Bitget UEX Daily | Meta scales back AI infrastructure deployment in cloud business; Micron invests $250 million into Trump's account; Waller reiterates no forward guidance

I. Key Headlines

Fed Dynamics

Walsh Reiterates No Forward Guidance, Balance Sheet Reduction Needs Cautious Progress

• Fed Chair Walsh emphasized opening new communication paths, no longer relying on traditional forward guidance, and plans for full internal debate at the next meeting; meanwhile confirmed that reducing the balance sheet is still necessary, but requires time and transparent communication to avoid hasty actions.
• White House Economic Advisor Hassett urged the Fed to avoid raising interest rates, emphasizing that the current economy is a supply-driven boom. Market Impact: This statement reinforces the signal of the Fed's policy shift towards data dependence, helping to stabilize expectations before the non-farm data release, but also increases short-term policy uncertainty, favoring short-term rebounds in risk assets while suppressing USD strength.

International Commodities

Geopolitical Factors Continue to Impact Oil Prices, Gold Maintains High Levels

• The US attempted to persuade Iran to abandon Strait of Hormuz tolls, emphasizing that oil revenue after sanctions removal is far higher than toll revenue, and talks are progressing smoothly.
• The crude oil market is driven by both supply/demand and geopolitical risks. Market Impact: Potential easing of Middle East tensions may alleviate crude oil supply concerns, but global demand prospects remain uncertain, supporting the performance of precious metals as safe-haven assets.

Macroeconomic Policy

Trump Account Focuses on Broad-Based ETFs, Micron and Other Enterprises Respond Actively

• The US Treasury announced the "Trump Account" default investment is State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF, and provides other low-cost index fund options.
• Micron Technology announced injecting $250 million into the account, Trump called its policy a "great success". Market Impact: This move aims to promote long-term equity investment, may boost retail investor confidence and support US stock broad-based indices, but specific effects depend on implementation details.

II. Market Review

Commodities & Forex Performance (Real-time Update)

• Spot Gold: ~ $4,060, +0.63%
• Spot Silver: ~ $60, +1.15%
• WTI Crude: ~ $67.66, -1.27%
• Brent Crude: ~ $70.7, -1.15%
• USD Index (DXY): ~ 101.392 points, -0.02%

Driver Analysis: Gold maintains resilience amid expectations of Fed communication shifts, investors await non-farm data to assess rate cut paths, while geopolitical factors provide some support. Crude oil faces potential easing pressure from Iran-related negotiations, supply risks have alleviated, but global macro uncertainty still limits upside space. The USD Index slightly strengthened, reflecting market caution on Fed policy before data release. Overall, commodities and USD show typical correlation: USD strength suppresses some commodity prices, while safe-haven demand supports gold. In the short term, non-farm employment data will be a key catalyst; if data is strong, it may reinforce expectations of the Fed maintaining restrictive policy, otherwise it favors risk assets. Institutions generally believe asset correlation will continue in the current environment, investors need to focus on the latest progress of the Fed working group on balance sheet and communication mechanisms.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: ~ $59,700 (+2.1%)
• ETH: ~ $1,600 (+1.86%)
• Total Crypto Market Cap: ~ $2.15T (+1.8%).
• Market Liquidation: 24h total liquidation $545 million, short liquidation $280 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current BTC price approx $59,701, short-term long/short liquidation distribution relatively balanced, but above 60,800–61,300 USD area short liquidations dense, if price breaks 60,000 USD, may trigger short stop-losses, pushing market further up. Below 58,000–59,500 USD area gathered more long liquidations, if price falls below this range, may trigger long cascade liquidations, exacerbating short-term downward pressure.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC Spot ETF net outflow approx $223 million day before yesterday, net outflow $77 million yesterday.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow: Closed slightly down approx 0.03%, continuous slight oscillation
• S&P 500: Closed down approx 0.22%, tech weights dragged
• Nasdaq: Closed down approx 0.66%, semiconductor and storage sectors under pressure

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: $197.58 (-1.25%)
• AAPL: $294.38 (+1.73%)
• MSFT: $384.28 (+3.02%)
• GOOGL: $361.21 (+1.07%)
• AMZN: $241.70 (+1.41%)
• META: $612.91 (+8.81%)
• TSLA: $425.30 (+1.12%)
• MU: $1,032.28 (-10.57%)
• SPCX: $157.54 (-7.80%)

Performance Summary and Driver Analysis: Tech sector overall divergent, META surged on news of building own cloud business and selling surplus AI computing power, boosting market confidence in tech giants' diversified revenue; but AI infrastructure related stocks (such as storage, optical communication, some semiconductors) plunged, reflecting supply surplus concerns shifting from "panic buying" to "optimizing existing inventory". Apple, Amazon etc. relatively stable, benefiting from product upgrade expectations, while NVDA etc. hardware stocks face short-term correction pressure. Overall trend shows AI theme shifting from pure hardware to applications and cloud services, individual stock drivers significantly different: company specific strategic adjustments vs. valuation pressure. Non-farm data is about to be released, market sensitivity to tech stocks may further increase.

Sector Movement Observation

Semiconductor/Storage Sector Significant Decline

• Representative Stocks: Micron Technology fell over 10%, Western Digital etc. storage stocks generally fell
• Drivers: Meta cloud business plan implies slowdown in upstream hardware procurement, market worries about AI computing power supply surplus.

AI Application Software Sector Rise

• Representative Stocks: RDDT rose nearly 14%, PLTR etc. followed rise
• Drivers: Institutions believe AI will continue to drive software growth, rather than becoming a "death knell".

III. In-depth Analysis of US Stocks

1. Meta Platforms (META) - Cloud Business Layout Event Overview: Meta Platforms plans to launch cloud infrastructure business, selling AI computing power and model access permissions to external customers, directly competing with giants like AWS, Azure. Meanwhile, the company will sell surplus computing power, aiming to convert previous huge data center investments into sustainable revenue growth. After this strategy was announced, stock price surged nearly 9% in the previous trading session, showing market's positive response to commercialization path. This move is not only an improvement in infrastructure utilization, but also a landmark action of tech giants' AI strategy transforming from investment phase to monetization phase.

Market Interpretation: Institutional analysis believes this marks tech giants starting to value commercialization monetization of AI infrastructure, helps alleviate market concerns about high capital expenditures, meanwhile may have structural impact on upstream hardware supplier demand. Diversified revenue sources expected to enhance Meta's competitiveness in AI ecosystem, but intensified competition landscape will also test execution efficiency.

Investment Implication: Closely track Meta cloud business landing progress, its impact on overall AI ecosystem is worth attention. Revenue diversification expected to strengthen long-term competitiveness, suggest combining financial reports to verify return on capital and market share changes.

2. Micron Technology (MU) - Trump Government Fund Account Investment Event Overview: Micron Technology announced injecting $250 million into the fund account established by the Trump government (Trump Account), used to enhance children and family long-term savings opportunities, and cover children in company operation regions. Trump publicly praised this move as a policy success model. This investment echoes the company's previous hundreds of billions of dollars commitment in US semiconductor manufacturing and R&D, although stock price short-term dragged by semiconductor sector overall, but corporate action highlights policy attraction and social responsibility combination.

Market Interpretation: Institutions generally view this as a positive signal of enterprises deeply participating in US long-term industry and investment plans, expected to boost confidence in related tech stocks, and strengthen stability of semiconductor industry chain under policy support.

Investment Implication: Focus on potential catalytic effect of enterprise and policy interaction on stock price. Storage chip demand long-term positive under AI drive, suggest grasping investment opportunities of policy dividends and industry cycle resonance.

3. Apple (AAPL) - Chip Procurement and Product Upgrade Event Overview: Apple is negotiating with the Trump government on chip procurement, meanwhile actively preparing new iPad Pro and MacBook Pro product upgrades. Against the background of storage chip price fluctuations, the company seeks supply chain diversification to hedge cost pressure. This strategy combined with product innovation, expected to stabilize supply chain and support medium to long-term growth.

Market Interpretation: This move is seen as Apple's proactive management of geopolitical and cost risks, product upgrade plans provide new momentum for revenue, market expects supply chain optimization will improve earnings resilience.

Investment Implication: Supply chain diversification and innovative product lines will further enhance Apple's risk resistance ability. Suggest investors focus on subsequent financial reports verification of procurement agreements and new product contributions, grasp structural opportunities in consumer electronics cycle warming.

IV. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1.Meta cloud business expansion may indirectly benefit blockchain and decentralized computing projects, market focuses on AI and crypto infrastructure fusion opportunities.

2.Ethereum non-profit organization Ethereum Institutional announced establishment, positioned as "institutional-level unified entrance" of Ethereum ecosystem, focusing on connecting global large financial institutions with Ethereum network, promoting institutional adoption of on-chain financial infrastructure, the organization has received financial support, investors include Bitmine, Sharplink, and Ethereum co-founder Joe Lubin etc.

3.SpaceX has shown investors a handheld AI device prototype, design thinner than iPhone, between small screen touch phone and RabbitR1 etc. AI devices. The device is described as running proprietary operating system, and integrated xAI's artificial intelligence technology, reportedly adopting Qualcomm (181.92, -2.87, -1.55%) Snapdragon chip solution. However, Elon Musk quickly responded on X platform, calling related reports "completely false". Notably, Musk previously stated "Starlink phone is not impossible", and said it will be "fully optimized around highest energy efficiency neural networks".

4.According to Jin10 citing Financial Times, after US government intervened Anthropic and OpenAI's model release plans, AI guidelines expected to be announced as early as next week.

5.US Treasury today announced "Trump Account" investment product portfolio, including initial default investment plan launched at launch, and another four low-cost index fund options selectable by relevant parties in coming months. When account starts, all funds invested into "Trump Account" will be invested in State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (SPYM).

V. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Preview

• July 2 (Thursday) US June non-farm employment population, unemployment rate, last week initial jobless claims announced, market expects new employment 113,000, unemployment rate 4.3%; ★★★July 3 (Friday) US stocks closed due to Independence Day holiday;

Institutional Views:

Well-known investment bank analysts believe Fed Chair Walsh's communication shift marks evolution of policy framework, short-term market will focus on non-farm data to judge economic resilience and rate cut probability. Gold and crypto assets show safe-haven attributes amid uncertainty, while crude oil under pressure from geopolitical easing signals. US stock tech stocks divergence continues, AI commercialization becomes new narrative core. Overall, institutions maintain neutral to cautious stance, suggest focusing on data-driven volatility, balance growth and defensive assets in allocation. Bitcoin etc. crypto assets short-term rebound sustainability depends on ETF flows and macro environment, long-term bullish on institutional adoption trend.

Disclaimer: Above content organized by AI search, manual verification only for publication, not as any investment advice. Data in text inevitably exists deviations, please refer to market real-time data.