Analyst: Bitcoin ETF inflows are the reason behind Bitcoin breaking through the $100,000 mark

Author: Brian McGleenon

Translation: Centreless

Summary:

• Analysts at Bitfinex say whether Bitcoin can break through $100,000 depends on whether short-term demand can balance long-term holders taking profits.

• The head of research at Copper.co says strong demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs could be a key driver pushing Bitcoin prices higher.

Bitfinex analysts believe that Bitcoin's upward momentum hinges on the balance between demand from short-term holders (STH) and supply from long-term holders (LTH).

The analysts noted that STH supply is nearing a cyclical high of 3.28 million Bitcoins—a level historically associated with the beginning of bull market peaks. "This suggests rising retail interest, but also highlights the urgent need for new demand to absorb profit-taking by long-term holders," the analysts said.

Increased profit-taking by long-term holders is putting pressure on Bitcoin’s upward momentum and could hinder further price gains for the market-leading digital asset.

"Over the past two weeks, supply entering the Bitcoin market from long-term holders has remained steady, and a lack of spot demand to absorb this supply could lead to further price declines," they said.

Bitcoin's Break Above $100K Linked to ETF Inflows

As cryptocurrency investors speculate about whether Bitcoin might reach the $100,000 milestone, one analyst says inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could be the catalyst that pushes the digital currency past that threshold.

Fadi Aboualfa, Head of Research at Copper.co, emphasized the potential impact of ETF-driven demand on Bitcoin’s price, noting that recent ETF inflow data paints an optimistic picture—suggesting the $100,000 mark may be within reach.

In an email, he said: "Historically, every additional 10,000 Bitcoins held by ETFs has been associated with an average 2.2% increase in Bitcoin’s price. Given that ETFs currently hold 1.08 million Bitcoins, inflows of approximately $1.9 billion into Bitcoin ETFs—enough to purchase an additional 20,000 Bitcoins—could push Bitcoin’s price above $100,000 within one to two weeks."

On Wednesday, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs remained strong, accumulating $676 million worth of digital assets. Valentin Fournier, analyst at BRN, told The Block: "These large-scale inflows highlight growing institutional investor interest and suggest a solid support level."

Fournier predicts Bitcoin will benefit from these ongoing institutional inflows. "We expect Bitcoin to benefit from sustained institutional inflows over the coming week and potentially attempt a breakout," Fournier said.

According to Glassnode data, November set a new record for spot Bitcoin ETFs. Over the past month, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $6.1 billion in inflows, with $5.4 billion flowing into BlackRock’s IBIT fund.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin market faced some headwinds this week amid reports of major moves by the U.S. government. According to a post by Arkham on X on Tuesday, government authorities transferred approximately 19,800 Bitcoins (worth $1.9 billion) to a Coinbase Prime wallet. These funds were seized in connection with the "Silk Road" case.

Against the backdrop of increasing ETF inflows, Bitcoin’s price has risen approximately 2% over the past 24 hours, trading above the $100,000 mark.