by tech sector, though select sub-sectors posted gains.
Tech Giants’ Updates
- NVIDIA: Down 1.02% (closing ~$178.56); CEO Jensen Huang urged industry leaders at recent events to discuss AI risks cautiously and avoid inciting panic that could exacerbate societal anxiety;
- Alphabet: Down ~0.19% (closing ~$307); expanded collaboration with utility providers to reduce peak power demand at data centers, supporting sustainable scaling of AI infrastructure;
- Apple: Down 0.39% (closing ~$249); broadly aligned with tech-sector correction—no major event-driven catalyst;
- Microsoft: Down 0.71% (closing ~$392); impacted by tightening macro rate outlook—AI cloud business remains robust but faces near-term valuation pressure;
- Amazon: Down 0.53% (closing ~$209); dual drivers of e-commerce and cloud services still weighed down by broad market sentiment;
- Meta: Down 1.46% (closing ~$616); announced phased rollout of AI-powered content moderation systems—reducing reliance on third-party vendors to improve efficiency and cost control;
- Tesla: Down 3.18% (closing ~$380.30); heightened volatility amid expectations around EV deliveries and Robotaxi progress, compounded by declining risk appetite.
Sector Rotation Observations
Optical Communications rose over 8%
- Key stocks: Lumentum (+10.18%), Applied Optoelectronics (+10.03%);
- Driver: AI data center expansion boosting demand—optical module manufacturers reporting strong order books.
Memory Stocks rose
- Key stocks: Seagate Technology (+6.84%), Western Digital (+3.95%);
- Driver: AI compute demand underpinning growth; SanDisk shares hit new highs.
Gold Mining fell over 5%
- Key stocks: Newmont Corporation (-6.89%), Harmony Gold (-6.25%);
- Driver: Sustained gold price declines weighing on related equities.
III. In-Depth Stock Analysis
1. Alibaba – Five-Year Cloud & AI Business Outlook
Event Summary: During its earnings call, CEO Eddie Wu emphasized persistent global compute scarcity over the next three to five years. Pingtouge (its semiconductor unit) serves not only to optimize costs but also as a critical compute supply safeguard. Cloud and AI-related revenue is projected to exceed $10 billion annually within five years—no IPO timeline has been disclosed. Market Interpretation: Institutions broadly recognize Alibaba’s strategic value amid compute scarcity; cloud operations are poised to shift from cost center to growth engine. Investment Insight: Near-term focus should be on execution pace; long-term valuation re-rating potential remains strong given AI infrastructure positioning.
2. Uber – Rivian Autonomous Taxi Partnership
Event Summary: Uber announced up to $1.25 billion investment in Rivian, with plans to procure 10,000 fully autonomous R2 Robotaxis—and retain an option to acquire an additional 40,000 units by 2030. Deployment across multiple U.S. cities begins in 2028. Market Interpretation: Wall Street views this as accelerating commercialization of Robotaxis, potentially raising Uber’s long-term growth ceiling. Investment Insight: Monitor regulatory developments and vehicle delivery timelines—successful rollout would significantly enhance valuation appeal.
3. Super Micro Computer – Export Control Investigation
Event Summary: The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York indicted three individuals affiliated with the company for alleged export control violations. Super Micro itself was not named as a defendant, and affirmed it maintains a robust compliance framework. Market Interpretation: Institutions see near-term share pressure, but view the firm’s strong compliance history as limiting long-term business impact. Investment Insight: Track investigation progress—resolution of compliance concerns could present a recovery opportunity.
4. Planet Labs – FY2026 Results Beat Expectations
Event Summary: FY2026 full-year revenue reached $307.7 million, up 26% YoY; Q4 revenue stood at $86.8 million, up 41% YoY. FY2027 guidance raised—full-year revenue forecast now $415–$440 million. Market Interpretation: Analysts highlight rising satellite data demand in AI and defense applications; raised guidance reinforces confidence. Investment Insight: Dual beat on both results and guidance—ideal for investors focused on long-term space application trends.
5. FedEx – Strong FY2026 Q3 Performance
Event Summary: Q3 revenue totaled $24 billion, up 8% YoY; adjusted EPS $5.25. FY2026 revenue growth guidance raised to 6.0%–6.5%; freight spin-off progressing per schedule. Market Interpretation: Institutions attribute growth to demand recovery and operational efficiencies—raised guidance signals positive momentum. Investment Insight: Watch logistics cycle recovery; steady earnings growth supports valuation recovery.
IV. Cryptocurrency Project Updates
- According to Cointelegraph’s report yesterday, despite Bitcoin falling below $71,000, bullish momentum remains intact. Bitcoin peaked at $76,000 on Tuesday before retreating 7%, triggered by Israel’s strike on Iranian gas facilities (boosting oil prices) and hotter-than-expected U.S. PPI data—both contributing to U.S. equity declines. Analysts note sustained buying from U.S.-listed ETFs and Strategies continues to underpin spot demand. Bitcoin’s long leverage remains low—cascading liquidations unlikely even with another 5% drop. Rising inflation concerns erode fixed-income returns, paving the way for capital rotation from gold into Bitcoin. Bitcoin perpetual funding rates remained below neutral when price broke above $76,000—confirming spot-driven, not derivatives-fueled, strength. Gold’s weakening price action suggests potential outflows—if realized, such flows could become a key catalyst for Bitcoin’s sustained rally. Per Lookonchain, a mysterious whale spent $36.75 million in USDT to acquire 17,084 ETH at an average price of $2,151. U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending March 14 came in at 205,000—the lowest since January 10—below consensus of 215,000 and prior 213,000. Citigroup lowered its 12-month BTC and ETH price targets, citing slowing ETF inflows and sluggish legislative progress. Sam Altman’s World project partnered with Coinbase to launch AgentKit—an AI agent identity verification solution integrated with stablecoin payments—potentially unlocking a multi-trillion-dollar new market. Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy, posted on social media: “Bitcoin is the ultimate hedge against chaos,” accompanied by the “$BTC” tag—reaffirming Bitcoin’s role as a core asset tool against macro and financial uncertainty.
V. Today’s Market Calendar
Data Release Schedule
| 20:30 | U.S. | Existing Home Sales | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| 21:00 | U.S. | Baker Hughes Rig Count | ⭐⭐ |
Key Event Preview
Friday, March 20
- FedEx to release latest quarterly results.
Institutional Views:
Latest analyses from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan indicate that short-term geopolitical tensions have elevated inflation expectations and erased Fed rate-cut bets—pressuring gold and silver. Yet long-term central bank gold purchases and investor demand continue to anchor gold prices, with forecasts pointing toward $5,000/oz or higher by end-2026. On oil, U.S. plans to release Iranian oil and strategic reserves may quickly ease supply tightness—WTI and Brent likely to revert to February levels, with structural oversupply persisting. For U.S. equities, AI themes and accommodative monetary policy remain supportive—S&P 500 projected for double-digit annual gains—but elevated valuations warrant caution against volatility. Crypto markets benefit from sustained ETF inflows and institutional accumulation—BTC dominance holds firm; short-term geopolitical de-escalation may spark rebounds, though regulatory uncertainty remains the primary risk. Overall, banks advise seeking high-quality asset allocation opportunities amid volatility.
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