TechFlow reports that on May 30, the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) recently issued updated guidance explicitly prohibiting U.S. citizens, companies, and other U.S. persons from entering into any agreements with the Iranian government or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) concerning “guarantees of safe passage”—even if such arrangements involve no payment whatsoever, they remain prohibited activities.
According to the statement, Iran’s newly established “Strait of Hormuz Authority” plans to provide security services for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and charge corresponding passage fees. The U.S. has added this entity to its sanctions list and warned that any parties engaging in business dealings or cooperation with it risk facing U.S. sanctions.
The U.S. Department of the Treasury emphasized that seeking or accepting “guarantees of safe passage” from Iranian authorities is prohibited regardless of whether payments are involved; the U.S. government will not recognize any form of “paid protection” or similar arrangements.
In financial markets, geopolitical risks continue to weigh on shipping outlooks. According to prediction market Polymarket data, as of now, the market estimates an approximately 8% probability that the Strait of Hormuz will resume full navigation by June 15, and a roughly 34% probability that it will do so by the end of June.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy transit corridors, and its navigability remains under close watch by global energy markets, the shipping industry, and investors worldwide.
