80% of Tokens Launch Below Their Issue Price; IPO Funding Surges 48-Fold—A Shift in Crypto Capital Has Already Occurred
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80% of Tokens Launch Below Their Issue Price; IPO Funding Surges 48-Fold—A Shift in Crypto Capital Has Already Occurred
Tokens are dead; crypto lives on.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: DWF Ventures
Translated and compiled by TechFlow
TechFlow Intro: This report from DWF Ventures uses data to make one thing clear: capital hasn’t left crypto—it’s simply shifted赛道. In 2025, over 80% of token launches traded below their TGE price, while crypto IPO fundraising surged 48-fold to $14.6 billion year-on-year, and M&A volume hit a five-year high of $4.25 billion. This is not merely a matter of market sentiment—it reflects a systemic migration in capital structure. A wave of IPOs—including Kraken, Ledger, and Animoca—is already on the horizon for 2026.
Key Conclusions
The old playbook for token launches has ended. High valuations coupled with declining liquidity have eroded investor confidence, and capital flows are shifting decisively toward equity.
Tokens and equity offer comparable upside potential—but their risk profiles differ significantly: tokens tend to peak faster (within 30 days) and face greater volatility; equity, by contrast, delivers more stable, sustained appreciation over longer time horizons.
Equity commands a higher valuation premium than tokens—driven by institutional accessibility, eligibility for index inclusion, and broader trading strategy options supported by equity instruments.
Price-to-sales (P/S) ratios provide a useful benchmark for company valuation, yet wide dispersion in P/S multiples underscores the importance of other factors—including regulatory moats, revenue diversification, shareholder value creation, and sector sentiment.
M&A activity reached a five-year high, accelerating industry consolidation: acquiring capabilities has proven faster than building them in-house, and regulatory compliance is now a key driver of strategic M&A.
Current State of Token Launches
The crypto industry has reached an inflection point. Billions of dollars are flowing in, institutional interest is at its peak, and regulation is turning increasingly favorable—yet for builders and users alike, everything feels dimmer than ever before. The widening gap between institutional capital inflows and native community morale reflects a deeper issue: the original spirit of decentralization and cypherpunk experimentation appears to be fading amid the influx—and outsized influence—of centralized entities.
Crypto has long thrived in a high-risk, casino-like environment—a setting now being gradually stripped away as token performance deteriorates sharply. Extractive events, which disproportionately impact retail investors, have further accelerated liquidity withdrawal from the market.
According to Memento Research, over 80% of tokens launched in 2025 are currently trading below their TGE price. Projects have been severely impacted by high volatility and broad-based weakness in token demand—stemming from unsustainable, unjustifiable valuations. Upside potential is also scarce: most tokens face heavy selling pressure from day one—driven by early profit-taking, lack of genuine product conviction, or flawed tokenomics (e.g., airdrops, CEX listings). This has dampened investor and retail enthusiasm, while “10/10” events have further exacerbated capital outflows, calling into question the industry’s core infrastructure.
The Rise of IPOs
Meanwhile, in traditional markets, IPOs are gaining strong traction among crypto companies—2025 saw numerous notable listings, and many more firms are filing applications ahead of upcoming IPOs. Data shows crypto IPO fundraising rose 48-fold compared to 2024, exceeding $14.6 billion in 2025. M&A activity followed a similar surge, with leading core firms actively pursuing diversified strategies—an expansion we explore further below. Overall, these companies’ strong performance demonstrates robust market demand for digital asset exposure—a trend likely to accelerate further into 2026.
Where Liquidity Is Flowing
Over the past year, both high-profile IPOs and ICOs have raised substantial capital. The table below shows each company’s fundraising amount and initial valuation.
We observe that IPO and ICO valuations are relatively close. Some ICOs—such as Plasma—are deliberately priced below institutional investor valuations to deliver greater upside and participation opportunities for retail investors. On average, IPOs offer 12–20% of shares publicly, while ICOs allocate 7–12% of total supply for public sale. World Liberty Finance stands out as a clear exception, offering over 35% of its total supply for sale.
Analyzing post-launch performance, tokens correlate with greater short-term volatility and shorter time-to-peak (within 30 days). Equity, by contrast, tends to deliver steady gains over longer timeframes. Notably, however, both exhibit comparable upside potential.
CRCL and XPL are outliers: both delivered explosive initial gains—offering investors 10x to 25x upside from launch. Yet even they follow the broader pattern: XPL retraced 65% from its peak within two weeks, while CRCL climbed steadily over the same period.
Revenue: Assessing the Equity Premium
Examining revenue figures reveals that equities command a higher valuation premium than tokens—P/S ratios range from 7x to 40x for equity versus 2x to 16x for tokens. This stems from enhanced liquidity driven by several factors:
Institutional Access: While positive sentiment around holding digital assets on balance sheets continues to grow, it remains largely confined to funds authorized to hold securities—particularly pensions and endowments. Choosing an IPO enables companies to tap this institutional capital pool.
Index Inclusion: Public-market tailwinds far exceed those on-chain. Coinbase’s May 2025 inclusion in the S&P 500—as the first crypto company—likely generated significant buying pressure from index-tracking funds and ETFs.
Alternative Strategies: Compared to on-chain tokens, equity supports a wider range of institutional trading strategies—including options and leverage—whereas on-chain tokens often suffer from insufficient liquidity and counterparty depth.
Overall, P/S ratios reflect a company’s valuation relative to its last 12 months of revenue—helping assess whether it trades at a discount or premium versus peers. However, qualitative factors influencing investor sentiment remain outside the scope of such metrics. Key considerations when evaluating stocks versus tokens include:
Moats & Diversification: Critical in the fast-evolving digital asset industry. Markets assign premiums to licenses and regulatory compliance, while diversified business models strengthen core value propositions beyond pure revenue numbers.
For example, Figure launched its own RWA lending pool open to both retail and institutional investors—and became the first issuer approved by the SEC for a yield-bearing stablecoin ($YLDS). Bullish, a regulated exchange, also owns CoinDesk and other businesses—enhancing its value beyond pure trading services. These factors likely contribute to higher valuation premiums.
In contrast, eToro’s low P/S ratio may superficially suggest “undervaluation,” but deeper analysis reveals revenue growth closely tracking cost increases—not an optimal profile. Moreover, its sole focus on trading services offers limited differentiation and low margins. This underscores that defensible moats and diversified operations remain top-of-mind for investors.
Shareholder Value: Capital return via buybacks is common for both stocks and tokens—especially among high-revenue firms.
For instance, Hyperliquid runs one of the most aggressive buyback programs, allocating 97% of revenue to repurchases. Since genesis, its treasury has bought back over 40.5 million HYPE tokens—more than 4% of total supply. Such aggressive buybacks impact price: so long as revenue remains stable and sector growth potential persists, they bolster investor confidence. This lifts the P/S ratio—but does not necessarily imply the token is “overvalued,” given the tangible, team-driven support behind it.
Sector Sentiment: High-growth sectors shaped by institutional or regulatory developments naturally command premiums, as investors seek exposure.
For example, Circle’s stock surged rapidly after its June 2025 listing, peaking at a P/S ratio of ~27x. This likely reflected passage of the GENIUS Act—a framework designed to legalize stablecoin issuance and adoption—shortly after Circle’s IPO, positioning Circle as a primary beneficiary given its leadership in stablecoin infrastructure.
M&A: The Great Consolidation
Per the report, crypto M&A activity hit a five-year high in 2025—driven by large-scale TradFi institutional entry and a more favorable regulatory climate. Following a series of crypto-friendly policies introduced by the Trump administration, the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) trend surged, making digital asset holdings on corporate balance sheets far less controversial. Companies also pivoted toward acquisition—viewing it as a faster, more efficient path to securing specific licenses and enhancing compliance. Overall, the emergence of an appropriate regulatory framework laid the groundwork for accelerated M&A.
Looking back over the past year, transaction volumes across all categories rose markedly. Three categories emerged as institutional priorities:
Investment & Trading: Encompassing trade settlement, tokenization, derivatives, lending, and DAT infrastructure;
Brokers & Exchanges: Regulated platforms centered on digital assets;
Stablecoins & Payments: Covering on/off-ramp channels, infrastructure, and applications.
Together, these three categories accounted for over 96% of 2025’s M&A value—totaling more than $42.5 billion.
Top acquirers included Coinbase, Kraken, and Ripple—all active across multiple categories. Coinbase’s strategy stood out most prominently, signaling its ambition to become a “one-stop super app”—centered on bringing on-chain experiences to mainstream users through acquisitions of both traditional and innovative dApps. This reflects intensifying exchange competition and the race to capture full-stack user traffic.
Firms like FalconX and Moonpay, meanwhile, deepened expertise within their respective niches—using complementary acquisitions to build comprehensive service offerings.
What’s Next for Token Launches
Despite today’s market conditions and sentiment, we believe 2026 will bring significant tailwinds to the digital asset space. More companies are expected to go public—an overall net positive for the industry, expanding access to larger pools of capital and investors, and growing the pie overall.
The next wave of IPO candidates includes:
Kraken: Filed its S-1 registration statement with the SEC in November 2025; strong market expectations for an early-2026 IPO;
Consensys: Reportedly working with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan to prepare for a mid-2026 listing;
Ledger: Targeting a $4 billion valuation, advancing its IPO with Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, and Barclays;
Animoca: Planning a Nasdaq listing in 2026 via a reverse merger with Currency Group Inc.;
Bithumb: Targeting a $1 billion valuation IPO on Korea’s KOSDAQ in 2026, underwritten by Samsung Securities.
The path forward isn’t choosing between TradFi validation and crypto-native innovation—it’s convergence. For builders and investors alike, this means prioritizing fundamentals and building useful products that generate real, sustainable revenue. A shift toward long-termism may cause short-term turbulence—but those who adapt will capture the next wave of value creation.
Tokens are dead. Long live crypto.
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