Interpreting the airdrop distribution rules of veteran Layer1 Sonic: What will be the future price trend of $S tokens?

Author: Yue Xiaoyu

Recently, I've seen quite a few tweets about Sonic, indicating that the Sonic ecosystem remains active and naturally presents many opportunities.

Sonic (formerly Fantom), as an established Layer 1 public blockchain project, stood out during the last bull market thanks to its high performance and innovation.

Today, Sonic has made a strong comeback with a refreshed brand and technical upgrades, launching a massive, long-term airdrop program.

Some might worry whether this large-scale airdrop will negatively impact the price of $S. Here's a brief analysis:

1. Manageable Selling Pressure: Market Impact Is Quantifiable

The first season airdrop releases 47.625 million $S tokens, only 1.5% of the total supply. Additionally, Sonic’s token burn mechanism and fNFT market further reduce selling pressure.

Fantom (Sonic’s predecessor) had an average daily trading volume of approximately $250 million. Even if initial airdrop sell-offs account for 10% of trading volume, the daily downward pressure would be around $25 million—far below the market’s absorption capacity.

2. Ecosystem Explosion: Strong Fundamental Support

Sonic’s TVL has surged from $26 million at the beginning of 2024 to $1 billion (as of May 2025). With top-tier DeFi protocols such as Aave, Silo, Euler, and Shadow joining, Sonic has solidified its position as a DeFi hub.

Sonic’s FeeM model (returning 90% of network fees to developers) disrupts traditional Layer-1 revenue distribution, similar to Airbnb’s incentive structure for hosts. This model attracts a large number of dApp developers.

The ecosystem boom will generate sustained demand for $S (e.g., transaction fees, staking, governance), supporting long-term price appreciation.

3. Differentiated Competition in the Layer 1 Space

Sonic’s SonicVM and sub-second finality are unique among EVM-compatible chains.

Compared to Solana (non-EVM, steep learning curve for developers) and Arbitrum (slightly lower performance), Sonic strikes a balance between performance and compatibility.

Sonic’s rebranding (from Fantom to Sonic) is more than just a name change—it represents a strategic upgrade.

Referencing Polygon’s 30% market cap growth after upgrading from MATIC to POL, Sonic’s repositioning could trigger market repricing.

In Summary

Overall, airdrop-induced selling pressure is limited, and $S may exhibit a "rebound after initial dip" pattern during the early phase of the airdrop.

After an expected short-term pullback (5–10%), ecosystem growth and positive market narratives are likely to drive prices into an upward trend.

The Sonic ecosystem remains vibrant, offers airdrop farming opportunities, and is worth long-term attention.