Produced by: TechFlow Research

Written by: Fa Cai🐱

This article was first published on TechFlow by Fa Cai🐱@MaxGain_888. Please credit the source when reposting.

Overall, I maintain my view that we're still in a PvP market environment, with major projects and memes continuously draining liquidity, while lacking fresh external capital inflows. The meme-driven market resembles the 2019 memecoin trend—only a few make money, some hop in and get rekt, while most remain bystanders.

Meme Season

1. Meme coins and BRC20 are essentially a new type of "NFT," replacing traditional NFTs in terms of speculative appeal. This is because both thrive on community-driven momentum and simple, easily shareable content. The logic behind buying memes on secondary markets closely mirrors that of NFTs—largely a capital game where whales collude to pump prices, distribute tokens through narratives, and benefit from small initial supply sizes that make price manipulation easy. Therefore, I don't agree with the idea that meme coins are more suitable for retail investors than institutional projects.

2. The future form of NFTs will likely resemble meme tokens. As discussed with many friends, improving NFT liquidity requires drastically lowering unit prices—ideally to just a few dollars or even cents. With the deployment of Layer 2, Layer 3, and app-specific chains reducing gas fees to negligible levels, it becomes feasible to issue ultra-low-cost NFTs, expanding user reach and enhancing liquidity, effectively converging toward the model of meme coins.

3. Running BRC20 on Bitcoin’s mainnet remains too expensive. Given that the Ordinals protocol already sacrifices much of Bitcoin’s decentralization due to its centralized nature, it makes sense to move such experiments to Bitcoin L2s, Litecoin, or even Dogecoin.

4. Many Bitcoin-based applications may gain renewed attention post-halving, starting from BRC20. Bitcoin L2s and social apps built on top could present new speculative opportunities.

5. The BRC20 speculation wave marks a critical juncture—it theoretically offers a chance to expand the user base and break through usage bottlenecks. However, if only existing market funds are rotating in, the total market cap might cap out around $1B (comparable to Pepe, which enjoys better liquidity and stronger community support). Breaking beyond this would require attracting external capital, but so far, breakout potential remains limited. New narratives and distribution channels needed for mass adoption have yet to emerge in the short term.

Sui

• As one of the most anticipated recent launches, Sui has drawn significant attention. Thanks to a longer preparation period, its overall performance has improved compared to Aptos’ launch, with high热度 in ecosystem projects. Judging from IDO participation numbers and estimated fundraising amounts, there's a strong likelihood that some Sui ecosystem projects could achieve around $100M in circulating market cap.

• Here’s a curated list of popular Sui ecosystem projects.

Curve Update

• Curve USD has completed mainnet deployment and will soon be integrated into Curve’s frontend interface.

• This introduces new real yield opportunities for the Curve ecosystem, boosting protocol profitability and asset utilization. It also benefits the CRV ecosystem and vote-locking tokens like CVX and CNC (See analysis).

• TVL data: https://defillama.com/stablecoin/crvusd

• Tricrypto New Generation (TNG) upgrade: Curve’s TriPool algorithm is more complex than UniV3, offering better price quotes at the cost of higher gas fees. The TNG upgrade aims to reduce TriPool gas consumption by over 50%, bringing it on par with UniV3. This could enable Curve’s non-stablecoin trading volumes to surpass UniV3 in the future. (Related link)