From fair launches to attention capital markets, Web3 AI primary market dynamics are undergoing a major transformation

Author: 0xJeff

Translation: Tim, PANews

The Web3 AI sector has shifted within a single quarter from fair launch models (Virtuals) directly to mid-sized teams with moderate FDV strategies—namely, the attention capital market.

Some projects from the Virtuals ecosystem and CreatorBid launches showed strong initial performance, but their product appeal gradually weakened over time. This decline in momentum is proportional to the project's scale, how early the team started, and the amount of funding raised for product development.

As previously discussed, the core challenge facing fair launch teams is the widespread lack of funding prior to token issuance. Most teams cannot afford the cost of self-funding early development. The fair launch model relies on transaction fees from token trading as the primary revenue source to sustain operations.

This does not solve the cold start problem. In practice, it often involves one or two independent developers launching a project together, setting a roadmap, releasing a demo to generate community excitement, and then issuing a token. The token price gets hyped, until the bubble bursts and momentum collapses.

The only viable path forward is for developers to self-fund product initiation, gradually hire a team, and eventually launch a minimum viable product (MVP).

The current market shows two clear trends: declining attractiveness of fair launch models combined with insufficient supply of high-quality AI products, leading capital and market attention to shift elsewhere. Mid-sized teams with FDVs between $40 million and $80 million—those that have spent 1–2 years quietly building—now stand to benefit. These teams have refined their products to near-scalable maturity.

Many have spent months conducting product testing, interviews, gathering feedback, and iterating improvements.

This trend is amplified by the rise of the attention capital market. The transformation underway in the InfoFi space is turning noise into signal through capital commitment. Spam participants are proving through actions that they are not merely here to "farm airdrops," but genuinely believe in the content they publish.

A strong consensus among quality teams has formed. We will now see clearer data metrics distinguishing those who farm and exit quickly from those who truly trust the project and team and support them with real capital.

We are now witnessing the intense chemistry between Kaito and Cookie at their first joint launch.

Theoriq vs Almanak

Theoriq launched with an initial FDV of $75 million (50% discount compared to its previous VC valuation), with token vesting structured as: 25% unlocked at TGE + 37.5% unlocked after 1 year + the remainder linearly released over the following year.

Almanak has an FDV of $90 million, 100% unlocked. Top 25 Almanak users can invest at a $75 million FDV.

Theoriq offered highly favorable token terms (50% discount vs. prior VC pricing). In response to community feedback on improving unlock conditions for the token generation event, the team has adjusted the vesting schedule to 100% unlocked at TGE.

The current FDVs for both projects are $75 million and either $75 million or $90 million respectively. Both have a high probability of performing well, as they are flagship launches for Kaito and Cookie (who need to drive up token prices to attract more high-quality teams).

Both teams are building products with real value for DeFi, including scalable infrastructure and various applications aimed at attracting more users and capital onto the chain.

Which project should I invest in? Why?

I'm investing in both. I've already invested in Almanak's Legion round and will add more in this ACM round.

Almanak's product is better prepared and is likely to achieve product-market fit earlier than Theoriq.

Theoriq demonstrates exceptional strategic ambition. The team is building vertical-specific workflows for targeted clients, continuously enhancing the AlphaSwarm framework, and showcasing full technical efficiency through its infrastructure layer. Its ultimate goal is to become the preferred service discovery platform—or "app store"—for meta-agent orchestration, enabling intelligent matching ecosystems that dynamically allocate optimal agent clusters based on user needs.

Almanak will focus on an AI vault system—secure, auditable, transparent, and verifiable—designed to meet institutional capital requirements while empowering creators to expand and optimize vault strategies via smart contracts, professional agent programs, and the most user-friendly interface possible.

In the short term, a project's success depends critically on execution of GTM (go-to-market) strategy at launch, market-making capabilities, and the ability to absorb initial selling pressure post-listing.

Overall, based on launch performance, we may witness a new positive revaluation trend for KAITO and COOKIE (driven by direct percentage airdrop returns and increased staker allocation shares).

I'm very excited and look forward to seeing more AI teams launch new projects on Kaito and Cookie soon.