Alliance DAO's 2024 Crypto Market Review and 2025 Outlook: Bitcoin reaching $250K is market consensus
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Alliance DAO's 2024 Crypto Market Review and 2025 Outlook: Bitcoin reaching $250K is market consensus
As one of the biggest trends, AI has already demonstrated tremendous potential, and in the future we may see more agent platforms and markets gradually mature.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsCompiled by: Wu Blockchain
In this episode of the Good Game Podcast, Imran and Qiao review the 2024 developments in the crypto market through a retrospective of past episodes, covering market cycles, emerging application areas, and the impact of global policy changes on cryptocurrencies.
They revisit key events from the first half of the year, such as Eigenlayer's development bottlenecks, NFT and Memecoin market dynamics, and breakthrough use cases of AI in platforms like OnlyFans and social apps.
Additionally, they analyze price trends for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, and discuss the potential market impact of ETF applications. They explore how market-driven decision-making is shaping the future and share their own predictions for the 2025 cryptocurrency market.
The content of the podcast reflects only the personal views of the guests and does not represent the opinions of Wu Blockchain. Wu Blockchain does not endorse any products or tokens, and readers are advised to strictly comply with local laws and regulations.
Review of the Biggest Crypto Trends in 2024
WIF’s Price Performance and Meme Coin Investing
Imran: When WIF launched on January 24, 2024, its price was between 3 and 4 cents. It has since increased tenfold, which is quite impressive. We discussed this token on our show at the time.
Qiao: We bought in at 3 cents and talked about it again at 30 cents. Back then, popular meme coins were getting a lot of attention, but today's market is far more complex—attention is being diluted. Every two weeks, different major coins rotate into focus, and the sheer volume of tokens makes selection difficult.
Imran: I think liquidity is especially important when investing in meme coins. On-chain trading environments move too fast and are highly complex, suitable only for short-term entertainment investments. For long-term wealth allocation, I recommend choosing tokens listed on exchanges. Holding illiquid tokens may result in being completely unable to exit your position.
The Intersection of AI and Cryptocurrency
Imran: In recent months, AI has attracted massive capital inflows. Previously, crypto dominated discussions on Twitter, but now much of that attention has shifted to AI. Some AI-related tokens have seen enormous gains. This isn't just a meme—it indicates growing market recognition of real utility.
Qiao: Trump recently mentioned AI and crypto as the two most important technologies—a surprising shift. He appears to view them as complementary forces.
Imran: Yes, this kind of statement indirectly validates the value of crypto. The crypto industry has long been overlooked by regulators and mainstream media, but the convergence of AI and crypto is redefining market attention and clearing obstacles for industry growth.
Growth and Market Validation of Stablecoins
Imran: We discussed the potential of stablecoins in our very first episode. Now, market validation is clear. Stripe’s acquisition of Bridge was a landmark event. Data shows that 25% to 30% of crypto users now actively use stablecoins.
Qiao: The total value locked (TVL) and transaction volumes of stablecoins are now comparable to PayPal and Visa. On-chain data reveals widespread global adoption of stablecoins. This was one of the main reasons we invested in the space last year.
Imran: Stablecoins are attracting many entrepreneurs from Silicon Valley. Historically, this space was led by crypto-native teams and startups from emerging markets. Now, traditional fintech companies are increasingly interested in stablecoin functionality, integrating them into products to enhance liquidity and support broader asset transactions.
Tokenization of Real-World Assets
Qiao: Tokenization of real-world assets hasn’t met expectations. Although firms like BlackRock have experimented with tokenizing treasury funds, native crypto users haven’t shown strong interest. We expected these users to diversify from highly volatile crypto assets into more stable ones, but that trend hasn’t materialized this year.
Imran: Regulatory issues are the main barrier, particularly securities regulations. Another problem is poor end-user product experience—for example, the process for investing in tokenized real estate remains unclear.
Imran: Some startups are experimenting with new models. Lofty, for instance, tokenizes real estate income, allowing retail investors to share rental revenues via tokens. These projects show market potential, but speculative growth remains concentrated in meme coins and AI tokens.
Qiao: Perhaps we need another two to three years—regulatory progress and shifts in user behavior could gradually drive development in this area.
Ethereum’s Current State and the Rise of Layer 2
Imran: Ethereum remains in a "transitional phase." We still need more time to see how it resolves scalability and profitability challenges. As for Layer 2, Base stands out as this year’s most prominent project, thanks to Coinbase’s powerful distribution capabilities.
Qiao: I agree. Base’s rise owes much to its brand strength and distribution power. Two years ago, many app developers chose Polygon, but now nearly all are shifting toward Ethereum Layer 2s—with Base being the most popular.
Imran: This is a notable phenomenon. People like Jesse are aggressively promoting Base’s ecosystem worldwide. I believe this founder-driven spirit is a key factor behind Base’s success.
NFT and SocialFi Developments
Qiao: Pudgy Penguins has been the top-performing NFT project this year, even surpassing Bored Apes to become the only large-scale NFT collection to appreciate against ETH.
Imran: SocialFi was a core topic in our first episode. Pump is projected to reach $1 billion in revenue within less than a year, demonstrating the massive potential of SocialFi. It was one of our primary trends to watch at the beginning of the year.
The Future of Appchains vs. Monolithic Chains
Imran: The potential of appchains hasn’t been fully realized yet. Currently, the barrier to launching an appchain is high, and user activity and transaction volume aren’t sufficient to sustain large-scale growth. However, we’re seeing examples like Ronin transitioning to Polygon’s CDK.
Qiao: Appchains primarily aim to serve global users already active on-chain, rather than those who already have access to traditional financial services. For example, Moonshot is building a platform to offer more accessible financial services to on-chain users.
Predictions on ETFs
Imran: We predicted in our podcast that ETFs would be approved—and that prediction came true. This marks a significant acknowledgment of crypto’s legitimacy in mainstream finance.
Qiao: Behind this is the full embrace of crypto by traditional giants like BlackRock and Fidelity. Ten years ago, if someone told me these firms would feature Bitcoin prominently on their homepage, I’d have thought it impossible. But today, it’s reality.
February Recap: Five Trends Driving the Bull Market
ETFs and Market Attention
Imran: We discussed ETFs and also mentioned Gary Gensler being hacked. While just a side story, it highlighted current regulatory environment concerns.
Qiao: We also noted Phantom briefly surpassing Coinbase in the App Store rankings. This is an interesting phenomenon—showing even niche wallet apps can capture user attention quickly.
Imran: While temporary, this reflects the potential of decentralized wallets. I think Phantom needs to improve user retention to benefit from such short-term spikes.
The Rise of Hyperliquid
Imran: Hyperliquid was a project we mentioned on March 5. At that time, they launched their appchain based on Tendermint consensus. Within eight months, their trading volume approached $1 billion, with TVL reaching $300–400 million—an astonishing growth rate.
Imran: I’ve spoken with the Hyperliquid team. They recognize Tendermint consensus as a bottleneck and are redesigning a faster consensus mechanism. Their goal is to deliver the fastest and best trading experience possible.
Qiao: Yes, by launching a fully customized Layer 1 chain, they’ve further optimized their ecosystem. This tailored approach shows deep attention to niche market needs.
Imran: I believe we’ll see more such customized chains in the future. Larger Layer 2s and public chains like Arbitrum, Polygon, and Solana may lose market share to specialized appchains.
Qiao: But this also signals sustained demand for high-performance chains. Hyperliquid could become a model in this space.
Imran: I regret not participating in Hyperliquid’s early farming. At launch, I wasn’t into leveraged trading or derivatives, so I missed out. Seeing their growth now, I’m eager to engage with their future products.
Farcaster User Behavior and Ecosystem Growth
Imran: We discussed Farcaster’s daily active users (DAU), which dropped from a peak of 100,000 to around 40,000. That’s a significant decline, likely due to lack of innovation.
Qiao: They recently launched Snapchain, a framework enabling easy development of Farcaster-based apps—essentially a mini decentralized app store. I think they’re trying to attract developers and users through this tool.
Imran: I’ve noticed UI updates on Farcaster too. You can now click the bottom-right corner to open Explorer, browse apps, and launch them directly. Such innovations suggest they’re actively expanding the functionality of the social graph.
Qiao: Long-term, Farcaster’s opportunity lies in building features Twitter cannot offer. For example, innovative apps combining finance and social graphs could be a promising direction.
Imran: Exactly. This approach helps apps spread quickly and attract more users—the biggest highlight we discussed about Farcaster.
Meme Coin Explosion and SocialFi Potential
Imran: On March 14, we talked about the meme coin surge, specifically TRUMP and HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu. I tried buying in, but the price volatility and cross-chain complexity made me hesitate.
Qiao: HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu saw a brief spike, but overall remains a high-risk project. Meme coins typically have short lifecycles, driven largely by short-term community enthusiasm.
Imran: I recall HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu nearly dropping to zero, but rebounded after news of a new listing. Personally, I see such tokens purely as speculative instruments.
Culture Meets Crypto
Imran: We observed crypto culture spreading via platforms like TikTok. For example, crypto-themed merchandise appeared on TikTok, such as the “Chill Guy” sweater.
Qiao: I almost bought a “Chill Guy” sweater but ultimately decided against it—I thought it might go out of style quickly. I’d rather invest that money in crypto.
Imran: I agree. While these products reflect the spread of crypto culture, their value is mostly symbolic. Still, it shows crypto culture attempting to enter broader consumer markets.
Bitcoin Puppets’ Performance
Imran: Bitcoin Puppets was one of the Bitcoin ecosystem projects we discussed. We bought in at around 50K and it’s now up to 100K. Its performance exceeded expectations.
Qiao: Nodes and Puppets were the top performers. They attracted significant attention and capital, especially among innovative projects in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Crypto Leading Cultural Trends
Imran: We noticed crypto culture gradually entering mainstream social platforms like TikTok. This suggests the industry’s influence is expanding.
Qiao: I believe this cultural diffusion will attract more users into the crypto ecosystem, especially younger generations. It provides fresh momentum for sustaining the bull market.
March Recap: Meme Coins, BlackRock, and L3
Blast Launch and Solana’s Retail Positioning
Imran: On March 14, 2024, we discussed the launch of Blast. We also noted Solana being positioned as the retail investor’s “Degen chain”—an accurate description.
Imran: Our discussion included Solana’s Layer 2 project FireDancer, and insights from CMS and Split Capital on market outlook. All signs indicate Solana is working to expand its user base, particularly targeting retail investors.
ETFs, Meme Coins, and BlackRock’s Influence
Imran: We discussed ETF approvals and revisited market conditions from eight months prior, including the meme coin boom, BlackRock’s market impact, and Layer 3 development trends.
Qiao: I remember we anticipated ETF approval. Daniel and Zaheer were both bullish, especially on ETH ETFs.
Imran: Yes, that bullish sentiment helped drive the market. The meme coin frenzy amplified this trend, though their volatility made long-term holding difficult for many investors.
The Role of Layer 3 and Market Fragmentation
Imran: We discussed Layer 1 roles and market fragmentation, especially during debates between Ethereum and Solana enthusiasts on Farcaster involving Degen Token. Hearing “Layer 3” for the first time, I found the concept hard to accept.
Qiao: Layer 3 development focuses on niche applications, but so far lacks compelling success stories.
Challenges Facing Bitcoin Layer 2
Imran: We touched on Bitcoin Layer 2 development, which still faces slow speeds and poor user experience (UI/UX), especially with PRC-20 tokens, limiting user adoption.
Qiao: Yes, I hope to see major breakthroughs in Bitcoin Layer 2 later this year. Well-funded projects are underway, though results may take until next year.
Imran: Meanwhile, Base and Solana are competing for dominance in AI-related meta narratives. Base holds a slight edge, especially with the Virtual framework offering a clean, user-friendly agent setup.
Qiao: Solana’s Eliza framework enjoys strong community support, but lacks the polished product experience of Virtual. I think Base leads in agent frameworks.
AI Application Competition
Imran: Competition in AI is intense. We discussed Goat’s recent announcement, which regained some attention. Also, ai16z became the #1 library on GitHub, drawing significant developer interest.
Qiao: Zerebro plans to launch ZerePy, competing with Eliza. Goat’s new project, Backdoors 2.0, enables AI agents to converse with humans and generate more refined models based on context.
Bitcoin Halving and Bull Market Discussion
Imran: We discussed the Bitcoin halving and subsequent market dip. Though the market is consolidating, from my perspective, this looks like normal correction behavior.
Qiao: Even with BTC price steady around $65K—where it was two months ago—there’s a lot of complaining on Twitter. Geopolitical tensions, like those between Iran and Israel, may have triggered significant sell-offs.
Telegram’s TON Project
Imran: We mentioned the TON project. Since the founder’s arrest, it’s been largely stalled. Despite strong distribution potential, it suffers from poor developer experience, limited programming language support, high fees, and long block times.
Qiao: Yes, we partially invested in TON’s ecosystem, but most projects eventually pivoted. I believe technical differentiation is no longer key—distribution is now the core to success for Layer 1 and Layer 2 projects.
Imran: That explains Base’s success. It leveraged Coinbase’s distribution channel to capture market share—not because of technical uniqueness. Base’s tech is similar to other OP Stack Layer 2s, but its distribution power sets it apart.
The Evolution of Crypto
Imran: We see Base and Solana continuing to compete for market share in AI and meme narratives. Bitcoin Layer 2 has potential, but UX must improve dramatically.
Qiao: Our discussion shows distribution capability is becoming the core competitive advantage in crypto, especially in Layer 1 and Layer 2 competition. This trend could shape market dynamics for years to come.
April Recap: Eigenlayer, SocialFi Summer, and Capital Outflows
Current State and Challenges of Eigenlayer
Imran: We discussed Eigenlayer—currently, no teams are eager to use it for economic security. For startups, economic security isn’t a priority; they care more about launching quickly and acquiring users.
Qiao: Completely agree. Ultimately, startups prioritize product-market fit and user growth over optimizing underlying infrastructure.
Market Cycle and Bull Phase
Imran: By May, we estimated the market had progressed about 50%. Now, we're likely at 80–90% through the cycle, with perhaps 3 to 6 months remaining.
Qiao: Yes, but in the final 10–20%, price volatility could intensify. Extra caution is needed during this phase.
Imran: My current strategy is to hold steady. I’ve held my portfolio unchanged for three months, especially after catching the AI meta. I prefer not to trade frequently, to avoid being shaken out during volatility.
High FDV Projects and New Launches
Imran: We discussed high FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) projects like Hyperliquid and Movement. Hyperliquid reached an FDV of $12–13 billion, while Movement briefly hit $10 billion.
Qiao: Hyperliquid’s community demonstrates strong organic user appeal, reminiscent of early Ethereum OG investors. This “organic user effect” gives Hyperliquid a unique position in the Layer 1 landscape.
Imran: Movement relies more on “farming” to attract users. Many investors heavily promoted it on Twitter, but lacked the natural, trader-driven growth seen in Hyperliquid.
Qiao: I find Hyperliquid’s positioning clearer—it delivers premium products for degens (high-risk traders), adapting swiftly to market needs. Movement and Aptos rely more on BD partnerships, such as Movement’s AI strategy with OpenAI’s product lead.
SocialFi Summer and Consumer Behavior
Imran: SocialFi is showing early signs of activity, but it’s still nascent. Celebrity tokens may take 1–2 market cycles to gain traction—consumer readiness isn’t there yet.
Qiao: Yes, celebrity tokens may follow a path similar to meme coins. Last year, meme coins were widely mocked, but now they’re mainstream. Consumer behavior and market consensus take time to evolve.
Imran: We’re currently incubating a startup called Cloud, aimed at providing tools for celebrities to launch their own tokens. This model could gain wider adoption in the next cycle.
Observations on the Bitcoin Market
Imran: We also discussed Bitcoin market consolidation. Despite prices hovering around $65K, the market is in a correction phase. I see this more as healthy consolidation than the end of the bull run.
Qiao: Yes, negative sentiment may stem more from geopolitical issues—like tensions between Iran and Israel—leading to short-term selling pressure.
TON Project’s Struggles
Imran: The TON project has struggled since its founder’s arrest. Poor developer experience, limited language support, high fees, and long settlement times continue to hinder progress.
Qiao: Distribution remains TON’s potential strength, but it must improve developer experience and technical execution to regain market relevance.
Timing and Opportunity in the Market
Imran: Many current phenomena—like SocialFi and celebrity tokens—are matters of timing. The market isn’t fully ready, but we can see consumer behavior slowly shifting.
Qiao: We should keep monitoring market rhythm, especially around celebrity tokens and high-FDV projects. These could be key growth drivers in the next market cycle.
Mid-Year Review and Outlook for H2
Market Review and Bull Market Progress
Imran: By June, we were in the mid-phase of the market. Despite positive catalysts—such as Andrew King’s ETF analysis and favorable macro signals—the market didn’t rally strongly. There’s also disagreement on rate cuts, with some viewing near-term outlook as bearish.
Qiao: In the short term, rate cuts may be bullish, but medium-term effects could differ. We once dismissed certain forecasts as “armchair economist” theories, and indeed, their predictions on market timing and reactions proved inaccurate.
AI Applications and the OnlyFans Model
Imran: In June, we explored the trend of creators on OnlyFans using AI chatbots. These bots handle message interactions at scale, becoming a major source of creator income.
Qiao: Yes, the main revenue on OnlyFans isn’t subscriptions—it’s one-on-one messaging. Messages can cost 10 cents or more, and users pay to unlock photos or content. AI is playing an increasingly vital role, freeing creators to focus elsewhere.
Imran: We previously discussed the global trend of loneliness and its link to demand for AI companions. AI is becoming a tool for mental health and social interaction, especially among younger demographics.
NFT and Meme Coin Market Dynamics
Imran: CBB decided to stop providing market liquidity, which impacted the NFT market. Meanwhile, meme coins continue to capture significant market attention.
Qiao: Whether NFTs will return to mainstream relevance remains uncertain. But historically, meme coins have proven capable of dominating market cycles.
Limits of Eigenlayer
Imran: Eigenlayer hasn’t generated broad interest among startup teams, mainly because economic security isn’t their top priority. Developers focus instead on product launches and user growth.
Qiao: This reinforces our repeated point: startups should prioritize users and product over optimizing foundational infrastructure.
Polymarket and the Evolution of Prediction Markets
Imran: We discussed changes in Polymarket’s trading volume, particularly its appeal in sports betting. While overall volume has declined somewhat, the potential of prediction markets remains substantial.
Qiao: Prediction market models are expanding—for example, using market mechanisms to detect online misinformation. Users can be incentivized to submit evidence, expose falsehoods, and earn rewards.
Imran: A market-based version of Community Notes could prove more effective than current fact-checking systems by engaging a broader user base.
ICLs (Initial Community Listings) vs. Venture Capital
Imran: ICLs are rising as a mainstream method for community members to participate in startup funding. We believe ICLs don’t compete with meme coins—they compete with traditional venture capital.
Qiao: VC models may become more focused, but ICLs offer a fairer, more decentralized alternative. Platforms like Pump are becoming primary launchpads for new projects.
The Convergence of AI and Crypto
Imran: We discussed how AI and crypto are merging to create new consumer behaviors and use cases. Startups like Swife are exploring AI-powered social interactions to deliver personalized experiences.
Qiao: This trend is pushing the entire industry forward, especially driven by younger-generation developers.
Gen-Z’s Impact on Crypto
Imran: We’ve observed that many of the most successful crypto applications are built by Gen-Z. This generation is optimistic and adventurous—more willing than previous developers to experiment with bold new directions.
Qiao: Ethereum’s success is a classic example. An 18-year-old Vitalik proposed a simple idea that became Ethereum, while many senior computer scientists doubted it.
Outlook for the Second Half of 2024
Imran: Our prediction for H2 2024 is that the market will remain dominated by AI and community-driven models. ICLs, a potential NFT comeback, and the rise of decentralized science could emerge as new highlights.
Qiao: 2024 will be the year when distribution power and community strength define market outcomes. We’ll closely monitor these trends and continue driving industry innovation.
Predictions for 2025
Bitcoin Price Forecast
Imran: I believe Bitcoin will reach $250K in 2025—that’s the market consensus. But I’m not sure that’s the peak. When everyone expects $250K, it could go higher. I predict it might reach $350K.
Qiao: I give a wider range: $150K minimum, $420K maximum. It depends on two factors: whether strategic Bitcoin reserves are adopted, and the broader macroeconomic environment.
Imran: If Trump takes office in early 2025 and adds Bitcoin to strategic reserves, that would be extremely bullish. He might issue an executive order to retain seized Bitcoin or even direct government purchases of new BTC.
Qiao: Yes, that possibility exists. He might announce such measures on Day One—January 20, 2025.
Trend Toward Strategic Bitcoin Reserves
Imran: I’ve noticed increasing numbers of small organizations—community groups, even apartment buildings—beginning to hold Bitcoin as strategic reserves. For example, a property management team bought Bitcoin at $5,000 for operational reserves. This trend could scale from local to national levels.
Qiao: Yes, this shows Bitcoin adoption spreading beyond governments to smaller communities. Ultimately, this grassroots movement could become a major driver of sustained price appreciation.
Ethereum and Solana
Imran: Ethereum’s price has been boosted by ETF momentum and has performed strongly recently. In contrast, Solana’s price growth has been constrained by supply pressure from FTX legacy holdings and unlocked tokens.
Qiao: Solana’s largest unlock event will occur in March 2025. Once that pressure eases, I expect Solana’s performance to catch up with Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Imran: Solana recently filed for an ETF. If approved, it would be a game-changer. Polymarket predicts a 74% chance of a Solana ETF launching by July 31, 2025.
AI Metaverse and AI Agents
Imran: The AI metaverse is still in Stage One—dominated by extractors, with only 30% being actual builders. Over the next one or two months, we may enter Stage Two, where builders take the lead.
Qiao: AI, as one of the biggest trends, has already shown immense potential. We invested in Goat token from day one, proving our conviction. Going forward, we’ll likely see agent platforms and markets mature significantly.
New Market Models
Qiao: Next year may bring entirely new market models, such as market-driven decision-making. Imagine a sports team selecting a coach—the prediction market could vote on potential outcomes for each candidate, helping identify the optimal choice.
Imran: We’re incubating a similar project using prediction markets to guide decisions on future events. This approach could apply across domains—from sports and business to public policy.
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